August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[brucejoel99]

Whoever it ends up being, I hope it triggers the SoCon/Wexiteers to the point that they split off & form another party.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/nspector4/status/1207368435895689218

You son of a bitch, I'm in!

[brucejoel99]

That is very different to this country generally! Any possible reasons?

There's a variety of reasons:

A. It's usually because parties wanna give themselves a breather after an election which they've lost, while also giving their next leader time to make themselves known prior to the the next election.

B. Candidates need time to gauge whether they have enough money, influence, & support before announcing. Indeed, cost is a pretty big issue, as parties have to impose pretty strict spending limits so as to ensure that 1) it's not simply the candidate with the most money who wins, & 2) the process doesn't tap out the party's donor base.

C. Parties prefer to wait & see what issues crystallize around the new government &, thus, what their constituents want of them.

D. There's no rush, in that the Liberals have a pretty solid minority, & that the NDP are broke, so there's no chance that they'll be bringing down the government, meaning an election won't be happening for a good while.

[brucejoel99]

Charest is out.

After Harper specifically left his neutral-by-party-rules position in order to block Charest, it was kind of a done deal. When Harper is against you, you don't have much of a chance. That he was willing to make such a big deal out of it was weird, but doing so killed his campaign before it even started. If Harper decides to back anybody, I assume they'll win the leadership.

https://twitter.com/MALeclerc_/status/1220022240173002752

He's dead in the water, guaranteed. He won't catch on & will drop out to support Poilievre in what'll eventually be a Poilievre vs. MacKay race. Gladu will also drop out, but she'll support MacKay.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1220064004569214978

Officially starting the campaign without a media availability? That's sure to set the tone for his run, as well as his tenure, if elected.

This run has obviously been on the books since spring 2015, when he ducked out of the house before Harper's inevitable loss & cited his love of family as to why he had to leave federal politics. Guess that changed?

Yeah, he's got somewhat of a polling lead on the other candidates, but that's not saying much; worth noting that, this far out in the last race, O'Leary was a front runner, so a lot can happen.

Regardless, though, I think that if they have to go back to the past to get a leader, then that says a lot about the viability of the CPC going forward. MacKay may be a great politician, but he's clearly a politician from back in the day, & if that's the best that the CPC has, well... okay, I guess? But that's a big problem, though.

Ambrose announces she's out.

Glad it's official. I don't really blame her; signing up for this race is no guarantee that you won't be replaced in a couple years just like Scheer. It's a lot of attention, & requires giving up that cushy private sector life. Not to mention, the cost of running, since the required funds for this election have been raised substantially compared to the last contest.

Despite being the 'favorite', she wasn't exactly polling highly. I think she was topping out <20% support? Since the CPC use a ranked ballot system, that kind of polling doesn't necessarily translate to a win.

Now that it's official (instead of just being rumored for weeks), I wonder if she'll endorse somebody (specifically, Gladu, based on her statement).

[brucejoel99]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

This is still Stephen Harper's party. They'll do what they do.

[brucejoel99]

Poilievre says he won't run for family reasons and won't be endorsing anyone yet.

WTF!?!

This is a huge surprise. Something big must've happened.

With him out of the way, though, it's now MacKay's to lose.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1221100162271121410

Honestly, I struggle to see the point of this. O'Toole represents largely the same constituency of voters as MacKay, but is less popular among them. I expect his campaign to focus on foreign policy issues but I simply don't think that's enough to get him the win, & it's not like he's not already guaranteed a Cabinet post in a MacKay government, so it doesn't seem as if there's really a need to up his profile. I don't know why he's trying.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1221433878524637185

If Michael Chong led the Conservatives, then they could probably form a government, but they'd have to convince their base that the carbon tax (which was originally a conservative idea) isn't an evil communist plot.

Regardless, though, even if he doesn't win the leadership, I hope whoever wins (in all likelihood, MacKay) does indeed let Chong handle the party's environment/climate policy.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1221100162271121410

Honestly, I struggle to see the point of this. O'Toole represents largely the same constituency of voters as MacKay, but is less popular among them. I expect his campaign to focus on foreign policy issues but I simply don't think that's enough to get him the win, & it's not like he's not already guaranteed a Cabinet post in a MacKay government, so it doesn't seem as if there's really a need to up his profile. I don't know why he's trying.

I thought the same thing initially, but the way the field's shaken out, it's gone pretty well for him. There's a huge chunk of members who are to the right of MacKay but aren't voting for factional socon candidates.

He has a clear (if uphill) path to victory this time at least.

Does he really, though? I mean, I'm not saying that nobody should run against MacKay, but I just don't understand why O'Toole would when his entire 2017 leadership campaign basically relied on trying to get most of the PC & Atlantic vote, which MacKay has entirely wrapped up this time.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/candicebergenmp/status/1222692571203493891

How much of her profile in Canadian politics is related to people immediately recognizing her name because she shares it with a '90s sitcom star?

[brucejoel99]

MacKay is already shuffling his team and his organization is er, rather disorganized ATM. But he's still heavily favoured.

