Democrats Seeking to Flip Seven State Legislatures

[Frodo]

Namely -Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa, with possibilities of increasing Democratic numbers in other state legislatures:

Democrats plan ‘unprecedented’ effort to flip state legislative chambers in 2020 state races

DLCC leaders say their top targets next year will be flipping both chambers of legislatures in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while also winning control of House chambers in Iowa, Texas and Michigan and the Senate chamber in Minnesota. The organization also plans to work closely with groups that plan to heavily contest races in other states.

In Florida, former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has teamed up with the Forward Majority political committee to make a major push to win legislative seats in Florida. Republicans hold 73 out of 120 seats in the Florida House of Representatives and 23 of the 40 Senate seats.

(…) In many cases, Democratic targets for state legislative victories closely align with the expected battleground states in the presidential contest. That overlay is helping Democrats organize earlier than usual in those states, while energizing the party’s national network of volunteers, said Catherine Vaughan, a leader of Swing Left and Flippable, both of which formed after the 2016 election.

And for anyone interested, here's a direct link to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee:

https://www.dlcc.org/

[Skill and Chance]

This is smart.  Honestly flipping some large state legislatures in the redistricting cycle could be more consequential for Democrats in the long run than flipping the WH if the Senate stays Republican.

[Oryxslayer]

Some of these are more likely than others. Minnesota and Arizona (at least State  House) are far easier than Pennsylvania. Then you have Texas where local Dems are already working hard to push to envelope and walk Beto's path.

[Skill and Chance]

Some of these are more likely than others. Minnesota and Arizona (at least State  House) are far easier than Pennsylvania. Then you have Texas where local Dems are already working hard to push to envelope and walk Beto's path.

Yes, I don't quite understand the emphasis on Pennsylvania. They got nowhere in 2018 and between Wolf and the 5D/2R state supreme court they are completely safe from a gerrymander in PA.

IMO, better to spend the time and money reaching for the GA or FL lower house.  Even if taking control isn't viable, giving the GOP majorities enough of a scare that they don't get too aggressive with redistricting is. 

[ctherainbow]

Pennsylvania?  I mean, they can flip the State House, but short of a Lancaster County miracle, the State Senate is out of reach.

[Continential]

Unless Trump is voted down in Pennslyvania by Wagner margins, I doubt that the PA Senate would have a Democratic Senate.

[Frenchrepublican]

Namely -Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa, with possibilities of increasing Democratic numbers in other state legislatures:

Democrats plan ‘unprecedented’ effort to flip state legislative chambers in 2020 state races

DLCC leaders say their top targets next year will be flipping both chambers of legislatures in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while also winning control of House chambers in Iowa, Texas and Michigan and the Senate chamber in Minnesota. The organization also plans to work closely with groups that plan to heavily contest races in other states.

In Florida, former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has teamed up with the Forward Majority political committee to make a major push to win legislative seats in Florida. Republicans hold 73 out of 120 seats in the Florida House of Representatives and 23 of the 40 Senate seats.

(…) In many cases, Democratic targets for state legislative victories closely align with the expected battleground states in the presidential contest. That overlay is helping Democrats organize earlier than usual in those states, while energizing the party’s national network of volunteers, said Catherine Vaughan, a leader of Swing Left and Flippable, both of which formed after the 2016 election.

And for anyone interested, here's a direct link to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee:

https://www.dlcc.org/

AZ and MN make a lot of sense, but FL and IA are not really winnable for them, and even PA is a very uphill battle considering that they will almsot certainly lose some conservative seats in Central/West PA (the seat in Johnstown or HD123 for example)

[Adam Griffin]

Flip those 3 and pass the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, and pass it through the 3 states where we already have control...

(Minnesota would be the next logical choice)

[lfromnj]

Namely -Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa, with possibilities of increasing Democratic numbers in other state legislatures:

Democrats plan ‘unprecedented’ effort to flip state legislative chambers in 2020 state races

DLCC leaders say their top targets next year will be flipping both chambers of legislatures in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while also winning control of House chambers in Iowa, Texas and Michigan and the Senate chamber in Minnesota. The organization also plans to work closely with groups that plan to heavily contest races in other states.

In Florida, former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has teamed up with the Forward Majority political committee to make a major push to win legislative seats in Florida. Republicans hold 73 out of 120 seats in the Florida House of Representatives and 23 of the 40 Senate seats.

(…) In many cases, Democratic targets for state legislative victories closely align with the expected battleground states in the presidential contest. That overlay is helping Democrats organize earlier than usual in those states, while energizing the party’s national network of volunteers, said Catherine Vaughan, a leader of Swing Left and Flippable, both of which formed after the 2016 election.

