August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[King of Kensington]

I think she would be daft to run in Etobicoke North. Yes it's Ford country, but it's also a riding that the Liberals won by over 10 points in their 2011 collapse, and by 39.2pts last year. Not to mention, Doug Ford has said he won't even campaign for the CPC in the next election, so that will hurt anyone trying to ride his coattails.

Bruce Stanton (Simcoe North) and Diane Finley (Haldimand-Norfolk) will not be running for the next election. Both are solid Conservative ridings, and interestingly Haldimand-Norfolk was one of the few seats east of Saskatchewan that voted for her on the first ballot. The only problem is she lives in Markham, which is 1.5 hours away from Simcoe North and 3 hours away from Haldimand-Norfolk. Or she could uproot her family and move to one of those areas, but it's not clear that she actually wants to do that.

I think what's most likely is that she runs somewhere in Markham or elsewhere in the York Region. Markham-Stouffville is the only winnable Markham riding with a Liberal incumbent, so she might try there. If she wants a safer option near home, she could try Richmond Hill.

She ran in Scarborough-Rouge Park in 2015 - the riding that had the highest Liberal vote share in the last federal election.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think she would be daft to run in Etobicoke North. Yes it's Ford country, but it's also a riding that the Liberals won by over 10 points in their 2011 collapse, and by 39.2pts last year. Not to mention, Doug Ford has said he won't even campaign for the CPC in the next election, so that will hurt anyone trying to ride his coattails.

Bruce Stanton (Simcoe North) and Diane Finley (Haldimand-Norfolk) will not be running for the next election. Both are solid Conservative ridings, and interestingly Haldimand-Norfolk was one of the few seats east of Saskatchewan that voted for her on the first ballot. The only problem is she lives in Markham, which is 1.5 hours away from Simcoe North and 3 hours away from Haldimand-Norfolk. Or she could uproot her family and move to one of those areas, but it's not clear that she actually wants to do that.

I think what's most likely is that she runs somewhere in Markham or elsewhere in the York Region. Markham-Stouffville is the only winnable Markham riding with a Liberal incumbent, so she might try there. If she wants a safer option near home, she could try Richmond Hill.

She ran in Scarborough-Rouge Park in 2015 - the riding that had the highest Liberal vote share in the last federal election.

She was parachuted into Scarborough-Rouge Park after the previous candidate was kicked off the ticket for being caught on camera peeing in a homeowner's coffee mug.

But yeah there's no way she's running there again. She didn't run in Scarborough Rouge Park hoping to win, she was just a CPC activist that Harper threw onto the ticket because he needed someone to run there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Though it's hard to think of the kind of "safe riding" where she'd be a good fit.  (Oshawa?)

If O'Toole wants to parachute her into a GTA riding, the dirty Shwa' isn't the best option. The NDP regularly comes close there, and the Liberals usually aren't too far behind. Colin Carrie knows how to win Oshawa because he's done it six times now, it would be a new riding for Lewis and could cause an upset.

If we're talking safe GTA seats, why not Thornhill? It's closer to where she lives, it's a safe seat, and the incumbent Peter Kent is now 77.

I realize Peter Kent isn't Jewish, but I reckon the Tories would rather find a Jewish candidate to replace him there.

[King of Kensington]

Given that Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre seem to be secure for the Liberals, I wonder if they'll make a serious play for Thornhill? 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Given that Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre seem to be secure for the Liberals, I wonder if they'll make a serious play for Thornhill? 

I think it's possible, especially if Kent goes. But Thornhill is a better riding for the Tories.

Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre are a bit more mixed. The Bathurst corridor is heavily Jewish and well-off, but once you get west of Allen Rd you hit lower income communities, predominantly Italian, Filipino, and Black. Thornhill is more broadly higher income and whiter, making it less of a natural LPC seat. Not just that, but Thornhill has also been strongly CPC on a provincial level, where the Israel issue has no relevance. But we shall see.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I realize Peter Kent isn't Jewish, but I reckon the Tories would rather find a Jewish candidate to replace him there.

True, a Jewish candidate gives you an instant advantage in the Yonge-Bathurst corridor. But it's a strong enough CPC riding that Lewis could still keep it. Certainly more likely to win there than elsewhere in York Region.

