August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Don Vito Corleone]

It wasn't that long ago people were writing the Liberal Party's obituary. Especially in a country like Canada, which is so prone to wild swings, I would advise against making long term predictions like that.

[CumbrianLefty]

It wasn't that long ago people were writing the Liberal Party's obituary.

Less than a decade ago, in fact.

[King of Kensington]

If Calgary and Edmonton start voting more like "normal" big cities and less for the "party of Alberta" that would be devastating for the Tories.  But I'll believe it when I see it.  That will probably happen only if  the full  "Americanization" of Canadian politics (i.e. almost completely demographic-driven) takes place.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals also benefit from a fairly weakened NDP, and Trudeau campaigns and governs just progressively enough to bury the NDP vote. 

[mileslunn]

If Calgary and Edmonton start voting more like "normal" big cities and less for the "party of Alberta" that would be devastating for the Tories.  But I'll believe it when I see it.  That will probably happen only if  the full  "Americanization" of Canadian politics (i.e. almost completely demographic-driven) takes place.

That would be devastating to Tories short term, but would probably force Tories back towards centre like old PCs long term.  Although with Kenney's low approval ratings, I actually think Kenney might have pushed conservatism a little too far and you may see Calgary and Edmonton start voting more like other cities.  That being said both cities extend out to countryside so it would more like Winnipeg than 416 or Vancouver proper.  Cities like GTA and GVRD, otherwise central parts would go NDP/Liberal all the time, while suburban parts along periphery would be bellwethers.

[adma]

The Liberals also benefit from a fairly weakened NDP, and Trudeau campaigns and governs just progressively enough to bury the NDP vote. 

It could well be the case by e-day, as it's so often been (and throw the Green vote into that, too).  But one can argue that except in 2011 (and in Western Canada in the 80s), the federal NDP has *always* been "fairly weakened"--in fact, with Leger currently showing them at 21%, the NDP's actually holding up quite well by traditional standards.  (But of course, come whatever moment that O'Toole shows signs of catching on, watch the Libs bid to cannibalize that support yet once again)

[Kingpoleon]

It has temporarily weakened a certain form of fiscal conservatism. Remember when the FLQ attacks, the 1980 referendum loss, the 1995 referendum loss, the 2007 provincial election and the 2011 federal election destroyed Quebec nationalism? Yeah, I do, and so do the 32 Bloc MPs in the House of Commons. All that happened was that it moderated and changed its messaging, but as long as there is a Quebec, there will be demand for some sort of nationalism. Just the same way that as long as a society exists, there will be demand for some sort of conservatism.

I should note that Canadian Conservatives are distinct, in the sense that a key thing uniting them is an agreement about the oil & gas industry. At some point, this will cause resentment among the Conservative base and could be the opening for an environmentalist Conservative faction at some point, more out of opposition to a platform focused on that one particular issue than on a real commitment thereof.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals also benefit from a fairly weakened NDP, and Trudeau campaigns and governs just progressively enough to bury the NDP vote. 

It could well be the case by e-day, as it's so often been (and throw the Green vote into that, too).  But one can argue that except in 2011 (and in Western Canada in the 80s), the federal NDP has *always* been "fairly weakened"--in fact, with Leger currently showing them at 21%, the NDP's actually holding up quite well by traditional standards.  (But of course, come whatever moment that O'Toole shows signs of catching on, watch the Libs bid to cannibalize that support yet once again)

But the "sorting" of the Conservative vote may be hurting the NDP's ability to win seats.

[mileslunn]

The Liberals also benefit from a fairly weakened NDP, and Trudeau campaigns and governs just progressively enough to bury the NDP vote. 

It could well be the case by e-day, as it's so often been (and throw the Green vote into that, too).  But one can argue that except in 2011 (and in Western Canada in the 80s), the federal NDP has *always* been "fairly weakened"--in fact, with Leger currently showing them at 21%, the NDP's actually holding up quite well by traditional standards.  (But of course, come whatever moment that O'Toole shows signs of catching on, watch the Libs bid to cannibalize that support yet once again)

But the "sorting" of the Conservative vote may be hurting the NDP's ability to win seats.

Very true as a lot of traditional blue collar areas like Oshawa, Brantford, Essex, Saskatchewan, part of Interior like Cariboo, Kamloops and Kootenay-Columbia are shifting away although this is not unique to Canada, but happening globally.  Niagara Centre actually I think is a low hanging fruit for the Tories and would not be surprised if in near future both provincially and federally they flip this.  On other hand upper middle class areas like North Shore in Lower Mainland, Burlington, and Kanata-Carleton which were once safe Tory seats are now trending Liberal.  Similar to what you are seeing in traditional GOP areas in US like Collar Counties of Chicago and Orange County, California which once used to be solid GOP but now lean Democrat.  Also seeing this in UK, with well to do areas in London no longer Tory strongholds like they once were, but offset but gains in North and Midlands.