And for anyone interested, here's a direct link to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee:

https://www.dlcc.org/

AZ and MN make a lot of sense, but FL and IA are not really winnable for them, and even PA is a very uphill battle considering that they will almsot certainly lose some conservative seats in Central/West PA (the seat in Johnstown or HD123 for example)

Eh Iowa is probably worth the long shot coz its pretty close overall. Just hold some of the tougher districts and spend a few hundred grand in some seats and you flip the state house.

[OBD]

Namely -Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa, with possibilities of increasing Democratic numbers in other state legislatures:

Democrats plan ‘unprecedented’ effort to flip state legislative chambers in 2020 state races

DLCC leaders say their top targets next year will be flipping both chambers of legislatures in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while also winning control of House chambers in Iowa, Texas and Michigan and the Senate chamber in Minnesota. The organization also plans to work closely with groups that plan to heavily contest races in other states.

In Florida, former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has teamed up with the Forward Majority political committee to make a major push to win legislative seats in Florida. Republicans hold 73 out of 120 seats in the Florida House of Representatives and 23 of the 40 Senate seats.

(…) In many cases, Democratic targets for state legislative victories closely align with the expected battleground states in the presidential contest. That overlay is helping Democrats organize earlier than usual in those states, while energizing the party’s national network of volunteers, said Catherine Vaughan, a leader of Swing Left and Flippable, both of which formed after the 2016 election.

And for anyone interested, here's a direct link to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee:

https://www.dlcc.org/

AZ and MN make a lot of sense, but FL and IA are not really winnable for them, and even PA is a very uphill battle considering that they will almsot certainly lose some conservative seats in Central/West PA (the seat in Johnstown or HD123 for example)

Eh Iowa is probably worth the long shot coz its pretty close overall. Just hold some of the tougher districts and spend a few hundred grand in some seats and you flip the state house.

It's really not worth it in terms of redistricting, though.

[Zaybay]

Namely -Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa, with possibilities of increasing Democratic numbers in other state legislatures:

Democrats plan ‘unprecedented’ effort to flip state legislative chambers in 2020 state races

DLCC leaders say their top targets next year will be flipping both chambers of legislatures in Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while also winning control of House chambers in Iowa, Texas and Michigan and the Senate chamber in Minnesota. The organization also plans to work closely with groups that plan to heavily contest races in other states.

In Florida, former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has teamed up with the Forward Majority political committee to make a major push to win legislative seats in Florida. Republicans hold 73 out of 120 seats in the Florida House of Representatives and 23 of the 40 Senate seats.

(…) In many cases, Democratic targets for state legislative victories closely align with the expected battleground states in the presidential contest. That overlay is helping Democrats organize earlier than usual in those states, while energizing the party’s national network of volunteers, said Catherine Vaughan, a leader of Swing Left and Flippable, both of which formed after the 2016 election.

And for anyone interested, here's a direct link to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee:

https://www.dlcc.org/

AZ and MN make a lot of sense, but FL and IA are not really winnable for them, and even PA is a very uphill battle considering that they will almsot certainly lose some conservative seats in Central/West PA (the seat in Johnstown or HD123 for example)

Eh Iowa is probably worth the long shot coz its pretty close overall. Just hold some of the tougher districts and spend a few hundred grand in some seats and you flip the state house.

It's really not worth it in terms of redistricting, though.

It actually is. While IA has a commission for relatively fair maps, a trifecta can ignore their requests and draw their own gerrymander. By taking an IA state chamber, we can secure the commission's ability to provide a fair map.

[Yellowhammer]

It actually is. While IA has a commission for relatively fair maps, a trifecta can ignore their requests and draw their own gerrymander. By taking an IA state chamber, we can secure the commission's ability to provide a fair map.

“Fair map” =Democratic gerrymander

[Nyvin]

It actually is. While IA has a commission for relatively fair maps, a trifecta can ignore their requests and draw their own gerrymander. By taking an IA state chamber, we can secure the commission's ability to provide a fair map.

“Fair map” =Democratic gerrymander

Is a Democratic Gerrymander any map that doesn't maximize republican representation?

[lfromnj]

It actually is. While IA has a commission for relatively fair maps, a trifecta can ignore their requests and draw their own gerrymander. By taking an IA state chamber, we can secure the commission's ability to provide a fair map.

“Fair map” =Democratic gerrymander

I IIRC iowa literally uses a computer program, I guess a fair map based on COI might have a lean D based around Desmoines while IA 1 and 2 are still tilt R districts but changes IA 4th to even Safer R. The current map however is super compact.