August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[King of Kensington]

True enough although if you look at Canada's largest province Ontario, Tories generally get in the 30s and more often than not finish behind the Liberals.  BC despite being good for the Conservatives in past seems to be drifting away with Interior still solidly for parties on right at provincial and federal level but Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island much less so than a decade ago.  That being said Quebec is more rural than Ontario and less diverse so the demographics actually in Quebec are more favourable for parties on right than they are in Ontario thus to your point.  Liberals have the benefit in Quebec in that they have the non-Franco vote locked up so gives them a much stronger starting point than the Tories there.

The Conservatives have very much become the party of the Prairies.

[brucejoel99]

Is campaigning even still going on right now amidst the coronavirus crisis?

[DC Al Fine]

Is campaigning even still going on right now amidst the coronavirus crisis?

No one seems to be doing public events, but I'm still getting email blasts and phone calls. MacKay did a virtual town hall a few days ago.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1242219871951294464

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1242219871951294464

Moving the vote forward would be weird. Either keep the date or push it back (hell, it's not like the government's falling anytime soon anyway).

[King of Kensington]

Idiotic.

https://twitter.com/atRachelGilmore/status/1243289158795354117

[brucejoel99]

Idiotic.

https://twitter.com/atRachelGilmore/status/1243289158795354117

This lunatic quest essentially confirms everything I've ever thought about MacKay. He looks good - sometimes, he even sounds good - but he has zero judgement.

[RogueBeaver]

Race resumes now and will end on August 21.

[King of Kensington]

This is the B listers and below, like last time. 

[brucejoel99]

Race resumes now and will end on August 21.

August feels like a solid lifetime away, even with the years of March & April finally behind us. What's more, that's a hell of a long time for the CPC to hold onto a political zombie as their leader.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1256050879406510080

https://twitter.com/alexboutilier/status/1256393381288333314

https://twitter.com/kkirkup/status/1256392316127981570

[mileslunn]

It seems Tories have a big problem in that what base wants is not what Canadian public wants so appeal to swing voters and lose leadership race or pander to base and win leadership but lose next election.  Their response to Liberal assault weapons ban perfect example of that.  Almost 80% of Canadians support it but Conservative membership does not thus putting them into a trap.  Regardless of what one thinks of the bill or timing, Liberals baited Tories on this and they took the bait.

[Poirot]

I thought this leadership race was not really a race but maybe there is a race.

A Conservative source told La Presse Mackay is in the lead but O'Toole has some momentum.
https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/202005/10/01-5273029-le-vent-est-il-en-train-de-tourner-chez-les-conservateurs.php

Jason Kenney's support for O'Toole gace some life to Anybody but Mackay. In Quebec in the last weeks, Carl Vallée who worked with Harper endorsed O'Toole. He was followed by Chicoutimi MP Richard Martel and former Cabinet Minister Christian Paradis.

Former MP Alupa Clarke is presiding O'Toole's Quebec campaign. Vincent Guzzo who was interested in running for leader supports O'Toole and also Senator Leo Housakos who is a good organizer.

Fundraisings numbers by March 31 show Mackay raising more money but O'Toole has more donors.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-fundraising-1.5554978?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar

[Poirot]

Mainstreet poll of 6624 party members.

Peter MacKay 40%
Erin O'Toole 34%
Leslyn Lewis 9%
Derek Sloan 5%

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/12/mackay-leads-cpc-leadership-race-but-otoole-popular-as-second-choice-of-lewis-sloan-backers-mainstreet-poll/

O'Toole has more second choice support. MacKay has a big lead in Atlantic provinces, other regions are close.

[Continential]

Mainstreet poll of 6624 party members.

Peter MacKay 40%
Erin O'Toole 34%
Leslyn Lewis 9%
Derek Sloan 5%

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/12/mackay-leads-cpc-leadership-race-but-otoole-popular-as-second-choice-of-lewis-sloan-backers-mainstreet-poll/

O'Toole has more second choice support. MacKay has a big lead in Atlantic provinces, other regions are close.

Why is Derek Sloan even running in the first place? I get that Lewis is a social conservative but why is Sloan even running?

[brucejoel99]

Mainstreet poll of 6624 party members.

Peter MacKay 40%
Erin O'Toole 34%
Leslyn Lewis 9%
Derek Sloan 5%

https://ipolitics.ca/2020/05/12/mackay-leads-cpc-leadership-race-but-otoole-popular-as-second-choice-of-lewis-sloan-backers-mainstreet-poll/

O'Toole has more second choice support. MacKay has a big lead in Atlantic provinces, other regions are close.

