August 2020 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election

[brucejoel99]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

This is still Stephen Harper's party. They'll do what they do.

[RogueBeaver]

Poilievre says he won't run for family reasons and won't be endorsing anyone yet.

[Intell]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

[brucejoel99]

Poilievre says he won't run for family reasons and won't be endorsing anyone yet.

WTF!?!

This is a huge surprise. Something big must've happened.

With him out of the way, though, it's now MacKay's to lose.

[Poirot]

This is starting to be no contest. Did Poilievre figure it would be hard to win, maybe after losing social conservative support he would have needed to make it possible ? Strange to drop out 3 days before his official launch.

[Poirot]

Pierre Paul-Hus and Luc Berthold endorse MacKay, and Poilievre will announce on Sunday.

Paul-Hus says MacKay's French is adequate to lead the party, that it's better than people expect.

I've heard many comments in the last weeks that his French was not very good. Maybe it was from people of other camps. I think many Quebec conservatives were hoping for someone perfectly bilingual.

[DC Al Fine]

Poilievre says he won't run for family reasons and won't be endorsing anyone yet.

WTF!?!

This is a huge surprise. Something big must've happened.

With him out of the way, though, it's now MacKay's to lose.

Yeah, signing Jenni Byrne and John Baird to not make a run doesn't make any sense. Maybe someone in another camp has something on him?

This is starting to be no contest. Did Poilievre figure it would be hard to win, maybe after losing social conservative support he would have needed to make it possible ? Strange to drop out 3 days before his official launch.

I found that whole stretch confusing. His path to victory seemed kind of narrow with MacKay shaping up to be a powerhouse, so it's odd that he tossed us so early. That 15% that voted Trost and Lemieux over Scheer last time would've come in handy.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/ChantalHbert/status/1220730012053180418

[Hatman 🍁]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

Running on a far right platform is a terrible way to win a majority. Maybe 30-35% of the country thinks that way, but that won't win them anything. They need suburbanites (and the minorities that live in them) to win. We are not Australia. We have lots of racists sure, but not enough of them for the Conservative to appease to them.

[MaxQue]

Michelle Rempel is really is a nasty anti-French piece of work, isn't she?

[Intell]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

Running on a far right platform is a terrible way to win a majority. Maybe 30-35% of the country thinks that way, but that won't win them anything. They need suburbanites (and the minorities that live in them) to win. We are not Australia. We have lots of racists sure, but not enough of them for the Conservative to appease to them.

The liberal party here got swings to the liberal party in lower-middle class/working class suburban areas and especially amongst minority voting groups, alongside massive swings amongst your small-town working class people, especially those that worked in mining industry.. 

I'm not saying run on a far-right platform, but a right-populist message that talks about about reducing immigration, stoping refugees and "excessive" climate action, that message could win.

[adma]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

Running on a far right platform is a terrible way to win a majority. Maybe 30-35% of the country thinks that way, but that won't win them anything. They need suburbanites (and the minorities that live in them) to win. We are not Australia. We have lots of racists sure, but not enough of them for the Conservative to appease to them.

The liberal party here got swings to the liberal party in lower-middle class/working class suburban areas and especially amongst minority voting groups, alongside massive swings amongst your small-town working class people, especially those that worked in mining industry.. 

I'm not saying run on a far-right platform, but a right-populist message that talks about about reducing immigration, stoping refugees and "excessive" climate action, that message could win.

Analogous to Ford Nation in Ontario, in fact (and to a certain extent, the federal Jason Kenney ethnoburban-outreach approach)

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1221100162271121410

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1221100162271121410

Honestly, I struggle to see the point of this. O'Toole represents largely the same constituency of voters as MacKay, but is less popular among them. I expect his campaign to focus on foreign policy issues but I simply don't think that's enough to get him the win, & it's not like he's not already guaranteed a Cabinet post in a MacKay government, so it doesn't seem as if there's really a need to up his profile. I don't know why he's trying.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1221433878524637185

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1221433878524637185

If Michael Chong led the Conservatives, then they could probably form a government, but they'd have to convince their base that the carbon tax (which was originally a conservative idea) isn't an evil communist plot.

