August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[Continential]

A sixth Quebec MP for Mackay and 38 defeated candidates in the province also support him.

The MP criticised O'Toole's strategy of courting social conservatives in making his decision public and he's been a progressive conservative so Mackay.

Quebec Conservatives mostly seem scared of seeing social issues come up in the next election and be on the defensive.

By attacking O'Toole with wooing social conservative, it pushes him to have to explain he is not very social conservatives and disappoints those conservative voters and cuts part of the transfer of votes O'Toole would need to win.

A linguist rated the candidate's French language out of 10. Lewis 1/10, Sloan 2/10, Mackay 5/10, O'Toole 6/10.

I thought McKay couldn't speak French?

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1273774268518748162

[DC Al Fine]

A sixth Quebec MP for Mackay and 38 defeated candidates in the province also support him.

The MP criticised O'Toole's strategy of courting social conservatives in making his decision public and he's been a progressive conservative so Mackay.

Quebec Conservatives mostly seem scared of seeing social issues come up in the next election and be on the defensive.

By attacking O'Toole with wooing social conservative, it pushes him to have to explain he is not very social conservatives and disappoints those conservative voters and cuts part of the transfer of votes O'Toole would need to win.

A linguist rated the candidate's French language out of 10. Lewis 1/10, Sloan 2/10, Mackay 5/10, O'Toole 6/10.

Would you mind contextualizing that scale? E.g. How would Maxime Bernier's English rank on that scale?

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1273774268518748162

Another piece of evidence that social conservatism in Canada is really two closely related camps, not one single group. Lemieux and Trost gave us hints of this last time, but Lewis and Sloan are proving it in spades.

[DC Al Fine]

A sixth Quebec MP for Mackay and 38 defeated candidates in the province also support him.

The MP criticised O'Toole's strategy of courting social conservatives in making his decision public and he's been a progressive conservative so Mackay.

Quebec Conservatives mostly seem scared of seeing social issues come up in the next election and be on the defensive.

By attacking O'Toole with wooing social conservative, it pushes him to have to explain he is not very social conservatives and disappoints those conservative voters and cuts part of the transfer of votes O'Toole would need to win.

A linguist rated the candidate's French language out of 10. Lewis 1/10, Sloan 2/10, Mackay 5/10, O'Toole 6/10.

I thought McKay couldn't speak French?

Consensus from what I've read:

a) It's not that he couldn't speak it at all like Lewis, but his French was very poor, especially for someone who has been seen as a PM in waiting since like 2004.

b) He's improved quite a bit, but his French still isn't quite as good Scheer's or Harper's (no idea where they fit on Poirot's 1/10 scale)

[warandwar]

A sixth Quebec MP for Mackay and 38 defeated candidates in the province also support him.

The MP criticised O'Toole's strategy of courting social conservatives in making his decision public and he's been a progressive conservative so Mackay.

Quebec Conservatives mostly seem scared of seeing social issues come up in the next election and be on the defensive.

By attacking O'Toole with wooing social conservative, it pushes him to have to explain he is not very social conservatives and disappoints those conservative voters and cuts part of the transfer of votes O'Toole would need to win.

A linguist rated the candidate's French language out of 10. Lewis 1/10, Sloan 2/10, Mackay 5/10, O'Toole 6/10.

I thought McKay couldn't speak French?

Consensus from what I've read:

a) It's not that he couldn't speak it at all like Lewis, but his French was very poor, especially for someone who has been seen as a PM in waiting since like 2004.

b) He's improved quite a bit, but his French still isn't quite as good Scheer's or Harper's (no idea where they fit on Poirot's 1/10 scale)

Listening to it a bit, his vocabulary is okay, his pronouncian isn't great, but it's understandable. His main issue is that he's clearly just translating sentences in his head word for word from English, so it sounds very clunky.

[Poirot]

Mackay's French is a downgrade from previous leaders so not ideal for those wishing a perfectly fluent bilingual leader. His wife still needs to make him practice.

Would you mind contextualizing that scale? E.g. How would Maxime Bernier's English rank on that scale?

