August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #175 on: May 20, 2020, 07:38:24 PM »

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

That doesn't mean he won't or can't hold a snap election before 2023. It's totally possible that in=f the summer of 2021 the virus has receded and he's perceived to have handled the crisis really well, he'll call another election and get a decent majority.

I wouldn't worry about 2017 UK parallels mostly because Trudeau, for his faults, is still a better politician that Theresa May, and the Libs are a little more in tune with what Canadian voters wants compared to Tories with British voters

Agreed he will wait until it has receded so sometime next year.  As for more in tune, generally true, but he is prone to stupid mistakes that is why he lost his majority so while in good shape now that could change.  Also large deficit could be a problem too.  That being said I am not personally a Trudeau fan, but agree here he will probably try before the hard decisions have to be made but also wait until there is no risk of another wave.

Eh, every single government around the world is deficit spending & increasing their national debt right now (& understandably so), so I'd like to think that wouldn't be a huge issue for Trudeau.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #176 on: May 20, 2020, 08:22:09 PM »

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

That doesn't mean he won't or can't hold a snap election before 2023. It's totally possible that in=f the summer of 2021 the virus has receded and he's perceived to have handled the crisis really well, he'll call another election and get a decent majority.

I wouldn't worry about 2017 UK parallels mostly because Trudeau, for his faults, is still a better politician that Theresa May, and the Libs are a little more in tune with what Canadian voters wants compared to Tories with British voters

Agreed he will wait until it has receded so sometime next year.  As for more in tune, generally true, but he is prone to stupid mistakes that is why he lost his majority so while in good shape now that could change.  Also large deficit could be a problem too.  That being said I am not personally a Trudeau fan, but agree here he will probably try before the hard decisions have to be made but also wait until there is no risk of another wave.

Eh, every single government around the world is deficit spending & increasing their national debt right now (& understandably so), so I'd like to think that wouldn't be a huge issue for Trudeau.

Yeah, the deficit is a much longer term risk. In the short term the big risk is presiding over a very weak economy.

The tough thing about calling a snap election to take advantage of COVID goodwill (and this goes for all leaders, not just Trudeau), is that it's a very narrow window of opportunity to exploit. If he goes too early, it will be irresponsible and he'll get crucified for playing politics with a pandemic. If he goes too late the COVID goodwill will have worn off and he'll just be a normal incumbent presiding over a crap economy. It's very hard to hit that sweet spot where one still has goodwill but it wouldn't be seen as crazy to call a national election.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #177 on: May 21, 2020, 11:37:33 AM »

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

That doesn't mean he won't or can't hold a snap election before 2023. It's totally possible that in=f the summer of 2021 the virus has receded and he's perceived to have handled the crisis really well, he'll call another election and get a decent majority.

I wouldn't worry about 2017 UK parallels mostly because Trudeau, for his faults, is still a better politician that Theresa May, and the Libs are a little more in tune with what Canadian voters wants compared to Tories with British voters

Agreed he will wait until it has receded so sometime next year.  As for more in tune, generally true, but he is prone to stupid mistakes that is why he lost his majority so while in good shape now that could change.  Also large deficit could be a problem too.  That being said I am not personally a Trudeau fan, but agree here he will probably try before the hard decisions have to be made but also wait until there is no risk of another wave.

Agreed--Trudeau made some huge mistakes. My post was more based around how I think May was just a really, really bad politician (at least in terms of campaigning and electoral calculus), which is one of a few reasons why the 2017 UK election is hard to extrapolate to other elections in the English speaking political world
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Poirot
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« Reply #178 on: May 27, 2020, 11:19:04 AM »

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #179 on: May 27, 2020, 11:35:18 AM »

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #180 on: May 28, 2020, 12:52:10 PM »

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

If I redistribute the votes according to 2nd choice, I get for votes:
MacKay 51.0%, O'Toole 49.0%

If I try to simulate points by using regional samples and the same 2nd choice tables (and supposing every riding votes votes the same within a region), I get:
MacKay 50.5%, O'Toole 49.5% (in points 16925 to 16575 with 300 territories points not distributed).

This race is not MacKay's to lose.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #181 on: May 28, 2020, 01:31:37 PM »

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #182 on: May 28, 2020, 02:42:25 PM »

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.

Is likely, given the page about report by candidates, that it is O'Toole - > MacKay and Sloane and Lewis -> O'Toole.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #183 on: May 28, 2020, 02:48:56 PM »

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.

