August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[MaxQue]

Michelle Rempel is really is a nasty anti-French piece of work, isn't she?

[MaxQue]

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

If I redistribute the votes according to 2nd choice, I get for votes:
MacKay 51.0%, O'Toole 49.0%

If I try to simulate points by using regional samples and the same 2nd choice tables (and supposing every riding votes votes the same within a region), I get:
MacKay 50.5%, O'Toole 49.5% (in points 16925 to 16575 with 300 territories points not distributed).

This race is not MacKay's to lose.

[MaxQue]

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.

Is likely, given the page about report by candidates, that it is O'Toole - > MacKay and Sloane and Lewis -> O'Toole.

[MaxQue]

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.

Is likely, given the page about report by candidates, that it is O'Toole - > MacKay and Sloane and Lewis -> O'Toole.

I'm not claiming MacKay is getting more Sloane & Lewis voters than O'Toole, but O'Toole is obviously not gonna get all of the Sloane & Lewis voters either. Hence "a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters" - MacKay is getting enough Sloane & Lewis voters to win.

From the crosstabs (assuming undecided split the same way as the decided ones), MacKay gets 37% of Sloane voters and 27% of Lewis voters, which is enough, but very barely.

[MaxQue]

The Conservative party has 269,469 members eligible to vote. That is about 10,000 more than in 2017.

I don't know if they have released specific numbers but they say the largest growth was in Nova Scotia, Quebec Newfoundland Labrador and Alberta. Alberta was already big so with one of the biggest growth must be huge now.

Biggest riding membership: Battle River–Crowfoot, Calgary Centre, Foothills, Cypress Hills–Grasslands,  Banff–Airdrie, Oxford, Calgary Signal Hill, Edmonton–Wetaskiwin, Lethbridge, Parry Sound–Muskoka, Red Deer–Mountain View, Langley–Aldergrove.
8 from Alberta, 2 Ontario, 1 Saskatchewan, 1 BC

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

That Quebec list screams Italian.

[MaxQue]

Here's the first round:



What do Rainy River, Kitchener Centre and Bourassa have in common? Beats me!

Kitchener Centre was the seat of Stephen Woodworth, whose single issue was abortion, may have had effects in the composition of the riding association (and may explain how a 2008 Harper seat is now a Liberal-Green fight).