I don't know how good his English is so couldn't compare, if he has only pronunciation problems or his sentence make it hard to understand his ideas.

I found Mackay's score card for a 5 to compare: Communicates rather effectively even with his accent and pronunciation difficulties.  Erroers in syntax and vocabulary sometimes make it hard to understand his ideas.

The 6 for O'Toole was speak with an accent but his speech is fluid. He makes mistakes but generally his French is easy to understand. He can easily answer questions without looking at his notes.

It's subjective. For a 6 there was no big negative comments. Maybe it would give French language speakers 8 or 9 so for second language 6 or 7 is good considering pronunciation and inevitable mistakes sometimes.

[Poirot]

O'Toole's team is accusing Mackay's team of stealing internal data and videos.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/otoole-campaign-asks-police-to-investigate-mackays-campaign-for-allegedly-hacking-internal-data-videos

In its response Mackay's side is saying O'Toole should look at its volunteers.

O'Toole probably searched how the leaked video was given to media. So was there hacking, is there a mole on O'Toole's team ? Being Poirot I like investigations...

[cp]

O'Toole's team is accusing Mackay's team of stealing internal data and videos.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/otoole-campaign-asks-police-to-investigate-mackays-campaign-for-allegedly-hacking-internal-data-videos

In its response Mackay's side is saying O'Toole should look at its volunteers.

O'Toole probably searched how the leaked video was given to media. So was there hacking, is there a mole on O'Toole's team ? Being Poirot I like investigations...

Whatever the source, I think it's fair to call this a sign that Mackay's team is besting O'Toole's, and O'Toole knows it.

[Poirot]

O'Toole's team is accusing Mackay's team of stealing internal data and videos.

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/otoole-campaign-asks-police-to-investigate-mackays-campaign-for-allegedly-hacking-internal-data-videos

In its response Mackay's side is saying O'Toole should look at its volunteers.

O'Toole probably searched how the leaked video was given to media. So was there hacking, is there a mole on O'Toole's team ? Being Poirot I like investigations...

Whatever the source, I think it's fair to call this a sign that Mackay's team is besting O'Toole's, and O'Toole knows it.

A Calgary MP supporting O'Toole fires summer student. That student allegedly took the MP's login for Zoom, downloaded information, shared with the Mackay team, shared the login and password and met with a Mackay Alberta organizer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/greg-mclean-calgary-student-erin-otoole-peter-mackay-rcmp-theft-1.5623817

[Poirot]

There are some Conservative leadership questions in the last Leger weekly pandemic survey.

Who would make the best leader ? 70% don't know or refuse to answer. 18% Mackay, 5% O'Toole, 4% Lewis, 2% Sloan.
Among the Conservative voters in the poll, it's 47% don't know, 30% Mackay, 10% O'Toole, 8% Lewis, 5% Sloan.

Voting intentions in the poll are 39% Liberal, 28% Conservative, 19% New Democrat
with Mackay as leader it's 38-28-18
with O'Toole as leader it's 39-25-19
with Lewis as leader 40-23-20
with Sloan as leader 41-21-20

It asked if people would be more or less likely to consider voting Conservative if the leader adopted three policy positions:

A comprehensive plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to support climate change strategy would make 32% more likely and 11% less likely to consider voting

A plan to improve relations with Indigenous Peoples and further the efforts of Reconciliation and land claims would make 26% more likely and 13% less likely

A clear commitment not re-open the abortion issue or allow one if its MPs to introduce legislation to re-open the abortion issue would make 23% more likey and 13% less likely

I have often heard the party needs to put social issues behind to be more appealing but it looks like there is more potential by having a strong environmental policy but it doesn't look like it will happen.

[DC Al Fine]

Wife and I got our leadership ballots in the mail yesterday. We are voting for Lewis. I still need to figure out my downballot preferences.