Is likely, given the page about report by candidates, that it is O'Toole - > MacKay and Sloane and Lewis -> O'Toole.

I'm not claiming MacKay is getting more Sloane & Lewis voters than O'Toole, but O'Toole is obviously not gonna get all of the Sloane & Lewis voters either. Hence "a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters" - MacKay is getting enough Sloane & Lewis voters to win.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #184 on: May 28, 2020, 03:10:16 PM »

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.

Is likely, given the page about report by candidates, that it is O'Toole - > MacKay and Sloane and Lewis -> O'Toole.

I'm not claiming MacKay is getting more Sloane & Lewis voters than O'Toole, but O'Toole is obviously not gonna get all of the Sloane & Lewis voters either. Hence "a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters" - MacKay is getting enough Sloane & Lewis voters to win.

From the crosstabs (assuming undecided split the same way as the decided ones), MacKay gets 37% of Sloane voters and 27% of Lewis voters, which is enough, but very barely.
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Poirot
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« Reply #185 on: May 28, 2020, 03:18:02 PM »

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

The second choice result is on the last page of the document. I think I have to read it by column so that would make Sloan's second choice: 57% Lewis, 17.9 O'Toole, 10.7% Mackay, 19.7% undecided and 3.7% no second choice.

Lewis voters give second choice: 38.2% O'Toole, 33.2% Sloane, 13.8% Mackay, 12% undecided, 2.7% no second choice
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #186 on: May 28, 2020, 04:36:06 PM »

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.

Is likely, given the page about report by candidates, that it is O'Toole - > MacKay and Sloane and Lewis -> O'Toole.

I'm not claiming MacKay is getting more Sloane & Lewis voters than O'Toole, but O'Toole is obviously not gonna get all of the Sloane & Lewis voters either. Hence "a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters" - MacKay is getting enough Sloane & Lewis voters to win.

From the crosstabs (assuming undecided split the same way as the decided ones), MacKay gets 37% of Sloane voters and 27% of Lewis voters, which is enough, but very barely.

This. The race is a tossup. Just eyeballing it, on those #'s MacKay needs ~25% of the Lewis/Sloan vote to win, which is definitely doable, but not guaranteed thanks to the er... problematic things he said about the kind of people who are voting for Lewis & Sloan.

Another issue to consider: Mainstreet polled the last race quite extensively. The biggest overperformers compared to the polls last time? Trost, Lemieux and Scheer. It may not happen this time, but it shows the point. If the (very difficult to poll) leadership polls are underpolling the right even a little bit, O'Toole should win.
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Poirot
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« Reply #187 on: June 02, 2020, 05:02:09 PM »

Two debates will be held in Toronto. June 17 in French and June 18 in English.

There is an article in The Hill Times on the possibility of a Fall election, it would be a good moment for the Liberals to win a majority. Pollster Nik Nanos "expects that once the money stops going into the system in the new year, and the government starts to introduce measures to cut programs and services, or to raise taxes, the government’s popularity will plummet."

"the Liberals have a legitimate rationale to call an election in the fall, considering the enormity of the crisis, and they can reasonably argue they need a fresh mandate."

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/06/01/a-fall-federal-election-is-a-real-possibility-say-pollsters/250478
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #188 on: June 02, 2020, 09:56:51 PM »

There is an article in The Hill Times on the possibility of a Fall election, it would be a good moment for the Liberals to win a majority. Pollster Nik Nanos "expects that once the money stops going into the system in the new year, and the government starts to introduce measures to cut programs and services, or to raise taxes, the government’s popularity will plummet."

"the Liberals have a legitimate rationale to call an election in the fall, considering the enormity of the crisis, and they can reasonably argue they need a fresh mandate."

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/06/01/a-fall-federal-election-is-a-real-possibility-say-pollsters/250478

The Liberals are experiencing a bump in the polls because they've been measured & responsible during the COVID-19 crisis. Calling a fall election wouldn't be measured or responsible amid the virus. Calling such an election so rapidly could (& very likely would) undo a lot of the bump they've received, particularly if several provinces are still trying to get the outbreaks under control. To put it simply, an early election at this point would be widely seen as opportunistic & frankly dangerously reckless too if the virus is still around.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #189 on: June 03, 2020, 07:36:52 AM »

There is an article in The Hill Times on the possibility of a Fall election, it would be a good moment for the Liberals to win a majority. Pollster Nik Nanos "expects that once the money stops going into the system in the new year, and the government starts to introduce measures to cut programs and services, or to raise taxes, the government’s popularity will plummet."

