August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[DC Al Fine]

Whoever it ends up being, I hope it triggers the SoCon/Wexiteers to the point that they split off & form another party.

I know you aren't a Tory, so this doesn't quite apply to you, but you'd be amazed at how few pundits and Red Tory types realise how precarious the Tory coalition is (and come to think of it, how unpopular fiscon-soclib is). Half the pro life vote leaving, would pretty much ensure the right can't form government.

What about Rona Ambrose and Lisa Raitt?

Jason Kenney and Brad Wall both mentioned Ambrose recently, so I suspect something is in the works there. Someone needs to be the Western/Blue candidate, and she'd fit the part.

Raitt got 3% of the vote in the last leadership race and lost her seat in the election. Classic case of the media loving a candidate and no one else.

[DC Al Fine]

Since the contest has already begun. Sources are Globe, La Presse, Le Devoir, CP, Star for those wondering.

Out: Bernard Lord, Brad Wall, Doug Ford, Brian Pallister, Caroline Mulroney, Max Bernier

In: Erin O'Toole

Maybe: Rona Ambrose, Peter MacKay, Michelle Rempel, Pierre Poilievre, Candice Bergen, Gerard Deltell, Marilyn Gladu, Mike Chong, Lisa Raitt.

As far as factional candidates go, I'm hearing that Right Now is trying to draft Garnett Genius as the socon candidate.

[DC Al Fine]

I know you aren't a Tory, so this doesn't quite apply to you, but you'd be amazed at how few pundits and Red Tory types realise how precarious the Tory coalition is (and come to think of it, how unpopular fiscon-soclib is). Half the pro life vote leaving, would pretty much ensure the right can't form government.

Where else can they go? The Christian Heritage Party?

CHP, PPC, Wexit , some new party one of the pro-life MP's formed... my point really wasn't about the pro life movement specifically though.

A lot of pundits and Red Tories think that liberalizing is a cure all for the Tories without any downsides. If (and this probably won't happen, but hypothetically), a new leader pushed too far in one direction and caused even a marginally bigger schism than Bernier, it would be a huge problem. The portion of the population open to voting for the right in Canada just isn't that big. For every socon, or free marketeer, or whatever vote lost to schism, you would need to win another increasingly difficult to win vote from the left just to break even. Bernier didn't have much of an impact but even if he got 4-5% of the vote, it would have been very difficult for Scheer to win.

[DC Al Fine]

Since the contest has already begun. Sources are Globe, La Presse, Le Devoir, CP, Star for those wondering.

Out: Bernard Lord, Brad Wall, Doug Ford, Brian Pallister, Caroline Mulroney, Max Bernier

In: Erin O'Toole

Maybe: Rona Ambrose, Peter MacKay, Michelle Rempel, Pierre Poilievre, Candice Bergen, Gerard Deltell, Marilyn Gladu, Mike Chong, Lisa Raitt.

Just noticed his name. Geez, what is it with the media and  speculating about old retired pols running? I'm half expecting to see Mike Harris or Jean Charest's names come up in 'who's running' articles.

Screw it, I don't care of he's pushing 90, I'm backing John Crosbie for leader!

[DC Al Fine]

Since the contest has already begun. Sources are Globe, La Presse, Le Devoir, CP, Star for those wondering.

Out: Bernard Lord, Brad Wall, Doug Ford, Brian Pallister, Caroline Mulroney, Max Bernier

In: Erin O'Toole

Maybe: Rona Ambrose, Peter MacKay, Michelle Rempel, Pierre Poilievre, Candice Bergen, Gerard Deltell, Marilyn Gladu, Mike Chong, Lisa Raitt.

Just noticed his name. Geez, what is it with the media and  speculating about old retired pols running? I'm half expecting to see Mike Harris or Jean Charest's names come up in 'who's running' articles.

Screw it, I don't care of he's pushing 90, I'm backing John Crosbie for leader!

I will now collect my accolades

[DC Al Fine]

The whole notion of Jean Charest as fefderal Tory leader is ludicrous. First of all, to Tory members he is seen as a Liberal and second of all, he was the most unpopular premier in the history of Quebec so its not as if Quebec Tories will want to collectively commit suicide either

Is the trend of terribly unsuitable candidates wanting to run and being feted by the media a uniquely Tory tradition, or do the Liberals and NDP also have this problem?

