August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumour is Ambrose won't run. But if she did, she'd be the clear front runner right now. Our poll will be out today.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's our report: https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2019/12/little-cheer-for-scheer-as-conservatives-ponder-the-next-leader/

Among Tories:
Ambrose: 28
MacKay: 15
Harper: 12
Rempel: 8
Mulroney: 5

[Hatman 🍁]

I can think of a lot of puns if John Tory becomes Leader. (He was included in a poll)

I wonder if he would end up as much of a hilarious failure as he was in Ontario Not that he would ever get elected - Tory by name, (almost) Liberal by nature.

He fits in well with the right wing Liberal crowd. Very little difference between him and Ottawa's mayor, Jim Watson, despite having sat on different sides of the aisle in Queen's Park.

[Hatman 🍁]

As with so many things, we like to be a mix of the UK and the US. In this case Parliamentary democracy and the long length of leadership campaigns. Watching how long presidential primaries are in the US, we don't really see our leadership elections as being excessively long in contrast.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is actually an interesting discussion

I'm not mad keen on the recent trend for party leaders in the UK quitting almost instantly after a bad result

This happens all the time in Canada too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps I'm too geography obsessed, but to win, the Tories have to get the 905 back (and similar suburban voters across the country). These are the people they need to exclusively cater too. Best to ignore social issues altogether, and focus on pocket book measures.  Lower taxes on the middle class, and don't threaten to cut any programs (at least nothing major).

[Hatman 🍁]

So Gladu is going to be the token female candidate? lol...

With Ambrose out, the Tories can say goodbye to winning the next election. Especially if they elect Poilievre (sorry RB).

[Hatman 🍁]

If MacKay won the leadership, would a safe seat MP in the west or Ontario resign to allow him to take a seat in Parliament, or would he wait until the next election to contest a seat in Nova Scotia?

Someone will resign in a safe seat. The question is, who?

[Hatman 🍁]

What's with all of these no names lining up to run? They can't possibly afford the $500,000 to get in.

Anyway, a question about socons (to DC especially): say the Tories nominate a moderate with some disdain for the movement. What happens in the next election to their votes? Do they stay home? I can't imagine the Cons would lose ridings like Niagara West or Abbotsford if they do. And then there are the Socon immigrant communities who are in swing ridings. Maybe them staying home would hurt. But would they?

[Hatman 🍁]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

Running on a far right platform is a terrible way to win a majority. Maybe 30-35% of the country thinks that way, but that won't win them anything. They need suburbanites (and the minorities that live in them) to win. We are not Australia. We have lots of racists sure, but not enough of them for the Conservative to appease to them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

Running on a far right platform is a terrible way to win a majority. Maybe 30-35% of the country thinks that way, but that won't win them anything. They need suburbanites (and the minorities that live in them) to win. We are not Australia. We have lots of racists sure, but not enough of them for the Conservative to appease to them.

The liberal party here got swings to the liberal party in lower-middle class/working class suburban areas and especially amongst minority voting groups, alongside massive swings amongst your small-town working class people, especially those that worked in mining industry.. 

I'm not saying run on a far-right platform, but a right-populist message that talks about about reducing immigration, stoping refugees and "excessive" climate action, that message could win.

Analogous to Ford Nation in Ontario, in fact (and to a certain extent, the federal Jason Kenney ethnoburban-outreach approach)

Ford won due to "special circumstances". Anyone would've won that election. The only thing that could've stopped him would've been a competent NDP campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

Lots of minority ridings or ridings with low Conservative numbers to begin with (except Cumberland-Colchester, weird).

Good news for Lewis?

[Hatman 🍁]

The Mainstreet poll has Mackay winning 51-49 on the third ballot but it is on points. In raw votes it's O'Toole leading 53%-47% on the third. Probably too much voter concentration in Alberta for O'Toole. There could be a reaction if points winner is not the same as raw vote winner, some tried to change the voting method but MacKay among others opposed it.

Maybe there is not enough lower ranked choice for O'toole to overtake Mackay. 54% said they had no third choice.

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/08/19/mackay-ahead-of-otoole-by-a-hair-in-tory-leadership-race-poll/

Didn't Bernier get slightly more votes than Scheer? Or am I misremembering that?

You may be remembering how Doug Ford beat Christine Elliot due to points, despite losing the popular vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

for those who say Erin can't beat trudeau, i can respect and understand that point of view. However to say this is a bad result for the tories is wrong. Peter mckay is the jeb bush of Canada. He has always been an electoral loser outside of his home riding.

Erin is an airforce veteran, a lawyer, ran a foundation to help our troops and is a proven winner in the all important GTA! This is a great man and I am proud to support Erin. Congrats to Erin on winning. Peter mckay winning would cause defections to PPC and ensure a loss. I'm glad that the party is back. Erin has a monumental task against him from the state run media, and the same forces against trump. Lets go Erin!

His seat is "barely" GTA and very white and small-town Ontario culturally.

I'd call it exurban. But, yeah, not representative of the rest of the GTA.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final round map

Results by riding are up:

https://www.conservative.ca/leadership/

Scroll to the bottom and click "see the full report" (pdf warning)

It's interesting how some well-meaning but ill-informed progressives projected "hope" on Leslyn Lewis due to the face value of her race, educational background and articulation--yet her strongest nodes tended to have a Bible Belt tinge like Niagara West, or much of rural Western Canada.  (And the sheer numbers of so-disposed card-carrying voters might explain why she was first on the second ballot in terms of votes-not-points--it's a little like Scheer's being ahead of Trudeau in 2019 votes thanks to his plumped gigamajorities in the West.)

