August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[mileslunn]

Of possibilities so far here are my thoughts:

Ambrose: If she runs, very good chance she wins it as she is from Alberta so can appeal to Western base, yet moderate enough to appeal to more moderate side especially in Eastern half of the country.  Also reasonably well liked so on paper at least looks good in a national election, but obviously one must be cautious here as both Jim Prentice and John Tory (for Ontario PCs in 2007) looked good on paper but didn't perform so well.  But all signs now suggests she doesn't want it.

Charest: Long odds he actually wins it as Western base and those from Reform wing cannot stand him especially with his stances on climate change and gun control.  That being said its every riding gets equal weight so in Quebec where membership is small and Atlantic Canada where most come from PC side (that is assuming MacKay doesn't run) he could do surprisingly well but unlikely to win leadership, still could play key role in ensuring a more moderate vs. right wing candidate wins as his second choices will probably flow that way.  Could help the party in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, but probably helps PPC in Prairies where he is seen as too much of a Red Tory, nonetheless, Tories can lose a lot of votes there without losing many seats so might not help the party a lot in a general election vote wise, but would seat wise as shifts would be in all the right places.

MacKay: Comes from the former PC wing, originally from Atlantic Canada and lives in Ontario so should do well in Eastern half of the country.  Unlike Charest I don't think Reform wing and Western base minds him as much, still not likely their first choice but if final ballot MacKay vs. Polievere, most Charest's supporters would likely flow to MacKay and same if MacKay vs. Charest, most Polievere would go to him.  Being moderate and from Atlantic Canada as well as charismatic helps, but I think is a bit overrated and underperformed as cabinet minister.  But still has more potential to widen tent than narrow it.

O'Toole: Not a household name, but did alright last time.  His main challenge is not falling off the ballot early on as probably won't be high on people's first choices, but is respected by all wings so will get a lot of second choices and could emerge as a consensus candidate as someone like Charest or Polievere is bound to anger one side of party.  As a sort of bland non-offensive, how well he does in general election will depend on how popular Trudeau is.  If Trudeau's approval rebounds, he is not the type who can excite people thus probably won't do too well, but as someone who is seen as non-risky if Trudeau's approval ratings fall further, I could see him doing well as being seen as a safe choice.  A lot like Brian Pallister in Manitoba who is not overly well liked, but not scary either and when people were ready to punt the NDP, he didn't scare them away.

Polievere:  Very popular with base and being born in Alberta but living in Ontario helps him build a base in both West and Ontario.  Also shares the hatred and anger much of the membership does of Trudeau.  So while I think he has a great chance of becoming next leader, his chances in a general election are much weaker.  Too much of a pit bull so likely to fire up the base, but I am skeptical about his ability to appeal to swing voters.  Still, as we saw with Doug Ford, if people are mad enough just about anyone can win, but I don't see Trudeau's approval ratings falling to Wynne levels which is what would be needed for him to win.

As for dark horses

Detell and Chong are others who might enter.  Detell especially if Charest doesn't run might stand a better chance and being from CAQ instead of PLQ his conservative credentials are stronger so less issue with Western base while can make a strong case he can bring the same coalition that helped elect Francois Legault provincially into the federal Tories.  Chong looks better after the bad results, but I still don't think party has come around to supporting a carbon tax even if majority of Canadians have.  Otherwise Chong is a great candidate to appeal to swing voters, but not popular amongst base who play a big role in choosing leader.

[mileslunn]

Fortier is out.

Had no real chance, not a household name except for political junkies, still should maybe run as more strong candidates they can get in Quebec the better.  And also unlike Scheer, should give them a more prominent role as most of them understand province better.

[mileslunn]

So Gladu is going to be the token female candidate? lol...

With Ambrose out, the Tories can say goodbye to winning the next election. Especially if they elect Poilievre (sorry RB).

Other two leaders male so while a female leader an asset not a requirement.  I do agree though Poilievre if chosen would hand the next election to Trudeau on a silver platter.  MacKay and O'Toole I think could win but far from certain and a lot would depend on campaign, events, and platform.  Charest won't become leader so pointless discussing how well he would do in GE.