It asked if people would be more or less likely to consider voting Conservative if the leader adopted three policy positions:

A comprehensive plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to support climate change strategy would make 32% more likely and 11% less likely to consider voting

A plan to improve relations with Indigenous Peoples and further the efforts of Reconciliation and land claims would make 26% more likely and 13% less likely

A clear commitment not re-open the abortion issue or allow one if its MPs to introduce legislation to re-open the abortion issue would make 23% more likey and 13% less likely

I have often heard the party needs to put social issues behind to be more appealing but it looks like there is more potential by having a strong environmental policy but it doesn't look like it will happen.

Polling found a similar result in the aftermath of the 2019 election.

It's interesting since there's been quite a bit of talk about the role social issues and socons should play in the party since the last election, there's been virtually none about the environment or First Nations issues, and the leadership candidates aren't proposing any course change (except I vaguely remember Lewis suggesting we should subsidize renewable energy more or something).

The Tories better hope that the voters act like it's 2008 and put climate aside in favour of economics, or else they'll have some serious issues in the next election.

[Poirot]

The current situation might shift discourse towards economics and public finances. That could be good for Conservatives but the Liberals could sell a plan for the economy and the environment, the two are linked.

Mackay was on a regional tour. In a Sherbrooke newspaper he was asked about enviromnental issues. He siad environment is very important for his party. The biggest contribution the country can make is deliver natyral gas to world markets. influence countries that use coal to use cleaner natural gas. I don't think that will convince voters who have environement has a top issue.

O'Toole had something like carbon pricing for industrial emitters and opponent seems to attack him of wanting to impose a carbon tax.

[Poirot]

The Conservative party has 269,469 members eligible to vote. That is about 10,000 more than in 2017.

I don't know if they have released specific numbers but they say the largest growth was in Nova Scotia, Quebec Newfoundland Labrador and Alberta. Alberta was already big so with one of the biggest growth must be huge now.

Biggest riding membership: Battle River–Crowfoot, Calgary Centre, Foothills, Cypress Hills–Grasslands,  Banff–Airdrie, Oxford, Calgary Signal Hill, Edmonton–Wetaskiwin, Lethbridge, Parry Sound–Muskoka, Red Deer–Mountain View, Langley–Aldergrove.
8 from Alberta, 2 Ontario, 1 Saskatchewan, 1 BC

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

[Continential]

I wonder after Lewis's loss in the leadership race, I wonder if the Conservatives are going to get her to run somewhere?

[Hatman 🍁]

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

Lots of minority ridings or ridings with low Conservative numbers to begin with (except Cumberland-Colchester, weird).

Good news for Lewis?

[adma]

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

Lots of minority ridings or ridings with low Conservative numbers to begin with (except Cumberland-Colchester, weird).

Good news for Lewis?

Relative to the last leadership race, the Ontario trio probably got a bump from the intervening "Ford Nation" provincial effect.

And Scarborough North is next door to where Lewis ran in 2015, though I'm not sure whether the demos are "her sort" except maybe at the Malvern end.  (But on the whole, I don't think there's *too* much pressure on her to run somewhere--despite the novelty of her race and gender, she hasn't exactly been a hey-look barnburner, even as a kingmaker.  Or relative to the NDP, she's more of a Martin Singh than a Jagmeet Singh.)

[MaxQue]

The Conservative party has 269,469 members eligible to vote. That is about 10,000 more than in 2017.

I don't know if they have released specific numbers but they say the largest growth was in Nova Scotia, Quebec Newfoundland Labrador and Alberta. Alberta was already big so with one of the biggest growth must be huge now.

Biggest riding membership: Battle River–Crowfoot, Calgary Centre, Foothills, Cypress Hills–Grasslands,  Banff–Airdrie, Oxford, Calgary Signal Hill, Edmonton–Wetaskiwin, Lethbridge, Parry Sound–Muskoka, Red Deer–Mountain View, Langley–Aldergrove.
8 from Alberta, 2 Ontario, 1 Saskatchewan, 1 BC

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

That Quebec list screams Italian.

[Poirot]

The Conservative party has 269,469 members eligible to vote. That is about 10,000 more than in 2017.

