August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[King of Kensington]

What about Rona Ambrose and Lisa Raitt?

[King of Kensington]

Karahilos disqualified

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/pro-life-candidates-leslyn-lewis-derek-sloan-qualify-for-final-ballot-in-tory-leadership-race

[King of Kensington]

True enough although if you look at Canada's largest province Ontario, Tories generally get in the 30s and more often than not finish behind the Liberals.  BC despite being good for the Conservatives in past seems to be drifting away with Interior still solidly for parties on right at provincial and federal level but Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island much less so than a decade ago.  That being said Quebec is more rural than Ontario and less diverse so the demographics actually in Quebec are more favourable for parties on right than they are in Ontario thus to your point.  Liberals have the benefit in Quebec in that they have the non-Franco vote locked up so gives them a much stronger starting point than the Tories there.

The Conservatives have very much become the party of the Prairies.

[King of Kensington]

Idiotic.

https://twitter.com/atRachelGilmore/status/1243289158795354117

[King of Kensington]

This is the B listers and below, like last time. 

[King of Kensington]

for those who say Erin can't beat trudeau, i can respect and understand that point of view. However to say this is a bad result for the tories is wrong. Peter mckay is the jeb bush of Canada. He has always been an electoral loser outside of his home riding.

Erin is an airforce veteran, a lawyer, ran a foundation to help our troops and is a proven winner in the all important GTA! This is a great man and I am proud to support Erin. Congrats to Erin on winning. Peter mckay winning would cause defections to PPC and ensure a loss. I'm glad that the party is back. Erin has a monumental task against him from the state run media, and the same forces against trump. Lets go Erin!

His seat is "barely" GTA and very white and small-town Ontario culturally.

[King of Kensington]

Watching the speech O'Toole seems to be a step up from Scheer who was too much of a "social conservative from the Prairies", and will likely play better in eastern Canada, delivering a more somewhat efficient vote rather than piling up huge pluralities in AB/SK.  But the country has shifted leftward and it's hard to see a Conservative path to victory at this point.  Large margins to reverse in the ridings of southern Ontario and not just the GTA.  

[King of Kensington]

Riding-level results:

https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/24003224/6a2fd06b9518d0a.pdf

[King of Kensington]

My guess is MacKay doesn't run - but who knows?

Atlantic Canada is certainly a Liberal fortress, but O'Toole's "Anglo-Eastern-ness" and appeals to Eastern cultural conservatism plays better than Saskatchewanian Scheer could play better there.  Presenting himself as a friend of the working man, defender of traditional cultural symbols such as Sir John A. Macdonald, his military background etc.

In some ways O'Toole comes across as a "Diefenbaker Tory" in 2020 form.  

[King of Kensington]

Harper was very capable of straddling the east/west divide, and O'Toole seems quite capable of this as well.

In 2008, Harper was able to get to near-majority territory winning New Brunswick, non-GTA Southern Ontario and BC.  But it's more difficult to recreate that coalition today.  The Lower Mainland of BC and Ottawa for example are voting a lot more like the GTA now. 

Quebec was always weak under Harper - but today the Liberals are much stronger there.

Furthermore, the millennial generation is a big voting bloc now and the Liberals really have strong support among the university-educated and in ethnocultural communities.

[King of Kensington]

I also see little evidence that Black Canadians - perhaps the most loyal Liberal demographic in the country - really took part or embraced Leslyn Lewis.

[King of Kensington]

Some electoral districts outside of Atlantic Canada with a high "religious right" percentage (I used "other Christian" + Baptist + Pentecostal as a proxy measure).  2011 NHS data.

Ontario

Kitchener-Conestoga  26.6%
Elgin-Middlesex-London  24.5%
Chatham-Kent-Leamington  24.4%
Niagara West  24%
Perth-Wellington  23%
Haldimand-Norfolk  22.7%
Oxford  21%

Manitoba

Portage-Lisgar  47.5%
Provencher  41.6%

Saskatchewan

Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek  25.7%
Cypress Hills-Grasslands  22.2%

Alberta

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner  30%
Lethbridge  29.4%
Peace River-Westlock  25.9%
Red Deer-Lacombe  23.3%
Red Deer-Mountain View  22.4%
Foothills  22.2%
Grande Prairie-Mackenzie  21.7%

British Columbia

Abbotsford  34.9%
Chilliwack-Hope  28.8%
Langley-Aldergrove  25%
North Okanagan-Shuswap  21.7%
Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies  21.2%
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon  20.6%

[King of Kensington]

Can’t say that I expected my new home riding (Kitchener-Conestoga) to have a higher % religious right than my old riding (Oxford) at all.