[mileslunn]

Its interesting that in the last CPC leadership contest there were several social conservatives in the mix such as Scheer, Trost and Lemieux (at the time Bernier was supposedly more of a libertarian but he has since revealed himself to be a social conservative too). So far in this year's contest its not clear if there will be ANYONE who is an unabashed SoCon even running.

There might be but some unknown name.  I think after loss, its pretty social conservatism is a vote loser and most people committed to the party want to win not just be leader to promote a certain agenda, they also want to implement it too.

[mileslunn]

Rona Ambrose is out so definitely a huge blow, but also helps increase MacKay's odds of becoming next leader quite a bit.

[mileslunn]

What's with all of these no names lining up to run? They can't possibly afford the $500,000 to get in.

Anyway, a question about socons (to DC especially): say the Tories nominate a moderate with some disdain for the movement. What happens in the next election to their votes? Do they stay home? I can't imagine the Cons would lose ridings like Niagara West or Abbotsford if they do. And then there are the Socon immigrant communities who are in swing ridings. Maybe them staying home would hurt. But would they?

Its just whether one is a SoCon or not, its whether it is a top issue.  I suspect the number of Canadians who have abortion or gay marriage as one of their top 3 priorities is under 2%so little downside if they leave.  For immigrant communities, I've found they rarely tend to vote on this.  I think most understand Canada is more socially liberal than the country they are from so has little impact on how they vote.  Many Muslims are quite socially conservative yet overwhelming majority vote Liberal or NDP with Tory support amongst Muslim community being in single digits.

Where it maybe had an impact was back when gay marriage was legalized as many Liberal MPs from heavily ethnic ridings in GTA voted against.  For example in Scarborough, all six Liberal MPs in 2005 voted against it.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, if the Conservative strategy is to wait until Justin Trudeau gets to be as unpopular as Kathleen Wynne was in 2018 - they will be in opposition forever

It will happen eventually but maybe not until 2030.  Party will face a tough slog to win no matter who they choose, but with right leader they might have a shot, but wrong one risk going backwards.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, if the Conservative strategy is to wait until Justin Trudeau gets to be as unpopular as Kathleen Wynne was in 2018 - they will be in opposition forever

I think that Trudeau Jr. could be in power for as long as his dad was. Pierre Trudeau served from 1968 to 1984, and the provincial Liberals were in charge for 15 years. Justin Trudeau could still be in charge in the 2030's. Liberal governments in Canada last a very long time.

Historically yes, however today things move faster and also Liberal domination in past was due to dominating Quebec which they no longer have a lock on although Ontario and Atlantic Canada which used to be bellwethers now have a Liberal tilt.  At same time Western Canada which has outside a few pockets never been friendly to Liberals has grown.  So I think Liberal government lasting until 2030 while possible is unlikely.  I think question is do they make 2025 or not and that will depend on how they govern and also whom Tories chose.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/MichaelChongMP/status/1222603732766072834

With MacKay the frontrunner and being from the PC wing, that side is already taken and really the party being more Reform dominated can only take one from that side.  Also party is still against carbon tax and probably has to lose another election or two over that before they change at which point Chong would have a better chance. 

[mileslunn]

There are also all kinds of rumours and allegations that Baird sexually assaulted young men in his office and in his foreign travels. If he were to run all of that would come out...

They are already out on twitter and pretty sure if not media, one of his opponents would raise it.

[mileslunn]

I was wondering having read a lot on whether Conservatives can win or not, do people here agree with idea Conservatives are not electable and cannot win next election or do they think they can.

I think naturally Canada is more liberal than conservative thus putting Conservatives at a disadvantage but I think with right leader, right policies, and if Trudeau screws up a win is possible but won't be easy.  All else equal, I think more of Canada leans Liberal than Conservative and on balance more Canadians lean left than lean right although most are close to the centre.

[mileslunn]

I was wondering having read a lot on whether Conservatives can win or not, do people here agree with idea Conservatives are not electable and cannot win next election or do they think they can.

I think naturally Canada is more liberal than conservative thus putting Conservatives at a disadvantage but I think with right leader, right policies, and if Trudeau screws up a win is possible but won't be easy.  All else equal, I think more of Canada leans Liberal than Conservative and on balance more Canadians lean left than lean right although most are close to the centre.