The problem for a black/Caribbean tory like Lewis is that there's no real right-leaning riding with a significant Caribbean population. I'm sure she could get a demographic bump in the likes of Scarb-Rouge and York South Weston, but those places are titanium LPC short of a landslide like 2018 provincial. Her (and my) native York Region has significant pockets of Chinese-Canadians (Richmond Hill and west Markham), South Asians (east Markham and increasingly Vaughan), Jews and Persians (Thornhill, Richmond Hill), Italians (Woodbridge), and WASPs (Aurora-Newmarket). No real Caribbean/Jamaica/general black bloc, however.

[King of Kensington]

Black Canadians are probably the loyalest Liberal demographic in the country.

[DC Al Fine]

Lewis has confirmed she is running in the next election. Seat tbd.

[adma]

Note that when I mentioned Etobicoke North earlier, it was with a bit of "knowing them" sarcasm directed at the Cons, rather than as a realistic target.

I realize Peter Kent isn't Jewish, but I reckon the Tories would rather find a Jewish candidate to replace him there.

True, a Jewish candidate gives you an instant advantage in the Yonge-Bathurst corridor. But it's a strong enough CPC riding that Lewis could still keep it. Certainly more likely to win there than elsewhere in York Region.

The problem for a black/Caribbean tory like Lewis is that there's no real right-leaning riding with a significant Caribbean population. I'm sure she could get a demographic bump in the likes of Scarb-Rouge and York South Weston, but those places are titanium LPC short of a landslide like 2018 provincial. Her (and my) native York Region has significant pockets of Chinese-Canadians (Richmond Hill and west Markham), South Asians (east Markham and increasingly Vaughan), Jews and Persians (Thornhill, Richmond Hill), Italians (Woodbridge), and WASPs (Aurora-Newmarket). No real Caribbean/Jamaica/general black bloc, however.

Also don't forget the York-Simcoe far north of Georgina and East Gwillimbury--the most ancestrally solid "Old Stock Canadian Conservative" part of the riding.  (Or for that matter, the pockets of well-heeled WASPiness in Old Markham and Whitchurch-Stouffville where Jane Philpott found most of her indy strength last year.)

And incidentally, I know Oshawa isn't the best option from a raw "safety" level; but it *is* incumbent, and the repeated ability to prevail over a rare-for-the-905 split-opposition circumstance has a way of generating its own infrastructural strength (remember: they nearly took it back provincially in 2018 after their spectacular upset by the NDP in 2014).  And as I pointed out re Kingsway College and SDA, there's other right-boosty undercurrents here, while Toronto's Afro/Caribbean diaspora has been palpably inching into Durham Region so it might not seem *that* much of a stretch.  And of course, none other than the national leader is next door, bordering the riding on two of its three landward sides.  So Oshawa might not be ideal if the  Cons want something absolutely rock solid; but it wouldn't be implausible from a firming-their-base standpoint...

[Hatman 🍁]

Black Canadians are probably the loyalest Liberal demographic in the country.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberals were a distant third among Blacks in the 2018 provincial election. They make up a big part of the Fordnation constituency, and the NDP may have done well as well among Blacks (they certainly elected a lot of Black MPPs, enough to form their own caucus!)

[King of Kensington]

2018 Ontario being the exception.  It looks like the NDP did well among Black voters.  Look at YSW poll by poll for example - Weston-Mount Dennis is orange vs. the Italian neighborhoods swung heavily to Ford; heavily Black areas in Rouge Park also went NDP it seemed, but for Mitzie Hunter in Guildwood).  Of course the PCs overperformed with Ford as well.

Federally meanwhile the top performing Liberal ridings and most heavily Black ridings overlap significantly.

[King of Kensington]

Some electoral districts outside of Atlantic Canada with a high "religious right" percentage (I used "other Christian" + Baptist + Pentecostal as a proxy measure).  2011 NHS data.

Ontario

Kitchener-Conestoga  26.6%
Elgin-Middlesex-London  24.5%
Chatham-Kent-Leamington  24.4%
Niagara West  24%
Perth-Wellington  23%
Haldimand-Norfolk  22.7%
Oxford  21%

Manitoba

Portage-Lisgar  47.5%
Provencher  41.6%

Saskatchewan

Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek  25.7%
Cypress Hills-Grasslands  22.2%

Alberta

Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner  30%
Lethbridge  29.4%
Peace River-Westlock  25.9%
Red Deer-Lacombe  23.3%
Red Deer-Mountain View  22.4%
Foothills  22.2%
Grande Prairie-Mackenzie  21.7%

British Columbia

Abbotsford  34.9%
Chilliwack-Hope  28.8%
Langley-Aldergrove  25%
North Okanagan-Shuswap  21.7%
Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies  21.2%
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon  20.6%

