August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Estrella]

I can think of a lot of puns if John Tory becomes Leader. (He was included in a poll)

I wonder if he would end up as much of a hilarious failure as he was in Ontario Not that he would ever get elected - Tory by name, (almost) Liberal by nature.

[Estrella]

Charest is out.

I'm pleasantly surprised that he had enough sense to drop out. I'm amazed that he had the amount of self-delusion to think that 1. members from rural Ontario and Prairies would vote for him over literally anybody else and 2. he would have any chance in Québec after the early 2010s corruptionfest.

[Estrella]

Someone leaked a video of O'Toole courting social conservatives.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-otoole-social-conservative-leadership-1.5613399

It used to be other parties that did this to the Conservatives, link someone with conservative social views or groups to scare but now the party is doing it internally.

Is this going to hurt him at all? Because I don't have the impression that many party members would be opposed to this - after all, it's only a vague hint about being "concerned", O'Toole isn't going all GOP. Sure, there might be a few people who might agree but not want him as a leader because it could hurt the party, but if anyone thinks that way, they're probably a political analyst, not a card-carrying Tory.

[Estrella]

Also, this is pretty off-topic, but I couldn't help it because it's hilarious.

https://twitter.com/ErinOTooleMP/status/1272959639689273350

Sounds like a weirdo Pirate politician circa 2010: "How are we going to topple the Trudeau regime? With LIKES and ONLINE SUPPORT, of course!"

[Estrella]

Remarkable how Lewis led the popular vote on the second ballot. Imagining her as leader seems as unlikely and surprising as imaging Trump as the nominee in 2015 (no intention to compare the two at all).

Again, it's a reflection of where the critical Conservative leadership-voting blocs exist in this day and age.  And for perspective's sake, there were fewer *total* first-round voters in the Ile de Montreal *at large* (and even that total was vestigially plumped within the "white Anglo establishment" electorate) than there were social conservative voters in the single riding of Foothills.

This is bound to lead to some efforts (even if unsuccesful) to abolish the electoral college and move to one member-one vote, isn't it?

[Estrella]

Nothing is forever in politics, but right now Canada is one of if not the most left wing countries in developed world. 

Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP: 31.7%. I gather Japan (36%), Netherlands (40%) or Germany (45%) are run by Stalinists then?

Government spending as a percentage of GDP: 40.7%. I guess I should tell that one random Rose Twitter dude to move to South Korea (43%) or Austria (48%).

Public generally aligns with Liberals while dislikes Tories.

In early September 1993, public generally aligned with Tories and six weeks later gave them all of two seats in parliament.

Only danger for Liberals is they got too cocky and overplay hand, but I think public loathes Tories so much Liberals can pretty much do whatever they want and win and its just a matter of whether a majority or minority.

I'll give you credit here for explaining Justin Trudeau's thought processes (or what I assume they are - it would explain his propensity to constantly dig himself into the most stupid holes).

Pandemic has destroyed conservatism

It has temporarily weakened a certain form of fiscal conservatism. Remember when the FLQ attacks, the 1980 referendum loss, the 1995 referendum loss, the 2007 provincial election and the 2011 federal election destroyed Quebec nationalism? Yeah, I do, and so do the 32 Bloc MPs in the House of Commons. All that happened was that it moderated and changed its messaging, but as long as there is a Quebec, there will be demand for some sort of nationalism. Just the same way that as long as a society exists, there will be demand for some sort of conservatism.