August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Poirot]

This is starting to be no contest. Did Poilievre figure it would be hard to win, maybe after losing social conservative support he would have needed to make it possible ? Strange to drop out 3 days before his official launch.

[Poirot]

Pierre Paul-Hus and Luc Berthold endorse MacKay, and Poilievre will announce on Sunday.

Paul-Hus says MacKay's French is adequate to lead the party, that it's better than people expect.

I've heard many comments in the last weeks that his French was not very good. Maybe it was from people of other camps. I think many Quebec conservatives were hoping for someone perfectly bilingual.

[Poirot]

I thought this leadership race was not really a race but maybe there is a race.

A Conservative source told La Presse Mackay is in the lead but O'Toole has some momentum.
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/202005/10/01-5273029-le-vent-est-il-en-train-de-tourner-chez-les-conservateurs.php

Jason Kenney's support for O'Toole gace some life to Anybody but Mackay. In Quebec in the last weeks, Carl Vallée who worked with Harper endorsed O'Toole. He was followed by Chicoutimi MP Richard Martel and former Cabinet Minister Christian Paradis.

Former MP Alupa Clarke is presiding O'Toole's Quebec campaign. Vincent Guzzo who was interested in running for leader supports O'Toole and also Senator Leo Housakos who is a good organizer.

Fundraisings numbers by March 31 show Mackay raising more money but O'Toole has more donors.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-fundraising-1.5554978?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

[Poirot]

Mainstreet poll of 6624 party members.

Peter MacKay 40%
Erin O'Toole 34%
Leslyn Lewis 9%
Derek Sloan 5%

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/12/mackay-leads-cpc-leadership-race-but-otoole-popular-as-second-choice-of-lewis-sloan-backers-mainstreet-poll/

O'Toole has more second choice support. MacKay has a big lead in Atlantic provinces, other regions are close.

[Poirot]

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

[Poirot]

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

The second choice result is on the last page of the document. I think I have to read it by column so that would make Sloan's second choice: 57% Lewis, 17.9 O'Toole, 10.7% Mackay, 19.7% undecided and 3.7% no second choice.

Lewis voters give second choice: 38.2% O'Toole, 33.2% Sloane, 13.8% Mackay, 12% undecided, 2.7% no second choice

[Poirot]

Two debates will be held in Toronto. June 17 in French and June 18 in English.

There is an article in The Hill Times on the possibility of a Fall election, it would be a good moment for the Liberals to win a majority. Pollster Nik Nanos "expects that once the money stops going into the system in the new year, and the government starts to introduce measures to cut programs and services, or to raise taxes, the government’s popularity will plummet."

"the Liberals have a legitimate rationale to call an election in the fall, considering the enormity of the crisis, and they can reasonably argue they need a fresh mandate."

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/06/01/a-fall-federal-election-is-a-real-possibility-say-pollsters/250478

[Poirot]

Mario Dumont had an interview with O'Toole on his tv show. Mackay was also invited but he declined. Turning down a rare opportunity to be seen by the public could be playing it safe because not being confident enough in his French. It could hurt him if there is a looking bad moment.

Mackay has the support of 5 Quebec MPs, O'Toole has 1.

I've not seem much media coverage of the race. One time four women Mackay supporters accused O'Toole of not having a clear position on abortion. I read a news story on the policies for Quebec in the O'Toole platform.

[Poirot]

Someone leaked a video of O'Toole courting social conservatives.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-otoole-social-conservative-leadership-1.5613399

It used to be other parties that did this to the Conservatives, link someone with conservative social views or groups to scare but now the party is doing it internally.

[Poirot]

A sixth Quebec MP for Mackay and 38 defeated candidates in the province also support him.

The MP criticised O'Toole's strategy of courting social conservatives in making his decision public and he's been a progressive conservative so Mackay.

Quebec Conservatives mostly seem scared of seeing social issues come up in the next election and be on the defensive.

By attacking O'Toole with wooing social conservative, it pushes him to have to explain he is not very social conservatives and disappoints those conservative voters and cuts part of the transfer of votes O'Toole would need to win.