[King of Kensington]

Not just the traditional blue collar vote, increasing Liberal support in the "urban progressive" constituency has hurt the NDP as well.

[DC Al Fine]

Not just the traditional blue collar vote, increasing Liberal support in the "urban progressive" constituency has hurt the NDP as well.

Yeah, it really threw me for a loop that the NDP lost 5-10% in ridings like University-Rosedale, Parkdale-High Park, and Ottawa Centre last year. It's not like voters there needed to vote Liberal to keep the Tories from winning those seats.

[King of Kensington]

Lack of incumbents may explain the dropoff but these are some of the most progressive electoral districts in the country.  Hard for the NDP to be viable when they're shut out of Canada's largest city.

And I can't really see Jagmeet pulling off the ca. 2014 "screw those latte-sipping elites I'm focusing on the working class of SW Ontario" type campaign.  

[adma]

Not just the traditional blue collar vote, increasing Liberal support in the "urban progressive" constituency has hurt the NDP as well.

Yeah, it really threw me for a loop that the NDP lost 5-10% in ridings like University-Rosedale, Parkdale-High Park, and Ottawa Centre last year. It's not like voters there needed to vote Liberal to keep the Tories from winning those seats.

I don't think it should be *that* surprising--remember that until Jagmeet proved to be not-half-bad on the stump, the party practically looked set to be Audreyed.  To the point where their Toronto strategy was basically reduced to a "Andrew Cash Davenport toehold" strategy. 

Thus, such underperformance was more a vestigial reflection of the NDP's depleted infrastructure going into the election.  Those ridings where they were a distant 2nd at 20%--they were poised to be an even more distant 2nd, or 3rd, or even 4th, at the moment the writ was dropped.  Essentially, they went from being Audreyed to being somewhere between Alexa'd and early-Jacked.

[adma]

And I can't really see Jagmeet pulling off the ca. 2014 "screw those latte-sipping elites I'm focusing on the working class of SW Ontario" type campaign.  

Maybe not, but don't entirely rule out some counterintuitive "good faith" support a la Jack Layton, even in an era when blue-collar right-populism seems more impermeable than ever.  But a big imponderable there (and plugging back into this thread's subject matter) would be the Jagmeet vs Erin question--especially presuming that O'Toole's less stigmatized (particularly for being Upper Canadian rather than Western) than Scheer.

Though following from that in the *other* direction (and echoing trends in the US, UK and elsewhere) would be the potential for Conservative inroads in Northern Ontario--and there were even some signals last year (aside from the Kenora takeback) that a future Bishop Aucklanding of the North shouldn't be ruled out (including unexpectedly pipping ahead of the Libs for 2nd in the two remaining NDP-held seats)

[King of Kensington]

Singh is certainly trying to "outdo" Trudeau on both "culture war" and economic issues.  But I suspect voters see the difference between them as differences in degree, not in kind.   

[King of Kensington]

Trinity-Spadina '97 = Davenport '19

[Continential]

And I can't really see Jagmeet pulling off the ca. 2014 "screw those latte-sipping elites I'm focusing on the working class of SW Ontario" type campaign.  

He would have to be white and not have a "hipster" persona.

[King of Kensington]

O'Toole makes a direct appeal to the working class vote:

https://twitter.com/ErinOTooleMP/status/1302991683072798721

[DC Al Fine]

O'Toole makes a direct appeal to the working class vote:

https://twitter.com/ErinOTooleMP/status/1302991683072798721

This is the route the Tories and most right wing parties in the Anglosphere ought to go. As the left moves upscale, the right will need to consolidate the upper working class/petit bourgeois vote.

Andrew Coyne has already slammed the video, so it's probably a good strategy. I enjoy Coyne's columns but a good judge of electoral winners, he is not

[DC Al Fine]

O'Toole has released his shadow cabinet. Some notable posts include:

Defence: James Bezan
Finance: Pierre Poilievre
Foreign Affairs: Michael Chong
Health: Michelle Rempel
Industry: James Cumming
Infrastructure: Andrew Scheer
Intergovernmental Affairs: Chris d'Entremont
Justice: Rob Moore
Labour: Mark Strahl

[King of Kensington]

O'Toole seems to be the 2020 version of Diefenbaker Toryism.

[DC Al Fine]

O'Toole seems to be the 2020 version of Diefenbaker Toryism.

Yass Queen!

[King of Kensington]

Unlike the tone-deaf Scheer, O'Toole seems like an astute observer of politics.  This message should play well in places like Niagara, Sault Ste. Marie, Cape Breton. 

The problem is the anti-Conservative trend and the juggernauts of suburban GTA and Lower Mainland - a lot harder to win now than a decade ago.

[brucejoel99]

Overall, pretty decent (if perhaps unsurprising) picks by O'Toole. Not a cabinet-in-waiting by any means, but a pretty decent Opposition line-up.

[King of Kensington]

Steve Paikin interviews Erin O'Toole:

https://www.tvo.org/video/erin-otoole-canadas-new-conservative-party-leader