"the Liberals have a legitimate rationale to call an election in the fall, considering the enormity of the crisis, and they can reasonably argue they need a fresh mandate."

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/06/01/a-fall-federal-election-is-a-real-possibility-say-pollsters/250478

The Liberals are experiencing a bump in the polls because they've been measured & responsible during the COVID-19 crisis. Calling a fall election wouldn't be measured or responsible amid the virus. Calling such an election so rapidly could (& very likely would) undo a lot of the bump they've received, particularly if several provinces are still trying to get the outbreaks under control. To put it simply, an early election at this point would be widely seen as opportunistic & frankly dangerously reckless too if the virus is still around.

Yes, plus they will be wary in any case after what happened last time.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #190 on: June 12, 2020, 01:34:37 PM »

Erin O'Toole released a detailed platform https://erinotoole.ca/platform//.  No real controversial policies and mostly standard fare for Tories.  Not the strong moderation although a few sections show some, but no sign of shifting hard to right either.  His main problem is less policies but more tone like Take Back Canada.  I think that sounds too much like Make America Great Again and while fires up base, is a terrible slogan to use in a general election.  If he wins, he should keep his platform and perhaps make adjustments as things change (we live in a quickly changing world with COVID-19) but have a more positive idea.  In 2001 when BC Liberals had a detailed platform, it was Called New Era for BC so sort of a positive sounding one or same with Obama who despite US being in bad shape when he took office, he had a forward looking positive vision.
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« Reply #191 on: June 13, 2020, 02:46:10 PM »

Trudeau calling a fall election would give me Theresa May 2017 vibes. Very bad idea.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #192 on: June 13, 2020, 04:01:23 PM »

Another Mainstreet research poll.

Mackay 38.6%
O'Toole 31.2%
Lewis 9.9%
Sloane 6.4%
Undecided 13.9%

With decided voters only it's 44.8% Mackay, 36,2% O'Toole.
Mackay leads in Atlantic and Quebec so could score many points with fewer votes.

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CPCLeadership-22May2020.pdf

If MacKay is carrying Ontario, Quebec, & Atlantic Canada, all while still having a strong 2nd-choice contingent in Alberta, then this race is his to lose.

MacKay stroing 2nd choice contingent is not really real, it's most likely O'Toole voters (which won't ever be redistributed).

The linked poll literally shows that it's not "most likely O'Toole voters," as he'd still receive a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters (which will obviously need to be redistributed) as part of that 2nd-choice contingent.

Is likely, given the page about report by candidates, that it is O'Toole - > MacKay and Sloane and Lewis -> O'Toole.

I'm not claiming MacKay is getting more Sloane & Lewis voters than O'Toole, but O'Toole is obviously not gonna get all of the Sloane & Lewis voters either. Hence "a not-insignificant amount of early-round Sloane & Lewis voters" - MacKay is getting enough Sloane & Lewis voters to win.

From the crosstabs (assuming undecided split the same way as the decided ones), MacKay gets 37% of Sloane voters and 27% of Lewis voters, which is enough, but very barely.

This. The race is a tossup. Just eyeballing it, on those #'s MacKay needs ~25% of the Lewis/Sloan vote to win, which is definitely doable, but not guaranteed thanks to the er... problematic things he said about the kind of people who are voting for Lewis & Sloan.

Another issue to consider: Mainstreet polled the last race quite extensively. The biggest overperformers compared to the polls last time? Trost, Lemieux and Scheer. It may not happen this time, but it shows the point. If the (very difficult to poll) leadership polls are underpolling the right even a little bit, O'Toole should win.


Keep in mind though that the CPC leadership race weighs each riding equally. The thousands of CPC members in a rural Alberta riding will have the same say as the hundreds (if that) in Toronto-Danforth. This effectively means that ridings with a lower Conservative presence have a built-in advantage, generally advantaging more moderate candidates. Not to mention MacKay has a home field advantage in Atlantic Canada, which has relatively few CPC members, and the ridings usually have a smaller population. Meaning MacKay's votes will be especially efficient.