If MacKay thinks that because he's a heavy early favorite that he can slack off & not keep a tight ship, then he'll regret it. If he continues down this path, then he may very well go the way that Biden's campaign has gone thus far.

[brucejoel99]

Baird is considering but says the window's closing.

He's gonna be in the media every other day testing the waters now so that won't be annoying at all.

I'm not even sure where he fits on the palette. A more refined Peter MacKay? Can't see him swinging right with O'Toole. Anything left of blue Tory & he'll be a liberal to the membership. Definitely not a social conservative.

Never mind that, though. Baird's reputation was seriously tarnished when he appeared sympathetic to the Saudis during Canada's spat with them over human rights, & you better believe that Trudeau has the Saudi tapes on stand by in case of a Baird win, so I'm sure the Liberals would be thrilled were he to do so. He just makes it too easy for those attack ads.

[brucejoel99]

Is campaigning even still going on right now amidst the coronavirus crisis?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1242219871951294464

Moving the vote forward would be weird. Either keep the date or push it back (hell, it's not like the government's falling anytime soon anyway).

[brucejoel99]

Idiotic.

https://twitter.com/atRachelGilmore/status/1243289158795354117

This lunatic quest essentially confirms everything I've ever thought about MacKay. He looks good - sometimes, he even sounds good - but he has zero judgement.

[brucejoel99]

Race resumes now and will end on August 21.

August feels like a solid lifetime away, even with the years of March & April finally behind us. What's more, that's a hell of a long time for the CPC to hold onto a political zombie as their leader.

[brucejoel99]

Mainstreet poll of 6624 party members.

Peter MacKay 40%
Erin O'Toole 34%
Leslyn Lewis 9%
Derek Sloan 5%

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/12/mackay-leads-cpc-leadership-race-but-otoole-popular-as-second-choice-of-lewis-sloan-backers-mainstreet-poll/

O'Toole has more second choice support. MacKay has a big lead in Atlantic provinces, other regions are close.

With these numbers, O'Toole would win if this were a popular vote race: MacKay couldn't win on the first ballot & Sloan/Lewis supporters would back O'Toole before MacKay as their 2nd choice.

Unfortunately, though, polls like this are useless since the voting is weighted on the per-riding basis. With MacKay having his support more efficiently distributed in the east (with support in Ontario &, critically, Atlantic Canada), if O'Toole is simply cleaning up in the West (especially Alberta), then MacKay could very well still win on the 1st ballot by sweeping smaller ridings in Eastern & Central Canada, even if O'Toole is raking in tens of thousands of more raw votes that just happen to be concentrated in a smaller number of ridings.

[brucejoel99]

How do you think either two would perform in general election.

...

What are others thoughts?  Should party even try to win or should it be more staying relevant until political scene changes.

MacKay or O'Toole obviously have a chance to upright the sinking ship that Scheer will leave them, but it's not gonna be easy. Mackay in particular probably thought that he could sail in & become PM sometime soon after the Trudeau show drew itself to a close; that's obviously gonna take longer than expected now on account of how much ground there is to recover. Whoever wins, they've got a job ahead of them because Trudeau has proven himself to be a very effective leader & I imagine even those who generally lean Conservative will think twice before deciding to chuck Trudeau out for an untested alternative in a time of crisis.

IMO, the next CPC leader will likely need 2 elections to come within striking distance of Trudeau. Both MacKay & O'Toole are producing lots of attack-ad material for the Liberals as they seek support from the right flank of the CPC membership. A 3rd Trudeau government would give the public a chance to forget the current partisan pandering & become tired of Trudeau.

[brucejoel99]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

[brucejoel99]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

I thought the Comedy of Theresa May would have taught every anglosphere politician how horribly things like this can backfire in the modern era.

Eh, it can backfire but only if you f**k up the campaign itself as badly as May did. I'd hope Trudeau can't manage to f**k up that badly.

[brucejoel99]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

That doesn't mean he won't or can't hold a snap election before 2023. It's totally possible that in=f the summer of 2021 the virus has receded and he's perceived to have handled the crisis really well, he'll call another election and get a decent majority.

I wouldn't worry about 2017 UK parallels mostly because Trudeau, for his faults, is still a better politician that Theresa May, and the Libs are a little more in tune with what Canadian voters wants compared to Tories with British voters

Agreed he will wait until it has receded so sometime next year.  As for more in tune, generally true, but he is prone to stupid mistakes that is why he lost his majority so while in good shape now that could change.  Also large deficit could be a problem too.  That being said I am not personally a Trudeau fan, but agree here he will probably try before the hard decisions have to be made but also wait until there is no risk of another wave.

Eh, every single government around the world is deficit spending & increasing their national debt right now (& understandably so), so I'd like to think that wouldn't be a huge issue for Trudeau.

[brucejoel99]

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

[brucejoel99]

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.

[brucejoel99]

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.

Is likely, given the page about report by candidates, that it is O'Toole - > MacKay and Sloane and Lewis -> O'Toole.

I'm not claiming MacKay is getting more Sloane & Lewis voters than O'Toole, but O'Toole is obviously not gonna get all of the Sloane & Lewis voters either. Hence "a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters" - MacKay is getting enough Sloane & Lewis voters to win.