August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[OSR stands with Israel]

Come on O’Toole

[brucejoel99]

Derek Sloan got 4,864 points, which is less than the amount that either MacKay (5,573) or O'Toole (6,220) still need to win, so this'll be going to a final 3rd ballot.

In any event, an O'Toole victory is a horrific result for CPC unity & the party's chances of winning an election anytime soon. MacKay is gonna be denied the leadership despite winning 7 out of 10 provinces (including Ontario), plus the territories, & O'Toole is very likely to win despite only winning Alberta & Quebec, both of which are pretty irrelevant to whether the CPC can win another election.

Red Tories & centrist voters that'll actually decide the election are gonna abandon the CPC in droves & just hold their nose & vote for Trudeau again. The CPC is seriously about to vote in another Andrew Scheer. Never underestimate the ability of this party to shoot themselves in the foot.

So yeah, tonight cements another victory for the LPC, because the CPC won't be making any meaningful gains under O'Toole. Hell, Trudeau could take after his father & go majority-minority-majority, especially with the pandemic polling.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I’m so happy it looks like the party didn’t go back to the PC days and is sticking with Stephen Harper Tories as a party to emulate

[brucejoel99]

I’m so happy it looks like the party didn’t go back to the PC days and is sticking with Stephen Harper Tories as a party to emulate

Imagine looking at the 2019 election results & thinking that the CPC drifting further right is the best move for them.

[brucejoel99]

2nd Ballot:
Erin O'Toole - 11,903 points - 35.22%
Peter MacKay - 11,756 points - 34.78%
Leslyn Lewis - 10,140 points - 30.00%

3rd Ballot:
Erin O'Toole - 19,271.74 points - 57.02%
Peter MacKay - 14,528.26 points - 42.98%

Erin O'Toole has been elected to serve as the 3rd Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada & the Leader of the Official Opposition.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I’m so happy it looks like the party didn’t go back to the PC days and is sticking with Stephen Harper Tories as a party to emulate

Imagine looking at the 2019 election results & thinking that the CPC drifting further right is the best move for them.

Quebec is the problem and the problem is Canada knowtows to them fat too much

[brucejoel99]

Damn, literally if Lewis just spoke French a little bit better, she might've won. If I were her, then I'd be spending the next 4 years learning French, becoming an MP in a safe riding (O'Toole will probably wanna reward her anyway), & creating a profile for myself like Poilievre did so she can run to be Leader again in the next leadership race.

She definitely has a real future in the party.

[brucejoel99]

I’m so happy it looks like the party didn’t go back to the PC days and is sticking with Stephen Harper Tories as a party to emulate

Imagine looking at the 2019 election results & thinking that the CPC drifting further right is the best move for them.

Quebec is the problem and the problem is Canada knowtows to them fat too much

[Don Vito Corleone]

Good lord, O'Toole nearly got 60%! It almost makes me wonder what the future of the party is. Evidently, MacKay was too left-wing for the Tory grassroots (granted, his campaign didn't do him any favours). But aside from that, I think the real issue is that an O'Toole victory is doubling down on the grievance campaign they ran last time, and which I really cannot see going well next time.

[cp]

I’m so happy it looks like the party didn’t go back to the PC days and is sticking with Stephen Harper Tories as a party to emulate

Imagine looking at the 2019 election results & thinking that the CPC drifting further right is the best move for them.

Quebec is the problem and the problem is Canada knowtows to them fat too much

That's certainly a ... take.

Truth be told, the Cons didn't have any good options for appealing to Quebec this time around. Maybe in 5-10 years when some of Legault's lieutenants run federally and bring some authentic local support along with them?

In the mean time, this is probably the best news Trudeau could have hoped for.

[harpercanuck]

for those who say Erin can't beat trudeau, i can respect and understand that point of view. However to say this is a bad result for the tories is wrong. Peter mckay is the jeb bush of Canada. He has always been an electoral loser outside of his home riding.

Erin is an airforce veteran, a lawyer, ran a foundation to help our troops and is a proven winner in the all important GTA! This is a great man and I am proud to support Erin. Congrats to Erin on winning. Peter mckay winning would cause defections to PPC and ensure a loss. I'm glad that the party is back. Erin has a monumental task against him from the state run media, and the same forces against trump. Lets go Erin!

[brucejoel99]

for those who say Erin can't beat trudeau, i can respect and understand that point of view. However to say this is a bad result for the tories is wrong. Peter mckay is the jeb bush of Canada. He has always been an electoral loser outside of his home riding.

