August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Kingpoleon]

Will O’Toole hold onto Scheer’s Cabinet mostly? And do you guys think he’ll give concessions to both Sloan and Lewis?

[King of Kensington]

What Scheer Cabinet?

[Kingpoleon]

What Scheer Cabinet?

The Shadow Ministers, many of whom endorsed MacKay.

[brucejoel99]

He'll be announcing his shadow cabinet next week (relevant mention is at 4:05 in that linked video).

[adma]

What Scheer Cabinet?

The Shadow Ministers, many of whom endorsed MacKay.

I don't think there's as much of a gulf btw/ MacKay and O'Toole as there was btw/ Christine Elliott and Doug Ford in Ontario in 2018.  That is, those who endorsed MacKay aren't exactly in a grinning-and-bearing-it/plugging-their-nose situation re O'Toole.

[DC Al Fine]

What Scheer Cabinet?

The Shadow Ministers, many of whom endorsed MacKay.

I don't think there's as much of a gulf btw/ MacKay and O'Toole as there was btw/ Christine Elliott and Doug Ford in Ontario in 2018.  That is, those who endorsed MacKay aren't exactly in a grinning-and-bearing-it/plugging-their-nose situation re O'Toole.

Yes. The main thing I'm looking for is the size of the cabinet. Scheer built that ludicrous sized shadow cabinet after the last election in an effort to win support from caucus. I wonder if O'Toole will keep it that way or cut it down to a normal size?

Will O’Toole hold onto Scheer’s Cabinet mostly? And do you guys think he’ll give concessions to both Sloan and Lewis?

There aren't really concessions in leadership races per se. Lewis will run in the next election and almost certainly get a cabinet spot if she wins. We socons will get a few bones throne to us if we are in power, but those aren't really concessions per se. Just the status quo of how Canadian politics are done.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals were a distant third among Blacks in the 2018 provincial election. They make up a big part of the Fordnation constituency, and the NDP may have done well as well among Blacks (they certainly elected a lot of Black MPPs, enough to form their own caucus!)

The Liberals were a distant third among most demographic groups, to be fair. 2018 Ontario isn't really a good benchmark because it was a PC-NDP race, which is a rarity in both Ontario and federal politics. In a Liberal-CPC dynamic, black voters are overwhelmingly with the Liberals. If I had to pick one racial group that the Liberals won by the biggest margin in 2019, in Ontario or otherwise, it would be black Canadians.

It is a bit difficult to extrapolate the black vote based on election results though, simply because they don't really make up a significant voting bloc in most parts of Ontario. The few black enclaves that do exist are in electoral districts where larger ethnic groups outnumber them (Italians+Portuguese in YSW, Indians in Brampton, Scarborough, and Ajax, white Anglos and Arabs in Ottawa South, and white Francos in Ottawa Vanier). The only Ontario riding where they are the largest ethnic group is HR-BC, and even there, black voters are only a quarter of the population.

Based on the poll-by-poll results in the 2018 ON election, black voters probably voted NDP by a notable margin, with the PCs second and Liberals in third. But I also think it depends on where you look. In Ottawa, for example, I wouldn't be surprised if black voters backed the Liberals ahead of the NDP with PCs in a distant third.

[adma]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals were a distant third among Blacks in the 2018 provincial election. They make up a big part of the Fordnation constituency, and the NDP may have done well as well among Blacks (they certainly elected a lot of Black MPPs, enough to form their own caucus!)

The Liberals were a distant third among most demographic groups, to be fair. 2018 Ontario isn't really a good benchmark because it was a PC-NDP race, which is a rarity in both Ontario and federal politics.

If the Liberals remained buoyant with any group in 2018, it was with Islamic voters--though there, one has to deal with isolated nodes to deduce that fact.  (Even in Cambridge, the "Muslim poll" stood out for its solid support for the otherwise third-place Liberal incumbent.)

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals were a distant third among Blacks in the 2018 provincial election. They make up a big part of the Fordnation constituency, and the NDP may have done well as well among Blacks (they certainly elected a lot of Black MPPs, enough to form their own caucus!)

The Liberals were a distant third among most demographic groups, to be fair. 2018 Ontario isn't really a good benchmark because it was a PC-NDP race, which is a rarity in both Ontario and federal politics.

If the Liberals remained buoyant with any group in 2018, it was with Islamic voters--though there, one has to deal with isolated nodes to deduce that fact.  (Even in Cambridge, the "Muslim poll" stood out for its solid support for the otherwise third-place Liberal incumbent.)

Yes, I think Muslims can give Blacks a run for their money as most loyal Liberal voters. Not exactly comparing apples and oranges there, though.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals were a distant third among Blacks in the 2018 provincial election. They make up a big part of the Fordnation constituency, and the NDP may have done well as well among Blacks (they certainly elected a lot of Black MPPs, enough to form their own caucus!)