Perhaps in the case of K-C, those who fall within the statistical-category proxy are more "ancestral" than ideological and likelier to be affected by the moderating influence of suburban K-W?  (Plus, some of the deeper Mennonite sects are notorious for low turnout.)

I'd also throw out there that the census "Other Christian" category is very messy. Per my review of the detailed breakdown of what groups and their #'s, "Other Christian is mostly Evangelical sects but it also includes non-Evangelical groups like Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses, a few mainline Protestantish groups and generic "Christian" people.

It's still a perfectly fine rough metric (it's not like I expect Kensington to manually tally 20+ Evangelical groups by riding ), but the noise in the metric may account for some of the oddities like K-C.

It's admittedly an imperfect (proxy) measure - but that's the most detail I can get at the riding level.

Not all "other Christians" are the same.  Dutch Canadians in Niagara region and the Mennonites of southern Manitoba are more involved in politics than the strict Amish communities in Waterloo for example.  

This measure likely overestimates social conservatism in the Maritimes and perhaps underestimates Saskatchewan.  I suspect there's a lot of "ancestral" Baptists in the Maritimes - reflecting New England English ancestry, plus MacKay really dominates there, so I didn't bother tallying those ridings up.  In Saskatchewan, only two ridings have over 20% on this proxy measure.

[King of Kensington]

I think she would be daft to run in Etobicoke North. Yes it's Ford country, but it's also a riding that the Liberals won by over 10 points in their 2011 collapse, and by 39.2pts last year. Not to mention, Doug Ford has said he won't even campaign for the CPC in the next election, so that will hurt anyone trying to ride his coattails.

Bruce Stanton (Simcoe North) and Diane Finley (Haldimand-Norfolk) will not be running for the next election. Both are solid Conservative ridings, and interestingly Haldimand-Norfolk was one of the few seats east of Saskatchewan that voted for her on the first ballot. The only problem is she lives in Markham, which is 1.5 hours away from Simcoe North and 3 hours away from Haldimand-Norfolk. Or she could uproot her family and move to one of those areas, but it's not clear that she actually wants to do that.

I think what's most likely is that she runs somewhere in Markham or elsewhere in the York Region. Markham-Stouffville is the only winnable Markham riding with a Liberal incumbent, so she might try there. If she wants a safer option near home, she could try Richmond Hill.

She ran in Scarborough-Rouge Park in 2015 - the riding that had the highest Liberal vote share in the last federal election.

[King of Kensington]

Given that Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre seem to be secure for the Liberals, I wonder if they'll make a serious play for Thornhill? 

[King of Kensington]

Black Canadians are probably the loyalest Liberal demographic in the country.

[King of Kensington]

2018 Ontario being the exception.  It looks like the NDP did well among Black voters.  Look at YSW poll by poll for example - Weston-Mount Dennis is orange vs. the Italian neighborhoods swung heavily to Ford; heavily Black areas in Rouge Park also went NDP it seemed, but for Mitzie Hunter in Guildwood).  Of course the PCs overperformed with Ford as well.

Federally meanwhile the top performing Liberal ridings and most heavily Black ridings overlap significantly.

[King of Kensington]

Some electoral districts outside of Atlantic Canada with a high "religious right" percentage (I used "other Christian" + Baptist + Pentecostal as a proxy measure).  2011 NHS data.