Result for social conservative candidates (votes cast and points, 1st ballot):

ONTARIO

Oxford  (1411) 70.23
Niagara West (1039)   65.92
Haldimand-Norfolk (726)  56.6
Perth-Wellington (813)  54.48
Kitchener-Conestoga (761)  51.11
Chatham-Kent-Leamington (718)  49.86
Elgin-Middlesex-London (943)  44.96

WEST

Cypress Hills-Grasslands SK (1267)  70.23
Chilliwack-Hope BC (1166)  69.12
Provencher MB (691) 68.3
Peace River-Westlock AB (1049)  65.58
Portage-Lisgar MB (692)  64.45
Lethbridge AB (1554)  63.89
Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek SK (691)  63.37
Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner AB (1314)  59.2
Grand Prairie-Mackenzie AB (1175) 58.55
Langley-Aldergove BC (1246)  58.26
Red Deer-Lacombe AB (1178)  55.43
Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon BC (732)  52.86
Abbotsford BC (929)  51.23
Red Deer-Mountain View AB (1404)  49.06
Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies BC (732) 47.67
North Okanagan-Shuswap BC (1035)  46.65
Foothills AB (2079)  41.02

[catographer]

Remarkable how Lewis led the popular vote on the second ballot. Imagining her as leader seems as unlikely and surprising as imaging Trump as the nominee in 2015 (no intention to compare the two at all).

[adma]

Remarkable how Lewis led the popular vote on the second ballot. Imagining her as leader seems as unlikely and surprising as imaging Trump as the nominee in 2015 (no intention to compare the two at all).

Again, it's a reflection of where the critical Conservative leadership-voting blocs exist in this day and age.  And for perspective's sake, there were fewer *total* first-round voters in the Ile de Montreal *at large* (and even that total was vestigially plumped within the "white Anglo establishment" electorate) than there were social conservative voters in the single riding of Foothills.

[Estrella]

Remarkable how Lewis led the popular vote on the second ballot. Imagining her as leader seems as unlikely and surprising as imaging Trump as the nominee in 2015 (no intention to compare the two at all).

Again, it's a reflection of where the critical Conservative leadership-voting blocs exist in this day and age.  And for perspective's sake, there were fewer *total* first-round voters in the Ile de Montreal *at large* (and even that total was vestigially plumped within the "white Anglo establishment" electorate) than there were social conservative voters in the single riding of Foothills.

This is bound to lead to some efforts (even if unsuccesful) to abolish the electoral college and move to one member-one vote, isn't it?

[brucejoel99]

Lewis has confirmed she is running in the next election. Seat tbd.

Perhaps Thornhill? It's a safe riding which she can be parachuted into, close to her home in Markham, & has a Tory MP in Peter Kent who's approaching his 80s.

[mileslunn]

What are people's thoughts on the Tories' choice?  And do you think O'Toole could actually beat Trudeau or have the Tories just handed Trudeau another win?

My view is MacKay was probably the better choice, but O'Toole not a bad one either.  He lacks charisma but that seems to be less of an issue with their voter pool than it is for Liberals.  He also is more moderate than Scheer or Harper which is a plus.  At same time him running a fairly right wing campaign despite being moderate does give Liberals room to attack.  And more importantly shows a long term problem that membership is well to right of general public meaning if he doesn't win, real risk next leader will be further right and party will remain in opposition until Liberals reach Wynne like approval ratings.

If an election were called today, I don't think O'Toole would stand a chance against Trudeau simply due to Trudeau handling pandemic reasonably well and people fearful Tories would be less generous with help.  But he is moderate and capable enough that if government somehow manages to survive to 2022 or later he might have a chance.

I think Lewis especially if she can improve her French has potential long term.  For MacKay, I think his chances of ever being leader are over.  Unfortunately the base will never accept someone with PC roots showing merger is really more an Alliance takeover than one of equals.  Although with many countries seeing greater polarization, perhaps this was inevitable.  However in Nova Scotia where well liked and Tories are still like old PCs, I think he could win Nova Scotia PC leadership someday and became premier of Nova Scotia.

[Hatman 🍁]

Lewis has confirmed she is running in the next election. Seat tbd.

Perhaps Thornhill? It's a safe riding which she can be parachuted into, close to her home in Markham, & has a Tory MP in Peter Kent who's approaching his 80s.