Talking about how a party "can't" in a country like Canada is silly. In the last ten years alone we have 2011, 2015, Alberta 2015, Quebec 2018. Going back further we have 1993, BC 1991 and on and on.

Even ignoring the big wave elections, it's not all that hard to imgaine a Tory win. The economy might not be as strong next time, the government might bungle a file etc etc. The poll movements required for a Tory win just aren't that big; absorb the PPC, and some pretty small movements from Lib to Tory/NDP/Green would do it.

I think the talk about Canada being 'left' is more a symptom of an underlying issue for the Canadian right; that popular right wing politics in Quebec vs ROC is often contradictory and difficult to synthesize. Due to this issue and the post-colonial mindset in much of Quebec, a lot of people who vote CAQ provincially or who would for the right if Quebec were an independent state, vote for the left federally. Deprived of these voters (with some notable exceptions), the Tories are stuck trying to win voters that aren't very sympathetic to them in order to win power. Those suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver that the Tories need to win to win a majority government definitely fit your analysis.

Or put another way. Imagine an alternate universe where Quebec was settled by Anglophones, and was roughly analogous to Ontario. Montreal is Toronto 2.0, rural Quebec is like rural southern Ontario, Lac St Jean is like Sudbury or Thunder Bay etc. Maybe the PM is Justin Turnbull and Mark Burns quit to set up his own party. I don't know if Scheer wins that election, but the Tories and NDP would certainly do a heck of a lot better than they did IRL purely on demographics.

True enough although if you look at Canada's largest province Ontario, Tories generally get in the 30s and more often than not finish behind the Liberals.  BC despite being good for the Conservatives in past seems to be drifting away with Interior still solidly for parties on right at provincial and federal level but Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island much less so than a decade ago.  That being said Quebec is more rural than Ontario and less diverse so the demographics actually in Quebec are more favourable for parties on right than they are in Ontario thus to your point.  Liberals have the benefit in Quebec in that they have the non-Franco vote locked up so gives them a much stronger starting point than the Tories there.

[mileslunn]

It seems Tories have a big problem in that what base wants is not what Canadian public wants so appeal to swing voters and lose leadership race or pander to base and win leadership but lose next election.  Their response to Liberal assault weapons ban perfect example of that.  Almost 80% of Canadians support it but Conservative membership does not thus putting them into a trap.  Regardless of what one thinks of the bill or timing, Liberals baited Tories on this and they took the bait.

[mileslunn]

How do you think either two would perform in general election.

My view is neither can beat Trudeau, although I don't think Tories no matter who leader is can beat Liberals.  I think pandemic has pulled public enough to left that Tories will be unelectable for forseeable future so its more who can stop the party from becoming an Alberta/Saskatchewan rump so when time comes, which I think is at least a decade away, they can win.

MacKay is more centrist so should be a better choice, but weaker French thus harms his chances in Quebec than O'Toole.  And has a much weaker campaign team.  What are others thoughts?  Should party even try to win or should it be more staying relevant until political scene changes.

[mileslunn]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

[mileslunn]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

That doesn't mean he won't or can't hold a snap election before 2023. It's totally possible that in=f the summer of 2021 the virus has receded and he's perceived to have handled the crisis really well, he'll call another election and get a decent majority.

I wouldn't worry about 2017 UK parallels mostly because Trudeau, for his faults, is still a better politician that Theresa May, and the Libs are a little more in tune with what Canadian voters wants compared to Tories with British voters

Agreed he will wait until it has receded so sometime next year.  As for more in tune, generally true, but he is prone to stupid mistakes that is why he lost his majority so while in good shape now that could change.  Also large deficit could be a problem too.  That being said I am not personally a Trudeau fan, but agree here he will probably try before the hard decisions have to be made but also wait until there is no risk of another wave.