Another observation: MacKay seems to have done particularly well in ridings with a significant South Asian base (in Brampton and Surrey most notably, and also discernable in places like NE Calgary)

The ethnic vote is always interesting in Conservative leadership elections, considering unlike most right wing parties in the world, they actually do well with minorities. Interesting to see that Chinese Canadians didn't go strongly one way or the other; it seems it went for O'Toole with the same margins as White Canadians.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final round map

Results by riding are up:

https://www.conservative.ca/leadership/

Scroll to the bottom and click "see the full report" (pdf warning)

It's interesting how some well-meaning but ill-informed progressives projected "hope" on Leslyn Lewis due to the face value of her race, educational background and articulation--yet her strongest nodes tended to have a Bible Belt tinge like Niagara West, or much of rural Western Canada.  (And the sheer numbers of so-disposed card-carrying voters might explain why she was first on the second ballot in terms of votes-not-points--it's a little like Scheer's being ahead of Trudeau in 2019 votes thanks to his plumped gigamajorities in the West.)

Another observation: MacKay seems to have done particularly well in ridings with a significant South Asian base (in Brampton and Surrey most notably, and also discernable in places like NE Calgary)

The ethnic vote is always interesting in Conservative leadership elections, considering unlike most right wing parties in the world, they actually do well with minorities. Interesting to see that Chinese Canadians didn't go strongly one way or the other; it seems it went for O'Toole with the same margins as White Canadians.

Great map. Are you going to do a first round map as well?

I made a quick one last night on Twitter, but there were a few errors. I made this one for Wikipedia, but there's an editor who's arguing with me because they arbitrarily chose brown and purple for O'Toole and MacKay, and I am not using those colours.

[Hatman 🍁]

The ethnic vote is always interesting in Conservative leadership elections, considering unlike most right wing parties in the world, they actually do well with minorities. Interesting to see that Chinese Canadians didn't go strongly one way or the other; it seems it went for O'Toole with the same margins as White Canadians.

But again: it's more distinct with Indo-Canadians--notice the deep shades of MacKay red in Brampton and in Surrey.

Yeah, I know. My point was the Chinese vote wasn't as distinct as the Indo-Canadian vote.  Did no one bother to do any outreach with them? Last time they backed SoCon candidates, this time, not as much.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's the first round:



What do Rainy River, Kitchener Centre and Bourassa have in common? Beats me!

[Hatman 🍁]

Why did Sloan overperform?

Compared to what, polling? Lewis overperformed too. Social conservatives are less likely to answer polls. In 2017, the issue was that many social conservatives were from minority communities, and so there was language and cultural barriers to polling them. However, this time the results don't show minorities backing Sloan or Lewis to the extent they did Trost and Lemieux in 2017. Based on the maps, it looks like Chinese Canadians backed O'Toole to a moderate degree, and Indo-Canadians gave MacKay some large margins. So, I'm not sure what the issue is this time. Maybe even White social conservatives don't answer polls?

[Hatman 🍁]

Can’t say that I expected my new home riding (Kitchener-Conestoga) to have a higher % religious right than my old riding (Oxford) at all.

Probably has to do with a large Amish population. I don't think they vote in Conservative leadership elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why did Sloan overperform?

Compared to what, polling? Lewis overperformed too. Social conservatives are less likely to answer polls. In 2017, the issue was that many social conservatives were from minority communities, and so there was language and cultural barriers to polling them. However, this time the results don't show minorities backing Sloan or Lewis to the extent they did Trost and Lemieux in 2017. Based on the maps, it looks like Chinese Canadians backed O'Toole to a moderate degree, and Indo-Canadians gave MacKay some large margins. So, I'm not sure what the issue is this time. Maybe even White social conservatives don't answer polls?

Some hypotheses:

1) Pollsters are letting a significant amount of non-members into their samples, which degrades their polls into name recognition polls. Socon candidates are mostly low profile (except Jason Kenney I guess) and therefore underpoll.

2) Some conservative Christian groups, while participating in politics, are pretty insular in general (e.g. Dutch Reformed, Mennonite). People like that would vote in leadership races but not answer polls.

3) Conservative Chrisians in general are feeling pretty embattled, Canadian ones in particular, and are therefore answering polls in a more 'socially acceptable' manner.

Thoughts?

Maybe. You'd know better than me. I do know that Mainstreet attempted to weight for social conservatives, so in all likelihood, Sloan and Lewis supporters were even less represented in the sample. If they weighted it to 15% (Trost+Lemieux, first round in 2017), you can see where they would have a problem. Also, trying to identify who is social conservative is another issue.

[Hatman 🍁]

Though it's hard to think of the kind of "safe riding" where she'd be a good fit.  (Oshawa?)

If O'Toole wants to parachute her into a GTA riding, the dirty Shwa' isn't the best option. The NDP regularly comes close there, and the Liberals usually aren't too far behind. Colin Carrie knows how to win Oshawa because he's done it six times now, it would be a new riding for Lewis and could cause an upset.

If we're talking safe GTA seats, why not Thornhill? It's closer to where she lives, it's a safe seat, and the incumbent Peter Kent is now 77.

I realize Peter Kent isn't Jewish, but I reckon the Tories would rather find a Jewish candidate to replace him there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Black Canadians are probably the loyalest Liberal demographic in the country.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals were a distant third among Blacks in the 2018 provincial election. They make up a big part of the Fordnation constituency, and the NDP may have done well as well among Blacks (they certainly elected a lot of Black MPPs, enough to form their own caucus!)

[Hatman 🍁]

Lewis has confirmed she is running in the next election. Seat tbd.

Perhaps Thornhill? It's a safe riding which she can be parachuted into, close to her home in Markham, & has a Tory MP in Peter Kent who's approaching his 80s.

Again, she's not Jewish. Haldimand-Norfolk is a better fit. Lots of social conservatives, and it will be an open seat. She may have to move, but a small price to pay.