Erin is an airforce veteran, a lawyer, ran a foundation to help our troops and is a proven winner in the all important GTA! This is a great man and I am proud to support Erin. Congrats to Erin on winning. Peter mckay winning would cause defections to PPC and ensure a loss. I'm glad that the party is back. Erin has a monumental task against him from the state run media, and the same forces against trump. Lets go Erin!

Not being able to beat Trudeau is an inherently bad result for the Tories, though.

[King of Kensington]

for those who say Erin can't beat trudeau, i can respect and understand that point of view. However to say this is a bad result for the tories is wrong. Peter mckay is the jeb bush of Canada. He has always been an electoral loser outside of his home riding.

Erin is an airforce veteran, a lawyer, ran a foundation to help our troops and is a proven winner in the all important GTA! This is a great man and I am proud to support Erin. Congrats to Erin on winning. Peter mckay winning would cause defections to PPC and ensure a loss. I'm glad that the party is back. Erin has a monumental task against him from the state run media, and the same forces against trump. Lets go Erin!

His seat is "barely" GTA and very white and small-town Ontario culturally.

[brucejoel99]

Anyway, the victory speech from O'Toole wasn't bad. Perhaps he does indeed get that it's simply not enough to slag Trudeau, & that he'll need to present a credible alternative? I'm just not sure how you do that when so much of the party base is out of sync with a large majority of Canadians. What tonight showed is that the roots of social conservatism are still alive in the party, & with that in mind, Trudeau is probably very happy with this result.

[brucejoel99]

Damn, literally if Lewis just spoke French a little bit better, she might've won. If I were her, then I'd be spending the next 4 years learning French, becoming an MP in a safe riding (O'Toole will probably wanna reward her anyway), & creating a profile for myself like Poilievre did so she can run to be Leader again in the next leadership race.

She definitely has a real future in the party.

Follow-up because oh my god, Lewis actually won the *MOST* amount of votes on the 2nd ballot: Lewis 60,316, O'Toole 56,907, MacKay 54,165. If anything, that's the most interesting number tonight. I'm calling it now: she's the next CPC leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

for those who say Erin can't beat trudeau, i can respect and understand that point of view. However to say this is a bad result for the tories is wrong. Peter mckay is the jeb bush of Canada. He has always been an electoral loser outside of his home riding.

Erin is an airforce veteran, a lawyer, ran a foundation to help our troops and is a proven winner in the all important GTA! This is a great man and I am proud to support Erin. Congrats to Erin on winning. Peter mckay winning would cause defections to PPC and ensure a loss. I'm glad that the party is back. Erin has a monumental task against him from the state run media, and the same forces against trump. Lets go Erin!

His seat is "barely" GTA and very white and small-town Ontario culturally.

I'd call it exurban. But, yeah, not representative of the rest of the GTA.

[King of Kensington]

Watching the speech O'Toole seems to be a step up from Scheer who was too much of a "social conservative from the Prairies", and will likely play better in eastern Canada, delivering a more somewhat efficient vote rather than piling up huge pluralities in AB/SK.  But the country has shifted leftward and it's hard to see a Conservative path to victory at this point.  Large margins to reverse in the ridings of southern Ontario and not just the GTA.  

[King of Kensington]

Riding-level results:

https://cpcassets.conservative.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/24003224/6a2fd06b9518d0a.pdf

[EastAnglianLefty]

for those who say Erin can't beat trudeau, i can respect and understand that point of view. However to say this is a bad result for the tories is wrong. Peter mckay is the jeb bush of Canada. He has always been an electoral loser outside of his home riding.

Erin is an airforce veteran, a lawyer, ran a foundation to help our troops and is a proven winner in the all important GTA! This is a great man and I am proud to support Erin. Congrats to Erin on winning. Peter mckay winning would cause defections to PPC and ensure a loss. I'm glad that the party is back. Erin has a monumental task against him from the state run media, and the same forces against trump. Lets go Erin!

His seat is "barely" GTA and very white and small-town Ontario culturally.

His performances in the seat have not been particularly impressive at any election he's stood in, either.

[Benjamin Frank]

1.Erin O'Toole is clearly more intelligent than Andrew Scheer.  He is definitely a step up, and I don't think the Liberals can expect the same gaffes from O'Toole that came from Scheer that undermined the first half of the election campaign and allowed the Liberals to claim Scheer had a secret agenda.  