[mileslunn]

Erin O'Toole released a detailed platform https://erinotoole.ca/platform//.  No real controversial policies and mostly standard fare for Tories.  Not the strong moderation although a few sections show some, but no sign of shifting hard to right either.  His main problem is less policies but more tone like Take Back Canada.  I think that sounds too much like Make America Great Again and while fires up base, is a terrible slogan to use in a general election.  If he wins, he should keep his platform and perhaps make adjustments as things change (we live in a quickly changing world with COVID-19) but have a more positive idea.  In 2001 when BC Liberals had a detailed platform, it was Called New Era for BC so sort of a positive sounding one or same with Obama who despite US being in bad shape when he took office, he had a forward looking positive vision.

[mileslunn]

While little polling here are my thoughts on how things will go:

Sloan: He will fall off after first ballot, but wouldn't be surprised if he gets into double digits or does better than expected.  He is a lot like Brad Trost and Tanya Allen Granic.  Both seen as extreme but had a loyal following.  Social conservatives may be a big anchor on the party in terms of electability, but one should not underestimate how strong there.  Once he falls off, most of his support will go to Lewis and some to O'Toole so better he does better for those two.

Lewis: She has gained a lot of momentum and she is a social conservative but sort of seen as more acceptable to broader public so some talk she may come in second ahead of O'Toole.  I suspect most of her second choices if she comes in third to go to O'Toole while if she finishes ahead of O'Toole, she might actually become next leader of Tories.  Not likely but not impossible either.

O'Toole:  He needs to accomplish two things to win.  Remain ahead of Lewis and keep MacKay under 45% on first ballot.  He has far more room for growth than MacKay on subsequent ballots as he is more acceptable to the base than MacKay is.  Yes that is problematic in a general election, but in leadership race, base not swing voters decide results.

MacKay: He is acting confident so I am guessing he likes numbers.  Also since each riding is weighted equally that may work in MacKay's favour as he should do well in areas where Tory membership is low, i.e. more progressive ridings where people understand party needs to moderate to win.  Will do poorly in Prairies but since each riding weighted equally, Quebec and Ontario each on their own carry more weight.  Should win big in Atlantic Canada, Quebec is a wildcard, likely first in Ontario, tight in BC while in Prairies only in Manitoba could I see him coming first.  I think Saskatchewan will go for Lewis or O'Toole while Alberta for O'Toole.  Ideally his goal should be to win on first ballot, but if not at least get over 47% as he won't get a lot of second choices.

In many ways MacKay is for those who believe party needs to moderate to win, while O'Toole/Lewis are for those who believe party needs to remain on right and change message and tactics, not where it sits on political spectrum.  Sloan is your Trump wannabe.

[mileslunn]

What are people's thoughts on the Tories' choice?  And do you think O'Toole could actually beat Trudeau or have the Tories just handed Trudeau another win?

My view is MacKay was probably the better choice, but O'Toole not a bad one either.  He lacks charisma but that seems to be less of an issue with their voter pool than it is for Liberals.  He also is more moderate than Scheer or Harper which is a plus.  At same time him running a fairly right wing campaign despite being moderate does give Liberals room to attack.  And more importantly shows a long term problem that membership is well to right of general public meaning if he doesn't win, real risk next leader will be further right and party will remain in opposition until Liberals reach Wynne like approval ratings.

If an election were called today, I don't think O'Toole would stand a chance against Trudeau simply due to Trudeau handling pandemic reasonably well and people fearful Tories would be less generous with help.  But he is moderate and capable enough that if government somehow manages to survive to 2022 or later he might have a chance.

I think Lewis especially if she can improve her French has potential long term.  For MacKay, I think his chances of ever being leader are over.  Unfortunately the base will never accept someone with PC roots showing merger is really more an Alliance takeover than one of equals.  Although with many countries seeing greater polarization, perhaps this was inevitable.  However in Nova Scotia where well liked and Tories are still like old PCs, I think he could win Nova Scotia PC leadership someday and became premier of Nova Scotia.

[mileslunn]

I think O'Toole is definitely a step up from Scheer, and MacKay is overrated.  That being said getting to something like the Harper '08 map seems increasingly difficult given the liberal trends.