[DC Al Fine]

Charest sounds very interested, and QC isn't very interested in MacKay.

Charest might be hobbled by the ongoing UPAC investigation into illegal PLQ financing given the contest rule that bars candidates under police investigation or who may be subject to criminal charges or professional sanction. Rayes would support Charest, and Deltell is strongly considering running.

Wasn't Rayes an Adequiste? Bit of an odd endorsement choice.

[DC Al Fine]

Angus Reid has a poll out with some interesting data about why the Tories lost last time. (PDF warning)

In the poll,  voters were divided into "core conservatives" (i.e. Tory voters), "possible conservatives", "unlikely conservatives" and "never conservatives", and asked their opinion about the Tories on a variety of issues. I'm mainly concerned with possible conservatives here, since the core vote plus half the possibles would be majority territory. Among possible conservatives, the poll found the following major problems

1) 64% don't agree that the Tories welcome people from different backgrounds.

2) 59% don't believe the party reflects their region of Canada.

3) 54% believe the party did a poor job of communicating what it stands for.

4) 46% think the Tories need to take climate change more seriously

5) Only 38% think the party is too socially conservative and only 24% think the party represents "the past". Interestingly enough, possible conservatives are less reticent about Tory soconism than actual Tory voters.

[DC Al Fine]

Which leads me to my thoughts on the leadership race:

I'm becoming increasingly nervous about the Tories' prospects in the next election. The consensus among party elites, staffers, and even large parts of the membership seems to be that "Pipelines and Pride Parades" is the solution to the party's woes. That is, the primary cause of the loss was Scheer's social stances, so not much change is required beyond liberalizing on abortion and LGBT issues. This solution would be disastrous for the party.

While I am not so foolish as to think that social stances were a non-issue, "Pipelines and Pride Parades" would ignore several key problems with swing voters that are even more pressing. The Harper era goodwill among immigrants is mostly gone, we don't have a credible 'shield' on climate change, and worst of all, the party is coming off as increasingly West-centric. I know personally, even though I should be a core Tory voter, I was starting to find myself alienated by the constant oil, pipeline, and Alberta rhetoric, with no real talk about the Maritimes.

So with that in mind, I'm looking to support a leader who realizes that "Pipelines and Pride Parades" isn't the way to go. We need a leader who realizes that there are other serious problems for the party, and wants to try and solve them. Bonus points if they want the platform to be more than rehashed Harper-'08 boutique tax credits.

[DC Al Fine]

Geez that's a quick turn around. No waiting six months to see what the field is

[DC Al Fine]

Of possibilities so far here are my thoughts:

Ambrose: If she runs, very good chance she wins it as she is from Alberta so can appeal to Western base, yet moderate enough to appeal to more moderate side especially in Eastern half of the country.  Also reasonably well liked so on paper at least looks good in a national election, but obviously one must be cautious here as both Jim Prentice and John Tory (for Ontario PCs in 2007) looked good on paper but didn't perform so well.  But all signs now suggests she doesn't want it.

Charest: Long odds he actually wins it as Western base and those from Reform wing cannot stand him especially with his stances on climate change and gun control.  That being said its every riding gets equal weight so in Quebec where membership is small and Atlantic Canada where most come from PC side (that is assuming MacKay doesn't run) he could do surprisingly well but unlikely to win leadership, still could play key role in ensuring a more moderate vs. right wing candidate wins as his second choices will probably flow that way.  Could help the party in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, but probably helps PPC in Prairies where he is seen as too much of a Red Tory, nonetheless, Tories can lose a lot of votes there without losing many seats so might not help the party a lot in a general election vote wise, but would seat wise as shifts would be in all the right places.

MacKay: Comes from the former PC wing, originally from Atlantic Canada and lives in Ontario so should do well in Eastern half of the country.  Unlike Charest I don't think Reform wing and Western base minds him as much, still not likely their first choice but if final ballot MacKay vs. Polievere, most Charest's supporters would likely flow to MacKay and same if MacKay vs. Charest, most Polievere would go to him.  Being moderate and from Atlantic Canada as well as charismatic helps, but I think is a bit overrated and underperformed as cabinet minister.  But still has more potential to widen tent than narrow it.