2.Erin O'Toole won by not criticizing Leslyn Lewis and Derrick Sloan and by seeking them out as allies.  In his speech he criticized both Jagmeet Singh and the NDP and the Bloc Quebecois (I'm not sure if he mentioned Yves Francois Blanchette.)  I could be reading too much into this, and he could change his mind, but in so far as he needs both the Bloc and the NDP to bring down the Liberals, I think this is an early indication he doesn't want an election right now.

3.In not criticizing Lewis and Sloan and in seeking them out as allies, the social conservatives will have expectations from him and he didn't even mention social conservative issues in his victory speech other than a mild boiler plate about wanting a Canada for everybody (including non-believers.)  I don't think it will be long before some social conservatives become disgruntled with him.

[Don Vito Corleone]

I would agree with that take (especially the last bit). Frankly, I would not be shocked in the least if O'Toole pulled a Patrick Brown and suddenly reverted back into his 2017 self (or further!). Even still, I have a little bit of difficulty picturing him actually winning an election, and I do think MacKay was their best leader electability wise. But yeah, definitely an improvement on Andrew Scheer.

[DC Al Fine]

3.In not criticizing Lewis and Sloan and in seeking them out as allies, the social conservatives will have expectations from him and he didn't even mention social conservative issues in his victory speech other than a mild boiler plate about wanting a Canada for everybody (including non-believers.)  I don't think it will be long before some social conservatives become disgruntled with him.

He clearly owes his leadership to the socons, so they will naturally expect some concessions. The question is how much. Small sample size, but for me and the other Lewis voters I know, this election was primarily about sending a message to people like Peter MacKay that they can't push us around or out of the party. For people thinking like that, I can't imagine expectations are that high... again, that's a small sample size. I don't know what other socon voters, especially Sloan ones are thinking.

Given our overall political standing, I don't care what O'Toole does campaign-wise so long as socons have a seat at the table, and he throws me a couple policy bones. He best start looking through the socon playbook, and find one or two relatively centre-friendly policies to use (maybe child benefits, or support for homeschooling in an age of COVID?)

[DC Al Fine]

Watching the speech O'Toole seems to be a step up from Scheer who was too much of a "social conservative from the Prairies", and will likely play better in eastern Canada, delivering a more somewhat efficient vote rather than piling up huge pluralities in AB/SK.  But the country has shifted leftward and it's hard to see a Conservative path to victory at this point.  Large margins to reverse in the ridings of southern Ontario and not just the GTA.  

Agreed. The benefit of O'Toole, is not that he's some GTA juggernaut, it's that he's culturally Anglo-Eastern, in a party that's gotten too West-centric. Independent of specific policy plays, the party spent way too much time last election  talking up issues for one region that was already in the bag.

Lord knows how alienating it would be if the party picked MacKay and he spent the whole campaign talking about Maritime issues and the lobster industry, but that's kind of how it felt as an Easterner last time

[adma]

for those who say Erin can't beat trudeau, i can respect and understand that point of view. However to say this is a bad result for the tories is wrong. Peter mckay is the jeb bush of Canada. He has always been an electoral loser outside of his home riding.

Erin is an airforce veteran, a lawyer, ran a foundation to help our troops and is a proven winner in the all important GTA! This is a great man and I am proud to support Erin. Congrats to Erin on winning. Peter mckay winning would cause defections to PPC and ensure a loss. I'm glad that the party is back. Erin has a monumental task against him from the state run media, and the same forces against trump. Lets go Erin!

His seat is "barely" GTA and very white and small-town Ontario culturally.

His performances in the seat have not been particularly impressive at any election he's stood in, either.

Considering what and where he represents and when he's represented it, O'Toole hasn't been *that* bad at assembling a coalition of voters--except in 2011-type circumstances, the outer GTA isn't exactly a place where one expects Prairie-scale solid-majority Conservative landslides.

But yes, Durham is more of a "rurban" riding, even if more urban with each redistribution--sort of an east-GTA version of Carleton relative to Ottawa or Flamborough-Glanbrook relative to Hamilton.  (Which'd make two consecutive rurban leaders for CPC, in fact)

One thing that's helped O'Toole get relatively cozy margins by urbanish Ontario standards is a weak local Liberal infrastructure--perhaps a carryover from Oshawa's Lib-NDP split--but growth (particularly in N Oshawa, judging from 2019 results) definitely favours the Libs, and I can picture a post-O'Toole Durham flipping much like Whitby did post-Flaherty, particularly if places like Port Perry/Scugog get distributed away

[adma]

Another weird thing to consider: O'Toole is a year and a month *younger* than Justin, though he looks much older.  (And one can definitely see the Cons spinning that to their anti-Justin/anti-Peter Pan advantage)