I would say 150 seats is probably the ceiling for the Tories barring a major breakthrough in Quebec.  Only way I see that happening is if O'Toole gets Legault's endorsement which I think is very unlikely.  And we still don't yet know if pandemic just leads to temporary shift left or a permanent leftward shift.  With people losing jobs and needing government support, understandable parties on left are more appealing.  Once vaccine is developed and recovery is complete, will voters return to previous more centrist stance or permanently shift left like US did after Great Depression with FDR's New Deal.  Probably won't have answer to this for a while, but if former Tories probably have good shot in election after next (not next but one after) as Liberals will have been in power for 10 years thus people developing fatigue.  If latter, Tories could be out of office for a very long time and even outside possibility they go the way the Social Credit of Alberta and Union Nationale of Quebec do, that is die off.

[mileslunn]

The emergence of the millennial generation, the dominance of the Liberals among educated, metropolitan and ethnic minority voters, and the pandemic are all making the Conservative path to victory more and more difficult.

I think that is very true and while some have questioned my statement, I firmly believe Canada is one of if not the most left wing countries in the Western world.  I think conservatism faces a much bleaker future in Canada than both the past and elsewhere.  I think urbanization, more university educated, plus millennials is helping to create a permanent left wing majority in Canada.

[mileslunn]

Nothing is forever in politics, but right now Canada is one of if not the most left wing countries in developed world.  While future is unpredictable, I do think predicting that Tories will be in opposition for many years to come is not an unreasonable one.  My prediction is Liberals win a majority and Tories fall to under 100 seats, possibly as low as 80 seats.  Public generally aligns with Liberals while dislikes Tories.  After that Trudeau resigns as PM in year 3 and Freeland takes over and wins another majority.  After that she wins again so I think Tories don't come back to office until at least 2030, quite possibly longer.  Also I think party is at least 3 leaders away from next PM, quite possibly more.  Only danger for Liberals is they got too cocky and overplay hand, but I think public loathes Tories so much Liberals can pretty much do whatever they want and win and its just a matter of whether a majority or minority.  Those mentioning party won popular vote forget crisis lead to big shifts.

Pandemic has destroyed conservatism and Western Alienation while it still exists is much weaker than 6 months ago.  In fact one poll showed Albertans prefer Trudeau over Kenney so even Alberta I believe is shifting away from conservatism.  I think Notley has a much better chance of winning next election than does O'Toole and I think NDP will return to power in Alberta well before Tories do federally.

[mileslunn]

Scheer has no choice but to remain an MP. The guy has no profession to fall back on. What’s he going to do? Go back to being a junior assistance to an insurance adjuster?

True enough and while unlikely, what happens if he loses his seat?  I think with pandemic, you may see a big shift left that wipes out the Tories even in safe ridings.

[mileslunn]

Its true our tax revenues are lower than most, but left is not just about size of government, its also about progressivity of tax system and Canada's tax system is more progressive than most of Europe.  Netherlands and Germany have much higher taxes on middle class, but lower on wealthy or at least top rates comparable to Prairie provinces not rest of Canada (SK and Germany at 47.5%, Alberta 48%, Netherlands 49.5%, Manitoba 50.4%, whereas BC and Ontario are 53.5% while Quebec is 53.3%.   Japan is 55.9% though but due to larger senior's population have to tax more but get less in return).  Left though in Canada is somewhat hypocritical as want bigger welfare state, but only have rich pay for it and unfortunately in Canada there aren't enough rich for this to work, you have to tax middle class like in Europe which Canadian left opposes.

Also there is a thing called inertia as often government programs more a reflection of where median voter was in the past, not today as it takes time for impacts to be seen.  I think in 20 years from now, Canada will have bigger government than those mentioned due to lag factor.

[mileslunn]

If Calgary and Edmonton start voting more like "normal" big cities and less for the "party of Alberta" that would be devastating for the Tories.  But I'll believe it when I see it.  That will probably happen only if  the full  "Americanization" of Canadian politics (i.e. almost completely demographic-driven) takes place.

That would be devastating to Tories short term, but would probably force Tories back towards centre like old PCs long term.  Although with Kenney's low approval ratings, I actually think Kenney might have pushed conservatism a little too far and you may see Calgary and Edmonton start voting more like other cities.  That being said both cities extend out to countryside so it would more like Winnipeg than 416 or Vancouver proper.  Cities like GTA and GVRD, otherwise central parts would go NDP/Liberal all the time, while suburban parts along periphery would be bellwethers.