O'Toole: Not a household name, but did alright last time.  His main challenge is not falling off the ballot early on as probably won't be high on people's first choices, but is respected by all wings so will get a lot of second choices and could emerge as a consensus candidate as someone like Charest or Polievere is bound to anger one side of party.  As a sort of bland non-offensive, how well he does in general election will depend on how popular Trudeau is.  If Trudeau's approval rebounds, he is not the type who can excite people thus probably won't do too well, but as someone who is seen as non-risky if Trudeau's approval ratings fall further, I could see him doing well as being seen as a safe choice.  A lot like Brian Pallister in Manitoba who is not overly well liked, but not scary either and when people were ready to punt the NDP, he didn't scare them away.

Polievere:  Very popular with base and being born in Alberta but living in Ontario helps him build a base in both West and Ontario.  Also shares the hatred and anger much of the membership does of Trudeau.  So while I think he has a great chance of becoming next leader, his chances in a general election are much weaker.  Too much of a pit bull so likely to fire up the base, but I am skeptical about his ability to appeal to swing voters.  Still, as we saw with Doug Ford, if people are mad enough just about anyone can win, but I don't see Trudeau's approval ratings falling to Wynne levels which is what would be needed for him to win.

As for dark horses

Detell and Chong are others who might enter.  Detell especially if Charest doesn't run might stand a better chance and being from CAQ instead of PLQ his conservative credentials are stronger so less issue with Western base while can make a strong case he can bring the same coalition that helped elect Francois Legault provincially into the federal Tories.  Chong looks better after the bad results, but I still don't think party has come around to supporting a carbon tax even if majority of Canadians have.  Otherwise Chong is a great candidate to appeal to swing voters, but not popular amongst base who play a big role in choosing leader.

Ambrose wins it if she runs I think. She's popular with most groups and it's hard to see an Anyone But Rona movement developing. But assuming she doesn't run...

Reds
Charest will probably flop. He isn't even popular with actual Quebec Tories. He'll probably run up the score in the rotten boroughs in Quebec but that's it. MacKay has a better shot, but Charest's rotten boroughs might sink him early. Also Quebec+Atlantic isn't near enough, so he'll need to make some noise in Ontario. Chong is lol. If Scheer didn't have "it" then Chong definitely doesn't. Plus there aee more credible Red Tory candidates this time.

Blues
Deltell is an intriguing candidate as a Franco Blue, who isn't a political idiot *cough Bernier cough*. Not sure he can break out of that Quebec base though. He doesn't have the free market thing going for him like Bernier. O'Toole strikes me as the guy who would win in an old style delegated convention, but he's a bit too bland to win under the current rules IMO. Who knows, maybe he wins like Scheer did last time .

I can see Pollievre winning if there isn't a credible Western candidate. SoCons + Western base + enough of Ontario, should be plenty to win. That's a big if though.

[DC Al Fine]

As things currently stand, I guess I'd give a very tepid vote to Pollievre. He's too much of a bulldog and he doesn't pass DC Al Fine's patented Will-He-Betray-SoCons-Test^TM, but my main priorities were that the leader be a social conservative and not a Westerner, and he clearly is the best candidate of the bunch based on that. *Shrug*

[DC Al Fine]

So Gladu is going to be the token female candidate? lol...

With Ambrose out, the Tories can say goodbye to winning the next election. Especially if they elect Poilievre (sorry RB).

Eh, I don't see how Ambrose would've fixed the party's Western-centric problems (which IIRC Angus Reid found was even more of a problem than Scheer's social conservatism).

MacKay or Deltell (or yes even Pollievre) would be better on that front.

[DC Al Fine]

After all my talk about the West-centric Tory party, it looks like there might not even be an MP from the Western caucus in the race

[DC Al Fine]

Its interesting that in the last CPC leadership contest there were several social conservatives in the mix such as Scheer, Trost and Lemieux (at the time Bernier was supposedly more of a libertarian but he has since revealed himself to be a social conservative too). So far in this year's contest its not clear if there will be ANYONE who is an unabashed SoCon even running.

I'm not sure anyone in my circles would call Bernier a socon haha

But yes, that's an interesting point. The rules this time make it very difficult for a backbencher to make a factional run this time, and there aren't exactly a ton of socons on the front bench. What's more, even the supposed 'soft socon' candidate has already thrown socons under the bus in the French press.