The Liberals were a distant third among most demographic groups, to be fair. 2018 Ontario isn't really a good benchmark because it was a PC-NDP race, which is a rarity in both Ontario and federal politics. In a Liberal-CPC dynamic, black voters are overwhelmingly with the Liberals. If I had to pick one racial group that the Liberals won by the biggest margin in 2019, in Ontario or otherwise, it would be black Canadians.

It is a bit difficult to extrapolate the black vote based on election results though, simply because they don't really make up a significant voting bloc in most parts of Ontario. The few black enclaves that do exist are in electoral districts where larger ethnic groups outnumber them (Italians+Portuguese in YSW, Indians in Brampton, Scarborough, and Ajax, white Anglos and Arabs in Ottawa South, and white Francos in Ottawa Vanier). The only Ontario riding where they are the largest ethnic group is HR-BC, and even there, black voters are only a quarter of the population.

Based on the poll-by-poll results in the 2018 ON election, black voters probably voted NDP by a notable margin, with the PCs second and Liberals in third. But I also think it depends on where you look. In Ottawa, for example, I wouldn't be surprised if black voters backed the Liberals ahead of the NDP with PCs in a distant third.

Most likely. Many Blacks in Ottawa are also Muslim, so a double Liberal whammy. Areas with high Black populations like Overbrook, Heron Gate and Carson Meadows all went Liberal.

[DC Al Fine]

Scheer has announced he will be running for re-election. His seaf is pretty safe, so he should have the job as long as he wants it. I suppose we'll see him in a future cabinet which has got to be the first for a former leader since... Joe Clark?

[brucejoel99]

Scheer has announced he will be running for re-election. His seaf is pretty safe, so he should have the job as long as he wants it. I suppose we'll see him in a future cabinet which has got to be the first for a former leader since... Joe Clark?

While it's always possible he just wanted to continue to serve, this also raises the possibility that he tested the private business waters & they said "thanks but no thanks."

On one hand, that'd seem strange because it's a natural home for retiring politicians, but then again, what would he bring? He doesn't really have expertise outside of politics, & I can't imagine he was ever charismatic enough to develop a bunch of sought-after contacts. Harper seemed to bring a lot & so he was very desired; if Scheer got hired, it'd seem like somebody's doing him a favor.

[Poirot]

Scheer has announced he will be running for re-election. His seaf is pretty safe, so he should have the job as long as he wants it. I suppose we'll see him in a future cabinet which has got to be the first for a former leader since... Joe Clark?

Outside of Conservative politics, Stéphane Dion was in cabinet before Trudeau decided to get rid of him.

[DC Al Fine]

Scheer has announced he will be running for re-election. His seaf is pretty safe, so he should have the job as long as he wants it. I suppose we'll see him in a future cabinet which has got to be the first for a former leader since... Joe Clark?

Outside of Conservative politics, Stéphane Dion was in cabinet before Trudeau decided to get rid of him.

D'oh. Completely forgot about that.

[adma]

Scheer has announced he will be running for re-election. His seaf is pretty safe, so he should have the job as long as he wants it. I suppose we'll see him in a future cabinet which has got to be the first for a former leader since... Joe Clark?

Don't forget Stockwell Day.  (Or, for that matter, Peter MacKay, even if he never led in a general election)

[King of Kensington]

A bit strange to be discussing the LEAST Conservative constituencies.  Taking the discussion here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=327662.0

[King of Kensington]

In a real sense, the Conservative Party was the Harper Party; his goals were the party’s goals, his ideology was the party’s ideology, his vision was the party’s vision. And woe be to anybody who challenged his authority. This is why, after Harper left politics, the Conservatives lost their guiding and unifying force; Harperless, the Conservative Party is just a collection of right-wing factions and tribes who uncomfortably co-inhabit the same political club. So inevitably, the post-Harper Conservatives faced a personality crisis. What were they? What did they stand for? Where were they going?

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/08/26/erin-otooles-ghost-problem/261510

[King of Kensington]

The emergence of the millennial generation, the dominance of the Liberals among educated, metropolitan and ethnic minority voters, and the pandemic are all making the Conservative path to victory more and more difficult.

[mileslunn]

The emergence of the millennial generation, the dominance of the Liberals among educated, metropolitan and ethnic minority voters, and the pandemic are all making the Conservative path to victory more and more difficult.

I think that is very true and while some have questioned my statement, I firmly believe Canada is one of if not the most left wing countries in the Western world.  I think conservatism faces a much bleaker future in Canada than both the past and elsewhere.  I think urbanization, more university educated, plus millennials is helping to create a permanent left wing majority in Canada.

[DC Al Fine]

The emergence of the millennial generation, the dominance of the Liberals among educated, metropolitan and ethnic minority voters, and the pandemic are all making the Conservative path to victory more and more difficult.