Again, she's not Jewish. Haldimand-Norfolk is a better fit. Lots of social conservatives, and it will be an open seat. She may have to move, but a small price to pay.

[DC Al Fine]

Lewis has confirmed she is running in the next election. Seat tbd.

Perhaps Thornhill? It's a safe riding which she can be parachuted into, close to her home in Markham, & has a Tory MP in Peter Kent who's approaching his 80s.

I mean the simplest option if O'Toole really wants her (or any star candidate from the GTA really) in parliament is to just parachute her into a safe seat. Lord knows the Tories have a surplus of those

What are people's thoughts on the Tories' choice?  And do you think O'Toole could actually beat Trudeau or have the Tories just handed Trudeau another win?

He's the best choice for party unity, which is a sometimes overlooked consideration when pundits look at the Tories. No one really seems to hate the guy.

I'm not convinced by the "Moderate = electable = MacKay is the best choice" logic at all. MacKay has shown himself seriously gaffe prone over the years and his fiscal conservative, social liberal orientation has not been an electoral powerhouse in the West.

Overall, I'd put O'Toole as the underdog against Trudeau, albeit with a reasonable chance to win. More importantly I think his fate will be decided mostly by things outside of his control; how is the economy in 2021/2022, how did the second wave of COVID and the government's response go, did Trudeau commit another major unforced error? Etc etc.

[DC Al Fine]

Lewis has confirmed she is running in the next election. Seat tbd.

Perhaps Thornhill? It's a safe riding which she can be parachuted into, close to her home in Markham, & has a Tory MP in Peter Kent who's approaching his 80s.

Again, she's not Jewish. Haldimand-Norfolk is a better fit. Lots of social conservatives, and it will be an open seat. She may have to move, but a small price to pay.

Yes that's a good thought. Really, anywhere in the Dutch Reformed belt in southern Ontario would be a great fit for her. Those folks broke hard for her in the leadership race.

[KaiserDave]

So O’Toole won

Good news for Justin

[King of Kensington]

I think O'Toole is definitely a step up from Scheer, and MacKay is overrated.  That being said getting to something like the Harper '08 map seems increasingly difficult given the liberal trends.

[mileslunn]

I think O'Toole is definitely a step up from Scheer, and MacKay is overrated.  That being said getting to something like the Harper '08 map seems increasingly difficult given the liberal trends.

I would say 150 seats is probably the ceiling for the Tories barring a major breakthrough in Quebec.  Only way I see that happening is if O'Toole gets Legault's endorsement which I think is very unlikely.  And we still don't yet know if pandemic just leads to temporary shift left or a permanent leftward shift.  With people losing jobs and needing government support, understandable parties on left are more appealing.  Once vaccine is developed and recovery is complete, will voters return to previous more centrist stance or permanently shift left like US did after Great Depression with FDR's New Deal.  Probably won't have answer to this for a while, but if former Tories probably have good shot in election after next (not next but one after) as Liberals will have been in power for 10 years thus people developing fatigue.  If latter, Tories could be out of office for a very long time and even outside possibility they go the way the Social Credit of Alberta and Union Nationale of Quebec do, that is die off.

[King of Kensington]

Yes that's a good thought. Really, anywhere in the Dutch Reformed belt in southern Ontario would be a great fit for her. Those folks broke hard for her in the leadership race.

Dutch Canadians

Ontario

Niagara West  17%
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex  15%
Oxford  15%
Haldimand-Norfolk  12%
Perth-Wellington  12%
Elgin-Middlesex-London  11%
Huron-Bruce  11%

British Columbia

Chilliwack-Hope  13%
Abbotsford  11%

[King of Kensington]

The suburbs and mid-sized cities of Ontario were a key pillar in the Harper strategy.  Here are the ridings where the Tories were within 10 points of winning last year (vote share and % margin of loss). 

Richmond Hill  43.06%  -0.42
Kitchener-Conestoga  39.03%  -0.71
King-Vaughan  43.2%  -1.79
Bay of Quinte  36.8%  -2.36
Niagara Centre  31.03%  -3.98
Peterborough-Kawartha  34.89%  -4.36
Newmarket-Aurora  37.83%  -5.27
Thunder Bay-Rainy River  29.33%  -5.99
Kanata-Carleton  36.48%  -6.57
Sault Ste. Marie  32.15%  -6.9
Oakville  39.08%  -7.2
Whitby  35.55%  -8.13
Markham-Stouffville  30.6% -8.31
St. Catharines  31.57%  -8.66
Cambridge  30.05%  -9.48