That leaves ~25-30% of the party without a candidate. It will be interesting to see how the social liberal candidates will approach these voters. Winning the socons in a soconless race would be a huge bump, but overpromising could lead to problems in the election both with the media and the socons themselves.

[DC Al Fine]

Pollievre tacking left also probably explains this:

https://twitter.com/ErinOTooleMP/status/1218209938876530688

[DC Al Fine]

Its interesting that in the last CPC leadership contest there were several social conservatives in the mix such as Scheer, Trost and Lemieux (at the time Bernier was supposedly more of a libertarian but he has since revealed himself to be a social conservative too). So far in this year's contest its not clear if there will be ANYONE who is an unabashed SoCon even running.

There might be but some unknown name.  I think after loss, its pretty social conservatism is a vote loser and most people committed to the party want to win not just be leader to promote a certain agenda, they also want to implement it too.

That's true, but I'm afraid the party and consultant class are overcorrecting on this. Social conservatives cannot be expected to vote for people who have contempt for them. The Conservative Party, while diverse, cannot win without social conservatives in the tent.

Even ignoring my socon bugbear, the party elites and consultants seem to have decided to go after the vanishingly small electorate in the "bottom right" quadrant of the political compass instead of the much more numerous "top left" voters that brought the right so much success in the rest of the West.

Guess we'll get to see Trudeau copy his father's election record

[DC Al Fine]

If MacKay won the leadership, would a safe seat MP in the west or Ontario resign to allow him to take a seat in Parliament, or would he wait until the next election to contest a seat in Nova Scotia?

Someone will resign in a safe seat. The question is, who?

Off the top of my head (though not based on any information in particular), it's possible we could see Peter Kent step aside. He's been in parliament for a few terms now, and Thornhill is the safest non-rural CPC seat that close to Toronto, where the CPC wants to make inroads and where MacKay currently lives.

According to Wikipedia (so take that for what you will), MacKay's early endorsees from caucus are Ed Fast (Abbotsford), Blaine Calkins (Red Deer--Lacombe), and Dean Allison (Niagara West). All are MPs serving their 5th or 6th terms representing safe CPC seats, so they could all conceivably step aside. I'm not aware of any connections MacKay would have to any of their ridings, although that's not necessarily a deal breaker.

Is Scheer planning on staying in Parliament long term? If he's quitting once the new leader is picked, his seat would do.

[DC Al Fine]

What's with all of these no names lining up to run? They can't possibly afford the $500,000 to get in.

Anyway, a question about socons (to DC especially): say the Tories nominate a moderate with some disdain for the movement. What happens in the next election to their votes? Do they stay home? I can't imagine the Cons would lose ridings like Niagara West or Abbotsford if they do. And then there are the Socon immigrant communities who are in swing ridings. Maybe them staying home would hurt. But would they?

Just mild disdain? Probably nothing happens, especially if Trudeau pulls something like the abortion attestation again.

Now suppose the new leader's disdain for the movement is more than mild and makes many socons feel unwelcome in the party. I would expect somewhat depressed socon turnout, an uptick in the number of and support for Christian Heritage candidates, and possibly some modest movement to the PPC/Wexit.

Socons are actually fairly evenly distributed across Canada. E.g. Evangelicals make up ~5-8% of the population in most non-Quebec cities. What does that mean for the final result? Nothing huge. The Tories aren't going to lose any safe seats over it. Instead, I would expect the Tories to lose a few races on the margin (wherever the margin is in that election), because their GOTV wasn't quite as good as they hoped and/or the CHP got 1.25% in the seat instead of the expected 0.5%. That sort of thing.

All that being said, I don't expect us to get all that alienated after the leadership race. I'd expect a competent centrist with a sense of his coalition, would do what Harper did and refuse to touch social issues while giving us a couple of the non-divisive things on our wishlist to keep us happy.

[DC Al Fine]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DerekSloanCPC/status/1220012199042670592

Justice critic and first term socon MP Derek Sloan has thrown his hat in the ring.

[DC Al Fine]

Poilievre says he won't run for family reasons and won't be endorsing anyone yet.

WTF!?!

This is a huge surprise. Something big must've happened.

With him out of the way, though, it's now MacKay's to lose.

