August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[mileslunn]

While little polling here are my thoughts on how things will go:

Sloan: He will fall off after first ballot, but wouldn't be surprised if he gets into double digits or does better than expected.  He is a lot like Brad Trost and Tanya Allen Granic.  Both seen as extreme but had a loyal following.  Social conservatives may be a big anchor on the party in terms of electability, but one should not underestimate how strong there.  Once he falls off, most of his support will go to Lewis and some to O'Toole so better he does better for those two.

Lewis: She has gained a lot of momentum and she is a social conservative but sort of seen as more acceptable to broader public so some talk she may come in second ahead of O'Toole.  I suspect most of her second choices if she comes in third to go to O'Toole while if she finishes ahead of O'Toole, she might actually become next leader of Tories.  Not likely but not impossible either.

O'Toole:  He needs to accomplish two things to win.  Remain ahead of Lewis and keep MacKay under 45% on first ballot.  He has far more room for growth than MacKay on subsequent ballots as he is more acceptable to the base than MacKay is.  Yes that is problematic in a general election, but in leadership race, base not swing voters decide results.

MacKay: He is acting confident so I am guessing he likes numbers.  Also since each riding is weighted equally that may work in MacKay's favour as he should do well in areas where Tory membership is low, i.e. more progressive ridings where people understand party needs to moderate to win.  Will do poorly in Prairies but since each riding weighted equally, Quebec and Ontario each on their own carry more weight.  Should win big in Atlantic Canada, Quebec is a wildcard, likely first in Ontario, tight in BC while in Prairies only in Manitoba could I see him coming first.  I think Saskatchewan will go for Lewis or O'Toole while Alberta for O'Toole.  Ideally his goal should be to win on first ballot, but if not at least get over 47% as he won't get a lot of second choices.

In many ways MacKay is for those who believe party needs to moderate to win, while O'Toole/Lewis are for those who believe party needs to remain on right and change message and tactics, not where it sits on political spectrum.  Sloan is your Trump wannabe.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/canadianpolling/status/1295947685619474434?s=21&fbclid=I...

[Poirot]

The Mainstreet poll has Mackay winning 51-49 on the third ballot but it is on points. In raw votes it's O'Toole leading 53%-47% on the third. Probably too much voter concentration in Alberta for O'Toole. There could be a reaction if points winner is not the same as raw vote winner, some tried to change the voting method but MacKay among others opposed it.

Maybe there is not enough lower ranked choice for O'toole to overtake Mackay. 54% said they had no third choice.

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/08/19/mackay-ahead-of-otoole-by-a-hair-in-tory-leadership-race-poll/

[Continential]

The Wexit or the People's Party could attack McKay and the "elites" for rigging the leadership elections if that happens.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/canadianpolling/status/1295947685619474434

Seems like a pretty strong poll, guess all we can do now is wait & see how the first ballot responses line up with the result: if MacKay doesn't hit 40, then he's in trouble.

[DC Al Fine]

The Mainstreet poll has Mackay winning 51-49 on the third ballot but it is on points. In raw votes it's O'Toole leading 53%-47% on the third. Probably too much voter concentration in Alberta for O'Toole. There could be a reaction if points winner is not the same as raw vote winner, some tried to change the voting method but MacKay among others opposed it.

Maybe there is not enough lower ranked choice for O'toole to overtake Mackay. 54% said they had no third choice.

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/08/19/mackay-ahead-of-otoole-by-a-hair-in-tory-leadership-race-poll/

Didn't Bernier get slightly more votes than Scheer? Or am I misremembering that?

[brucejoel99]

The Mainstreet poll has Mackay winning 51-49 on the third ballot but it is on points. In raw votes it's O'Toole leading 53%-47% on the third. Probably too much voter concentration in Alberta for O'Toole. There could be a reaction if points winner is not the same as raw vote winner, some tried to change the voting method but MacKay among others opposed it.

Maybe there is not enough lower ranked choice for O'toole to overtake Mackay. 54% said they had no third choice.

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/08/19/mackay-ahead-of-otoole-by-a-hair-in-tory-leadership-race-poll/

Didn't Bernier get slightly more votes than Scheer? Or am I misremembering that?

No, according to the raw voting figures, Scheer got 62,593 raw votes to Bernier's 55,544.

[Don Vito Corleone]

I'm quite surprised that poll has MacKay winning with only 41% support on the first ballot. I suppose the preferences aren't as bad for him as I thought, because I was thinking if he got below like 45% he would be DOA.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Mainstreet poll has Mackay winning 51-49 on the third ballot but it is on points. In raw votes it's O'Toole leading 53%-47% on the third. Probably too much voter concentration in Alberta for O'Toole. There could be a reaction if points winner is not the same as raw vote winner, some tried to change the voting method but MacKay among others opposed it.

Maybe there is not enough lower ranked choice for O'toole to overtake Mackay. 54% said they had no third choice.

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/08/19/mackay-ahead-of-otoole-by-a-hair-in-tory-leadership-race-poll/

Didn't Bernier get slightly more votes than Scheer? Or am I misremembering that?

You may be remembering how Doug Ford beat Christine Elliot due to points, despite losing the popular vote.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/BoyerMichel/status/1297651710345777153

https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1297680700699803653

[DC Al Fine]

Welp, off to bed then. I'll find out the result in the morning.

[brucejoel99]

"We're experiencing a higher-than-normal call volume. Your call is important to us & a ballot result will be given to you as soon as possible."

[Hash]

They had to tape ballots back together and refill some other ones because the envelope opening machine also doubled up as an paper eating machine, it seems. If only there were other ways to open envelopes without destroying its contents.

[brucejoel99]

How did they do an exit poll for a mail-in vote?

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1297715938318524418

[Poirot]

I imagine exit poll means contacting people after they sent in their vote or a poll in the last week.

If they say the poll is done for a campaign would that boost that candidate. People could be more likely to say yes I support you than maybe tell the truth.

[Kingpoleon]

How did they do an exit poll for a mail-in vote?

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1297715938318524418

Unless I’m missing a poll or something, wouldn’t Lewis coming in second be a very major upset?

[brucejoel99]

How did they do an exit poll for a mail-in vote?

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1297715938318524418

Unless I’m missing a poll or something, wouldn’t Lewis coming in second be a very major upset?

Not only would it be a very major upset, but it still wouldn't be as very major an upset as MacKay being in 3rd.

[brucejoel99]

It's now tomorrow in Newfoundland. Scheer has lasted another day as leader.

[brucejoel99]

Rumors have been all over the place:

https://twitter.com/spaikin/status/1297725898888683520

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/spaikin/status/1297743314049851403

[brucejoel99]

Erin O'Toole looking happy:

https://twitter.com/michellerempel/status/1297746730948075520

[brucejoel99]

Whoever wins, an early-morning victory speech is never a good omen. Just ask George McGovern.

[cp]

Ugh, this is agony. They know the result of the instant runoff. Why are they dragging it out announcing every province and each round?

[brucejoel99]

1st Ballot:
Peter MacKay - 11,328.55 points - 33.52%
Erin O'Toole - 10,681.40 points - 31.60%
Leslyn Lewis - 6,925.38 points - 20.49%
Derek Sloan - 4,864.67 points - 14.39%

[brucejoel99]

This is an absolutely dismal nightmare scenario for MacKay. Unless Sloan breaks entirely for Lewis, O'Toole has this.