MacKay's lack of French is really his big weakness, because Quebec ridings are a goldmine for CPC candidates. Most Quebec ridings have very few CPC members, so their vote is ultra-efficient. O'Toole speaks "English politician" French, true, but MacKay's French is...yikes. Quebecers take their language seriously, Harper had to learn that the hard way. The fact that MacKay didn't bother to learn better French after 17 years in federal politics doesn't reflect well on him.
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« Reply #193 on: June 14, 2020, 10:04:34 PM »

Mario Dumont had an interview with O'Toole on his tv show. Mackay was also invited but he declined. Turning down a rare opportunity to be seen by the public could be playing it safe because not being confident enough in his French. It could hurt him if there is a looking bad moment.

Mackay has the support of 5 Quebec MPs, O'Toole has 1.

I've not seem much media coverage of the race. One time four women Mackay supporters accused O'Toole of not having a clear position on abortion. I read a news story on the policies for Quebec in the O'Toole platform.
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« Reply #194 on: June 15, 2020, 07:51:50 AM »

Mario Dumont had an interview with O'Toole on his tv show. Mackay was also invited but he declined. Turning down a rare opportunity to be seen by the public could be playing it safe because not being confident enough in his French. It could hurt him if there is a looking bad moment.

Mackay has the support of 5 Quebec MPs, O'Toole has 1.

I've not seem much media coverage of the race. One time four women Mackay supporters accused O'Toole of not having a clear position on abortion. I read a news story on the policies for Quebec in the O'Toole platform.
He still exists!
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« Reply #195 on: June 16, 2020, 05:39:07 PM »

Someone leaked a video of O'Toole courting social conservatives.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-otoole-social-conservative-leadership-1.5613399

It used to be other parties that did this to the Conservatives, link someone with conservative social views or groups to scare but now the party is doing it internally.
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« Reply #196 on: June 16, 2020, 06:27:02 PM »

Someone leaked a video of O'Toole courting social conservatives.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-otoole-social-conservative-leadership-1.5613399

It used to be other parties that did this to the Conservatives, link someone with conservative social views or groups to scare but now the party is doing it internally.

Is this going to hurt him at all? Because I don't have the impression that many party members would be opposed to this - after all, it's only a vague hint about being "concerned", O'Toole isn't going all GOP. Sure, there might be a few people who might agree but not want him as a leader because it could hurt the party, but if anyone thinks that way, they're probably a political analyst, not a card-carrying Tory.
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Estrella
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« Reply #197 on: June 16, 2020, 06:32:36 PM »

Also, this is pretty off-topic, but I couldn't help it because it's hilarious.



Sounds like a weirdo Pirate politician circa 2010: "How are we going to topple the Trudeau regime? With LIKES and ONLINE SUPPORT, of course!"
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #198 on: June 17, 2020, 05:27:31 AM »

Someone leaked a video of O'Toole courting social conservatives.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/erin-otoole-social-conservative-leadership-1.5613399

It used to be other parties that did this to the Conservatives, link someone with conservative social views or groups to scare but now the party is doing it internally.

Is this going to hurt him at all? Because I don't have the impression that many party members would be opposed to this - after all, it's only a vague hint about being "concerned", O'Toole isn't going all GOP. Sure, there might be a few people who might agree but not want him as a leader because it could hurt the party, but if anyone thinks that way, they're probably a political analyst, not a card-carrying Tory.

In the Tory leadership race? I think the sort of card carrying Tory who might be upset about this made up their minds for MacKay a long time ago. Honestly I'd be kind of annoyed if some politcal analyst types are acting surprised or upset by this. Getting Lewis and Sloan's preferences on the final ballot was part of O'Toole's path to victory since the field firmed up. What did they expect? For a politician not to try and win necessary votes Roll Eyes
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Poirot
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« Reply #199 on: June 18, 2020, 04:48:46 PM »

A sixth Quebec MP for Mackay and 38 defeated candidates in the province also support him.

The MP criticised O'Toole's strategy of courting social conservatives in making his decision public and he's been a progressive conservative so Mackay.

Quebec Conservatives mostly seem scared of seeing social issues come up in the next election and be on the defensive.

By attacking O'Toole with wooing social conservative, it pushes him to have to explain he is not very social conservatives and disappoints those conservative voters and cuts part of the transfer of votes O'Toole would need to win.

A linguist rated the candidate's French language out of 10. Lewis 1/10, Sloan 2/10, Mackay 5/10, O'Toole 6/10.
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