Yeah, signing Jenni Byrne and John Baird to not make a run doesn't make any sense. Maybe someone in another camp has something on him?

This is starting to be no contest. Did Poilievre figure it would be hard to win, maybe after losing social conservative support he would have needed to make it possible ? Strange to drop out 3 days before his official launch.

I found that whole stretch confusing. His path to victory seemed kind of narrow with MacKay shaping up to be a powerhouse, so it's odd that he tossed us so early. That 15% that voted Trost and Lemieux over Scheer last time would've come in handy.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1221433878524637185

If Michael Chong led the Conservatives, then they could probably form a government, but they'd have to convince their base that the carbon tax (which was originally a conservative idea) isn't an evil communist plot.

Regardless, though, even if he doesn't win the leadership, I hope whoever wins (in all likelihood, MacKay) does indeed let Chong handle the party's environment/climate policy.

Elections aren't an exercise in checking candidates' relative positions on a one axis political spectrum. I like Chong. Love his efforts on parliamentary reform. But the man's lack of charisma makes Andrew Scheer look like Justin Trudeau.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1221100162271121410

Honestly, I struggle to see the point of this. O'Toole represents largely the same constituency of voters as MacKay, but is less popular among them. I expect his campaign to focus on foreign policy issues but I simply don't think that's enough to get him the win, & it's not like he's not already guaranteed a Cabinet post in a MacKay government, so it doesn't seem as if there's really a need to up his profile. I don't know why he's trying.

I thought the same thing initially, but the way the field's shaken out, it's gone pretty well for him. There's a huge chunk of members who are to the right of MacKay but aren't voting for factional socon candidates.

He has a clear (if uphill) path to victory this time at least.

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

Running on a far right platform is a terrible way to win a majority. Maybe 30-35% of the country thinks that way, but that won't win them anything. They need suburbanites (and the minorities that live in them) to win. We are not Australia. We have lots of racists sure, but not enough of them for the Conservative to appease to them.

The liberal party here got swings to the liberal party in lower-middle class/working class suburban areas and especially amongst minority voting groups, alongside massive swings amongst your small-town working class people, especially those that worked in mining industry.. 

I'm not saying run on a far-right platform, but a right-populist message that talks about about reducing immigration, stoping refugees and "excessive" climate action, that message could win.

Analogous to Ford Nation in Ontario, in fact (and to a certain extent, the federal Jason Kenney ethnoburban-outreach approach)

Ford won due to "special circumstances". Anyone would've won that election. The only thing that could've stopped him would've been a competent NDP campaign.

All the same, it was a measure of *where* he won, or where the PCs gained (or lost) most ground relative to previous elections...

Agreed.

Given polling and election results in the rest of the Anglosphere, it's clear that going after the "upper left" quadrant can be a winning strategy, while going after "bottom rights" is a more dubious proposition.

Obviously the federal Canadian version of this will look different than Trump or BoJo (or even Ford), but if we can get a 'professional' leader pushing in that direction, it could be very effective.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1221100162271121410

Honestly, I struggle to see the point of this. O'Toole represents largely the same constituency of voters as MacKay, but is less popular among them. I expect his campaign to focus on foreign policy issues but I simply don't think that's enough to get him the win, & it's not like he's not already guaranteed a Cabinet post in a MacKay government, so it doesn't seem as if there's really a need to up his profile. I don't know why he's trying.

I thought the same thing initially, but the way the field's shaken out, it's gone pretty well for him. There's a huge chunk of members who are to the right of MacKay but aren't voting for factional socon candidates.

He has a clear (if uphill) path to victory this time at least.

Does he really, though? I mean, I'm not saying that nobody should run against MacKay, but I just don't understand why O'Toole would when his entire 2017 leadership campaign basically relied on trying to get most of the PC & Atlantic vote, which MacKay has entirely wrapped up this time.

Sure. He didn't have one when he started (because of the issues you noted), but given the makeup of the field, one has opened up for him:

1) Blunt MacKay's crossover appeal
2) Go after voters who are too right wing for MacKay but not overtly factional
3) Get preferences from socons on the later ballots

[DC Al Fine]

MacKay is already shuffling his team and his organization is er, rather disorganized ATM. But he's still heavily favoured.

Makes sense. Early messaging has been a mess.