A linguist rated the candidate's French language out of 10. Lewis 1/10, Sloan 2/10, Mackay 5/10, O'Toole 6/10.

[Poirot]

Mackay's French is a downgrade from previous leaders so not ideal for those wishing a perfectly fluent bilingual leader. His wife still needs to make him practice.

Would you mind contextualizing that scale? E.g. How would Maxime Bernier's English rank on that scale?

I don't know how good his English is so couldn't compare, if he has only pronunciation problems or his sentence make it hard to understand his ideas.

I found Mackay's score card for a 5 to compare: Communicates rather effectively even with his accent and pronunciation difficulties.  Erroers in syntax and vocabulary sometimes make it hard to understand his ideas.

The 6 for O'Toole was speak with an accent but his speech is fluid. He makes mistakes but generally his French is easy to understand. He can easily answer questions without looking at his notes.

It's subjective. For a 6 there was no big negative comments. Maybe it would give French language speakers 8 or 9 so for second language 6 or 7 is good considering pronunciation and inevitable mistakes sometimes.

[Poirot]

O'Toole's team is accusing Mackay's team of stealing internal data and videos.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/otoole-campaign-asks-police-to-investigate-mackays-campaign-for-allegedly-hacking-internal-data-videos

In its response Mackay's side is saying O'Toole should look at its volunteers.

O'Toole probably searched how the leaked video was given to media. So was there hacking, is there a mole on O'Toole's team ? Being Poirot I like investigations...

[Poirot]

O'Toole's team is accusing Mackay's team of stealing internal data and videos.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/otoole-campaign-asks-police-to-investigate-mackays-campaign-for-allegedly-hacking-internal-data-videos

In its response Mackay's side is saying O'Toole should look at its volunteers.

O'Toole probably searched how the leaked video was given to media. So was there hacking, is there a mole on O'Toole's team ? Being Poirot I like investigations...

Whatever the source, I think it's fair to call this a sign that Mackay's team is besting O'Toole's, and O'Toole knows it.

A Calgary MP supporting O'Toole fires summer student. That student allegedly took the MP's login for Zoom, downloaded information, shared with the Mackay team, shared the login and password and met with a Mackay Alberta organizer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/greg-mclean-calgary-student-erin-otoole-peter-mackay-rcmp-theft-1.5623817

[Poirot]

There are some Conservative leadership questions in the last Leger weekly pandemic survey.

Who would make the best leader ? 70% don't know or refuse to answer. 18% Mackay, 5% O'Toole, 4% Lewis, 2% Sloan.
Among the Conservative voters in the poll, it's 47% don't know, 30% Mackay, 10% O'Toole, 8% Lewis, 5% Sloan.

Voting intentions in the poll are 39% Liberal, 28% Conservative, 19% New Democrat
with Mackay as leader it's 38-28-18
with O'Toole as leader it's 39-25-19
with Lewis as leader 40-23-20
with Sloan as leader 41-21-20

It asked if people would be more or less likely to consider voting Conservative if the leader adopted three policy positions:

A comprehensive plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to support climate change strategy would make 32% more likely and 11% less likely to consider voting

A plan to improve relations with Indigenous Peoples and further the efforts of Reconciliation and land claims would make 26% more likely and 13% less likely

A clear commitment not re-open the abortion issue or allow one if its MPs to introduce legislation to re-open the abortion issue would make 23% more likey and 13% less likely

I have often heard the party needs to put social issues behind to be more appealing but it looks like there is more potential by having a strong environmental policy but it doesn't look like it will happen.

[Poirot]

The current situation might shift discourse towards economics and public finances. That could be good for Conservatives but the Liberals could sell a plan for the economy and the environment, the two are linked.

Mackay was on a regional tour. In a Sherbrooke newspaper he was asked about enviromnental issues. He siad environment is very important for his party. The biggest contribution the country can make is deliver natyral gas to world markets. influence countries that use coal to use cleaner natural gas. I don't think that will convince voters who have environement has a top issue.