Ontario

Kitchener-Conestoga  26.6%
Elgin-Middlesex-London  24.5%
Chatham-Kent-Leamington  24.4%
Niagara West  24%
Perth-Wellington  23%
Haldimand-Norfolk  22.7%
Oxford  21%

Manitoba

Portage-Lisgar  47.5%
Provencher  41.6%

Saskatchewan

Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek  25.7%
Cypress Hills-Grasslands  22.2%

Alberta

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner  30%
Lethbridge  29.4%
Peace River-Westlock  25.9%
Red Deer-Lacombe  23.3%
Red Deer-Mountain View  22.4%
Foothills  22.2%
Grande Prairie-Mackenzie  21.7%

British Columbia

Abbotsford  34.9%
Chilliwack-Hope  28.8%
Langley-Aldergrove  25%
North Okanagan-Shuswap  21.7%
Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies  21.2%
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon  20.6%

Result for social conservative candidates (votes cast and points, 1st ballot):

ONTARIO

Oxford  (1411) 70.23
Niagara West (1039)   65.92
Haldimand-Norfolk (726)  56.6
Perth-Wellington (813)  54.48
Kitchener-Conestoga (761)  51.11
Chatham-Kent-Leamington (718)  49.86
Elgin-Middlesex-London (943)  44.96

WEST

Cypress Hills-Grasslands SK (1267)  70.23
Chilliwack-Hope BC (1166)  69.12
Provencher MB (691) 68.3
Peace River-Westlock AB (1049)  65.58
Portage-Lisgar MB (692)  64.45
Lethbridge AB (1554)  63.89
Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek SK (691)  63.37
Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner AB (1314)  59.2
Grand Prairie-Mackenzie AB (1175) 58.55
Langley-Aldergove BC (1246)  58.26
Red Deer-Lacombe AB (1178)  55.43
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon BC (732)  52.86
Abbotsford BC (929)  51.23
Red Deer-Mountain View AB (1404)  49.06
Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies BC (732) 47.67
North Okanagan-Shuswap BC (1035)  46.65
Foothills AB (2079)  41.02

[King of Kensington]

I think O'Toole is definitely a step up from Scheer, and MacKay is overrated.  That being said getting to something like the Harper '08 map seems increasingly difficult given the liberal trends.

[King of Kensington]

Yes that's a good thought. Really, anywhere in the Dutch Reformed belt in southern Ontario would be a great fit for her. Those folks broke hard for her in the leadership race.

Dutch Canadians

Ontario

Niagara West  17%
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex  15%
Oxford  15%
Haldimand-Norfolk  12%
Perth-Wellington  12%
Elgin-Middlesex-London  11%
Huron-Bruce  11%

British Columbia

Chilliwack-Hope  13%
Abbotsford  11%

[King of Kensington]

The suburbs and mid-sized cities of Ontario were a key pillar in the Harper strategy.  Here are the ridings where the Tories were within 10 points of winning last year (vote share and % margin of loss). 

Richmond Hill  43.06%  -0.42
Kitchener-Conestoga  39.03%  -0.71
King-Vaughan  43.2%  -1.79
Bay of Quinte  36.8%  -2.36
Niagara Centre  31.03%  -3.98
Peterborough-Kawartha  34.89%  -4.36
Newmarket-Aurora  37.83%  -5.27
Thunder Bay-Rainy River  29.33%  -5.99
Kanata-Carleton  36.48%  -6.57
Sault Ste. Marie  32.15%  -6.9
Oakville  39.08%  -7.2
Whitby  35.55%  -8.13
Markham-Stouffville  30.6% -8.31
St. Catharines  31.57%  -8.66
Cambridge  30.05%  -9.48

[King of Kensington]

What Scheer Cabinet?

[King of Kensington]

A bit strange to be discussing the LEAST Conservative constituencies.  Taking the discussion here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=327662.0

[King of Kensington]

In a real sense, the Conservative Party was the Harper Party; his goals were the party’s goals, his ideology was the party’s ideology, his vision was the party’s vision. And woe be to anybody who challenged his authority. This is why, after Harper left politics, the Conservatives lost their guiding and unifying force; Harperless, the Conservative Party is just a collection of right-wing factions and tribes who uncomfortably co-inhabit the same political club. So inevitably, the post-Harper Conservatives faced a personality crisis. What were they? What did they stand for? Where were they going?

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/08/26/erin-otooles-ghost-problem/261510

[King of Kensington]

The emergence of the millennial generation, the dominance of the Liberals among educated, metropolitan and ethnic minority voters, and the pandemic are all making the Conservative path to victory more and more difficult.