August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[LabourJersey]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

That doesn't mean he won't or can't hold a snap election before 2023. It's totally possible that in=f the summer of 2021 the virus has receded and he's perceived to have handled the crisis really well, he'll call another election and get a decent majority.

I wouldn't worry about 2017 UK parallels mostly because Trudeau, for his faults, is still a better politician that Theresa May, and the Libs are a little more in tune with what Canadian voters wants compared to Tories with British voters

[LabourJersey]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

That doesn't mean he won't or can't hold a snap election before 2023. It's totally possible that in=f the summer of 2021 the virus has receded and he's perceived to have handled the crisis really well, he'll call another election and get a decent majority.

I wouldn't worry about 2017 UK parallels mostly because Trudeau, for his faults, is still a better politician that Theresa May, and the Libs are a little more in tune with what Canadian voters wants compared to Tories with British voters

Agreed he will wait until it has receded so sometime next year.  As for more in tune, generally true, but he is prone to stupid mistakes that is why he lost his majority so while in good shape now that could change.  Also large deficit could be a problem too.  That being said I am not personally a Trudeau fan, but agree here he will probably try before the hard decisions have to be made but also wait until there is no risk of another wave.

Agreed--Trudeau made some huge mistakes. My post was more based around how I think May was just a really, really bad politician (at least in terms of campaigning and electoral calculus), which is one of a few reasons why the 2017 UK election is hard to extrapolate to other elections in the English speaking political world

[LabourJersey]

Another weird thing to consider: O'Toole is a year and a month *younger* than Justin, though he looks much older.  (And one can definitely see the Cons spinning that to their anti-Justin/anti-Peter Pan advantage)

Hair (and lack thereof) matters.

Trudeau also just has a more boy-ish face, I suppose.