I think that is very true and while some have questioned my statement, I firmly believe Canada is one of if not the most left wing countries in the Western world.  I think conservatism faces a much bleaker future in Canada than both the past and elsewhere.  I think urbanization, more university educated, plus millennials is helping to create a permanent left wing majority in Canada.

I won't deny the demographic difficulties the Tories face, but "permanent left wing majority"?! Geez louise, that's some strong rhetoric to use about the party that won the popular vote last time.

Look at what happened to the Tories from 1984-1993, or the Liberals from ca 2002-2011. If "The Tories will go from two hundred seats to two in eight years" or the "The Liberals will go from 50% in the polls to a distant third place in ten years" were actually correct predictions, no matter how implausible they seemed at the time, I'm loathe to rule out something as simple as the Tories managing a simple five point swing against a scandal prone government in a poor economy, much less 'permanent' anything.

[CumbrianLefty]

Things in politics that are asserted to be "forever" have this strange habit of turning out not to be

[DL]

Scheer has no choice but to remain an MP. The guy has no profession to fall back on. What’s he going to do? Go back to being a junior assistance to an insurance adjuster?

[mileslunn]

Nothing is forever in politics, but right now Canada is one of if not the most left wing countries in developed world.  While future is unpredictable, I do think predicting that Tories will be in opposition for many years to come is not an unreasonable one.  My prediction is Liberals win a majority and Tories fall to under 100 seats, possibly as low as 80 seats.  Public generally aligns with Liberals while dislikes Tories.  After that Trudeau resigns as PM in year 3 and Freeland takes over and wins another majority.  After that she wins again so I think Tories don't come back to office until at least 2030, quite possibly longer.  Also I think party is at least 3 leaders away from next PM, quite possibly more.  Only danger for Liberals is they got too cocky and overplay hand, but I think public loathes Tories so much Liberals can pretty much do whatever they want and win and its just a matter of whether a majority or minority.  Those mentioning party won popular vote forget crisis lead to big shifts.

Pandemic has destroyed conservatism and Western Alienation while it still exists is much weaker than 6 months ago.  In fact one poll showed Albertans prefer Trudeau over Kenney so even Alberta I believe is shifting away from conservatism.  I think Notley has a much better chance of winning next election than does O'Toole and I think NDP will return to power in Alberta well before Tories do federally.

[mileslunn]

Scheer has no choice but to remain an MP. The guy has no profession to fall back on. What’s he going to do? Go back to being a junior assistance to an insurance adjuster?

True enough and while unlikely, what happens if he loses his seat?  I think with pandemic, you may see a big shift left that wipes out the Tories even in safe ridings.

[Estrella]

Nothing is forever in politics, but right now Canada is one of if not the most left wing countries in developed world. 

Tax revenue as a percentage of GDP: 31.7%. I gather Japan (36%), Netherlands (40%) or Germany (45%) are run by Stalinists then?

Government spending as a percentage of GDP: 40.7%. I guess I should tell that one random Rose Twitter dude to move to South Korea (43%) or Austria (48%).

Public generally aligns with Liberals while dislikes Tories.

In early September 1993, public generally aligned with Tories and six weeks later gave them all of two seats in parliament.

Only danger for Liberals is they got too cocky and overplay hand, but I think public loathes Tories so much Liberals can pretty much do whatever they want and win and its just a matter of whether a majority or minority.

I'll give you credit here for explaining Justin Trudeau's thought processes (or what I assume they are - it would explain his propensity to constantly dig himself into the most stupid holes).

Pandemic has destroyed conservatism

It has temporarily weakened a certain form of fiscal conservatism. Remember when the FLQ attacks, the 1980 referendum loss, the 1995 referendum loss, the 2007 provincial election and the 2011 federal election destroyed Quebec nationalism? Yeah, I do, and so do the 32 Bloc MPs in the House of Commons. All that happened was that it moderated and changed its messaging, but as long as there is a Quebec, there will be demand for some sort of nationalism. Just the same way that as long as a society exists, there will be demand for some sort of conservatism.

[mileslunn]

Its true our tax revenues are lower than most, but left is not just about size of government, its also about progressivity of tax system and Canada's tax system is more progressive than most of Europe.  Netherlands and Germany have much higher taxes on middle class, but lower on wealthy or at least top rates comparable to Prairie provinces not rest of Canada (SK and Germany at 47.5%, Alberta 48%, Netherlands 49.5%, Manitoba 50.4%, whereas BC and Ontario are 53.5% while Quebec is 53.3%.   Japan is 55.9% though but due to larger senior's population have to tax more but get less in return).  Left though in Canada is somewhat hypocritical as want bigger welfare state, but only have rich pay for it and unfortunately in Canada there aren't enough rich for this to work, you have to tax middle class like in Europe which Canadian left opposes.

Also there is a thing called inertia as often government programs more a reflection of where median voter was in the past, not today as it takes time for impacts to be seen.  I think in 20 years from now, Canada will have bigger government than those mentioned due to lag factor.