O'Toole had something like carbon pricing for industrial emitters and opponent seems to attack him of wanting to impose a carbon tax.

[Poirot]

The Conservative party has 269,469 members eligible to vote. That is about 10,000 more than in 2017.

I don't know if they have released specific numbers but they say the largest growth was in Nova Scotia, Quebec Newfoundland Labrador and Alberta. Alberta was already big so with one of the biggest growth must be huge now.

Biggest riding membership: Battle River–Crowfoot, Calgary Centre, Foothills, Cypress Hills–Grasslands,  Banff–Airdrie, Oxford, Calgary Signal Hill, Edmonton–Wetaskiwin, Lethbridge, Parry Sound–Muskoka, Red Deer–Mountain View, Langley–Aldergrove.
8 from Alberta, 2 Ontario, 1 Saskatchewan, 1 BC

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

[Poirot]

The Conservative party has 269,469 members eligible to vote. That is about 10,000 more than in 2017.

I don't know if they have released specific numbers but they say the largest growth was in Nova Scotia, Quebec Newfoundland Labrador and Alberta. Alberta was already big so with one of the biggest growth must be huge now.

Biggest riding membership: Battle River–Crowfoot, Calgary Centre, Foothills, Cypress Hills–Grasslands,  Banff–Airdrie, Oxford, Calgary Signal Hill, Edmonton–Wetaskiwin, Lethbridge, Parry Sound–Muskoka, Red Deer–Mountain View, Langley–Aldergrove.
8 from Alberta, 2 Ontario, 1 Saskatchewan, 1 BC

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

That Quebec list screams Italian.

Three Liberal ridings. Someone has been selling membership within ethnic communities I guess.

I was thinking Greek factor. Senator Housakos is said to be a good organizer. He supports O'Toole. He is from Laval and ran for Canadian Alliance in Laval West. There is a greek community in Parc Extension in Papineau. My Greek theory doesn't explain Saint-Leonard.

[Poirot]

Yes, a lot of this stuff is better explained by who's been putting in legwork where and who has the support of some local fixer than anything ideological.

With that in mind, a Chinese friend of mine says she's seeing a lot of Sloan ads in Chinese-language media. I guess his people are trying to repeat the Brad Trost strategy.

Trost won Brossard riding so maybe Sloan will do well with Chinese language strategy.
I found an onternet page with some vote totals from last leadership. It had Papineau and Saint-Léonard with around 50 votes each, so easier to show big percentage gain in new members.

[Poirot]

I wonder after Lewis's loss in the leadership race, I wonder if the Conservatives are going to get her to run somewhere?

I think yes. Don't know if there is a winnable riding where she is but she is doing well. There is an opinion piece, the author thinks she will finish second with Sloan's vote.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-leslyn-lewis-leadership-bid-kory-teneycke-1.5665584

Lewis can't attend a debate event due to medical reason. Mackay decides he will not attend. He didn't participate in a BC debate and another in Toronto I think. 

[Poirot]

The Mainstreet poll has Mackay winning 51-49 on the third ballot but it is on points. In raw votes it's O'Toole leading 53%-47% on the third. Probably too much voter concentration in Alberta for O'Toole. There could be a reaction if points winner is not the same as raw vote winner, some tried to change the voting method but MacKay among others opposed it.

Maybe there is not enough lower ranked choice for O'toole to overtake Mackay. 54% said they had no third choice.

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/08/19/mackay-ahead-of-otoole-by-a-hair-in-tory-leadership-race-poll/

[Poirot]

I imagine exit poll means contacting people after they sent in their vote or a poll in the last week.

If they say the poll is done for a campaign would that boost that candidate. People could be more likely to say yes I support you than maybe tell the truth.

[Poirot]

Scheer has announced he will be running for re-election. His seaf is pretty safe, so he should have the job as long as he wants it. I suppose we'll see him in a future cabinet which has got to be the first for a former leader since... Joe Clark?

Outside of Conservative politics, Stéphane Dion was in cabinet before Trudeau decided to get rid of him.