With these numbers, O'Toole would win if this were a popular vote race: MacKay couldn't win on the first ballot & Sloan/Lewis supporters would back O'Toole before MacKay as their 2nd choice.

Unfortunately, though, polls like this are useless since the voting is weighted on the per-riding basis. With MacKay having his support more efficiently distributed in the east (with support in Ontario &, critically, Atlantic Canada), if O'Toole is simply cleaning up in the West (especially Alberta), then MacKay could very well still win on the 1st ballot by sweeping smaller ridings in Eastern & Central Canada, even if O'Toole is raking in tens of thousands of more raw votes that just happen to be concentrated in a smaller number of ridings.

[mileslunn]

How do you think either two would perform in general election.

My view is neither can beat Trudeau, although I don't think Tories no matter who leader is can beat Liberals.  I think pandemic has pulled public enough to left that Tories will be unelectable for forseeable future so its more who can stop the party from becoming an Alberta/Saskatchewan rump so when time comes, which I think is at least a decade away, they can win.

MacKay is more centrist so should be a better choice, but weaker French thus harms his chances in Quebec than O'Toole.  And has a much weaker campaign team.  What are others thoughts?  Should party even try to win or should it be more staying relevant until political scene changes.

[brucejoel99]

How do you think either two would perform in general election.

...

What are others thoughts?  Should party even try to win or should it be more staying relevant until political scene changes.

MacKay or O'Toole obviously have a chance to upright the sinking ship that Scheer will leave them, but it's not gonna be easy. Mackay in particular probably thought that he could sail in & become PM sometime soon after the Trudeau show drew itself to a close; that's obviously gonna take longer than expected now on account of how much ground there is to recover. Whoever wins, they've got a job ahead of them because Trudeau has proven himself to be a very effective leader & I imagine even those who generally lean Conservative will think twice before deciding to chuck Trudeau out for an untested alternative in a time of crisis.

IMO, the next CPC leader will likely need 2 elections to come within striking distance of Trudeau. Both MacKay & O'Toole are producing lots of attack-ad material for the Liberals as they seek support from the right flank of the CPC membership. A 3rd Trudeau government would give the public a chance to forget the current partisan pandering & become tired of Trudeau.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

[brucejoel99]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

I thought the Comedy of Theresa May would have taught every anglosphere politician how horribly things like this can backfire in the modern era.

[brucejoel99]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

I thought the Comedy of Theresa May would have taught every anglosphere politician how horribly things like this can backfire in the modern era.

Eh, it can backfire but only if you f**k up the campaign itself as badly as May did. I'd hope Trudeau can't manage to f**k up that badly.

[mileslunn]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

[LabourJersey]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

That doesn't mean he won't or can't hold a snap election before 2023. It's totally possible that in=f the summer of 2021 the virus has receded and he's perceived to have handled the crisis really well, he'll call another election and get a decent majority.

I wouldn't worry about 2017 UK parallels mostly because Trudeau, for his faults, is still a better politician that Theresa May, and the Libs are a little more in tune with what Canadian voters wants compared to Tories with British voters

[mileslunn]

I'm just hoping in here (and will instantly hop out) to remind you guys that these Tories are not running in a primary that will immediately be followed by a general. Trudeau II can go until 2023, and that is a lot of time for things to change and polling numbers to go in any number of directions. Sure, Canadian minority govts are shorter, but the NDP would have to 'approve' the collapse of Trudeau II. This means that the NDP would need to see some reason to gain from a new election. So for better or worse, the next Tory probably has a lot of time ahead of him to lead the opposition.

After all, time will eventually rot everything.

Or Trudeau likes his poll numbers & - in the name of 'stability' or something like that - calls an election once we've generally returned to normal.

Until we have a vaccine or go several months without new cases I don't think Trudeau will do this.  Lets say he tries this in the Fall and a new wave emerges during the middle of the campaign, he would pay a big price for this.  Spanish flu over a century ago petered out but second wave was worse than first.  I think he may do this, but will wait until vaccine or treatment is developed.

That doesn't mean he won't or can't hold a snap election before 2023. It's totally possible that in=f the summer of 2021 the virus has receded and he's perceived to have handled the crisis really well, he'll call another election and get a decent majority.

I wouldn't worry about 2017 UK parallels mostly because Trudeau, for his faults, is still a better politician that Theresa May, and the Libs are a little more in tune with what Canadian voters wants compared to Tories with British voters

Agreed he will wait until it has receded so sometime next year.  As for more in tune, generally true, but he is prone to stupid mistakes that is why he lost his majority so while in good shape now that could change.  Also large deficit could be a problem too.  That being said I am not personally a Trudeau fan, but agree here he will probably try before the hard decisions have to be made but also wait until there is no risk of another wave.