I don't know if they have released specific numbers but they say the largest growth was in Nova Scotia, Quebec Newfoundland Labrador and Alberta. Alberta was already big so with one of the biggest growth must be huge now.

Biggest riding membership: Battle River–Crowfoot, Calgary Centre, Foothills, Cypress Hills–Grasslands,  Banff–Airdrie, Oxford, Calgary Signal Hill, Edmonton–Wetaskiwin, Lethbridge, Parry Sound–Muskoka, Red Deer–Mountain View, Langley–Aldergrove.
8 from Alberta, 2 Ontario, 1 Saskatchewan, 1 BC

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

That Quebec list screams Italian.

Three Liberal ridings. Someone has been selling membership within ethnic communities I guess.

I was thinking Greek factor. Senator Housakos is said to be a good organizer. He supports O'Toole. He is from Laval and ran for Canadian Alliance in Laval West. There is a greek community in Parc Extension in Papineau. My Greek theory doesn't explain Saint-Leonard.

[brucejoel99]

The Conservative party has 269,469 members eligible to vote. That is about 10,000 more than in 2017.

Nice (though they should've limited it 269,420 for the double-nice).

[DC Al Fine]

The Conservative party has 269,469 members eligible to vote. That is about 10,000 more than in 2017.

I don't know if they have released specific numbers but they say the largest growth was in Nova Scotia, Quebec Newfoundland Labrador and Alberta. Alberta was already big so with one of the biggest growth must be huge now.

Biggest riding membership: Battle River–Crowfoot, Calgary Centre, Foothills, Cypress Hills–Grasslands,  Banff–Airdrie, Oxford, Calgary Signal Hill, Edmonton–Wetaskiwin, Lethbridge, Parry Sound–Muskoka, Red Deer–Mountain View, Langley–Aldergrove.
8 from Alberta, 2 Ontario, 1 Saskatchewan, 1 BC

Higest percent of membership growth:
Surrey—Newton (BC), then three from Ontario, Brampton East, Humber River–Black Creek, Scarborough North, then three from Quebec, Laval–Les Îles, Papineau, Saint-Léonard–Saint-Michel,  Labrador (NL), Avalon, (NL), Cumberland–Colchester (NS).

That Quebec list screams Italian.

Three Liberal ridings. Someone has been selling membership within ethnic communities I guess.

I was thinking Greek factor. Senator Housakos is said to be a good organizer. He supports O'Toole. He is from Laval and ran for Canadian Alliance in Laval West. There is a greek community in Parc Extension in Papineau. My Greek theory doesn't explain Saint-Leonard.

Yes, a lot of this stuff is better explained by who's been putting in legwork where and who has the support of some local fixer than anything ideological.

With that in mind, a Chinese friend of mine says she's seeing a lot of Sloan ads in Chinese-language media. I guess his people are trying to repeat the Brad Trost strategy.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Conservative party has 269,469 members eligible to vote. That is about 10,000 more than in 2017.

Nice (though they should've limited it 269,420 for the double-nice).

What is the significance of that number?

[Poirot]

Yes, a lot of this stuff is better explained by who's been putting in legwork where and who has the support of some local fixer than anything ideological.

With that in mind, a Chinese friend of mine says she's seeing a lot of Sloan ads in Chinese-language media. I guess his people are trying to repeat the Brad Trost strategy.

Trost won Brossard riding so maybe Sloan will do well with Chinese language strategy.
I found an onternet page with some vote totals from last leadership. It had Papineau and Saint-Léonard with around 50 votes each, so easier to show big percentage gain in new members.

[Poirot]

I wonder after Lewis's loss in the leadership race, I wonder if the Conservatives are going to get her to run somewhere?

I think yes. Don't know if there is a winnable riding where she is but she is doing well. There is an opinion piece, the author thinks she will finish second with Sloan's vote.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-leslyn-lewis-leadership-bid-kory-teneycke-1.5665584

Lewis can't attend a debate event due to medical reason. Mackay decides he will not attend. He didn't participate in a BC debate and another in Toronto I think. 

[DC Al Fine]

Just mailed in my ballot