Regardless, though, even if he doesn't win the leadership, I hope whoever wins (in all likelihood, MacKay) does indeed let Chong handle the party's environment/climate policy.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1221433878524637185

If Michael Chong led the Conservatives, then they could probably form a government, but they'd have to convince their base that the carbon tax (which was originally a conservative idea) isn't an evil communist plot.

Regardless, though, even if he doesn't win the leadership, I hope whoever wins (in all likelihood, MacKay) does indeed let Chong handle the party's environment/climate policy.

Elections aren't an exercise in checking candidates' relative positions on a one axis political spectrum. I like Chong. Love his efforts on parliamentary reform. But the man's lack of charisma makes Andrew Scheer look like Justin Trudeau.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

Running on a far right platform is a terrible way to win a majority. Maybe 30-35% of the country thinks that way, but that won't win them anything. They need suburbanites (and the minorities that live in them) to win. We are not Australia. We have lots of racists sure, but not enough of them for the Conservative to appease to them.

The liberal party here got swings to the liberal party in lower-middle class/working class suburban areas and especially amongst minority voting groups, alongside massive swings amongst your small-town working class people, especially those that worked in mining industry.. 

I'm not saying run on a far-right platform, but a right-populist message that talks about about reducing immigration, stoping refugees and "excessive" climate action, that message could win.

Analogous to Ford Nation in Ontario, in fact (and to a certain extent, the federal Jason Kenney ethnoburban-outreach approach)

Ford won due to "special circumstances". Anyone would've won that election. The only thing that could've stopped him would've been a competent NDP campaign.

[DL]

Yeah, if the Conservative strategy is to wait until Justin Trudeau gets to be as unpopular as Kathleen Wynne was in 2018 - they will be in opposition forever

[mileslunn]

Yeah, if the Conservative strategy is to wait until Justin Trudeau gets to be as unpopular as Kathleen Wynne was in 2018 - they will be in opposition forever

It will happen eventually but maybe not until 2030.  Party will face a tough slog to win no matter who they choose, but with right leader they might have a shot, but wrong one risk going backwards.

[adma]

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

Running on a far right platform is a terrible way to win a majority. Maybe 30-35% of the country thinks that way, but that won't win them anything. They need suburbanites (and the minorities that live in them) to win. We are not Australia. We have lots of racists sure, but not enough of them for the Conservative to appease to them.

The liberal party here got swings to the liberal party in lower-middle class/working class suburban areas and especially amongst minority voting groups, alongside massive swings amongst your small-town working class people, especially those that worked in mining industry.. 

I'm not saying run on a far-right platform, but a right-populist message that talks about about reducing immigration, stoping refugees and "excessive" climate action, that message could win.

Analogous to Ford Nation in Ontario, in fact (and to a certain extent, the federal Jason Kenney ethnoburban-outreach approach)

Ford won due to "special circumstances". Anyone would've won that election. The only thing that could've stopped him would've been a competent NDP campaign.

All the same, it was a measure of *where* he won, or where the PCs gained (or lost) most ground relative to previous elections...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Yeah, if the Conservative strategy is to wait until Justin Trudeau gets to be as unpopular as Kathleen Wynne was in 2018 - they will be in opposition forever

I think that Trudeau Jr. could be in power for as long as his dad was. Pierre Trudeau served from 1968 to 1984, and the provincial Liberals were in charge for 15 years. Justin Trudeau could still be in charge in the 2030's. Liberal governments in Canada last a very long time.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Go Erin O'Toole

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1221100162271121410

Honestly, I struggle to see the point of this. O'Toole represents largely the same constituency of voters as MacKay, but is less popular among them. I expect his campaign to focus on foreign policy issues but I simply don't think that's enough to get him the win, & it's not like he's not already guaranteed a Cabinet post in a MacKay government, so it doesn't seem as if there's really a need to up his profile. I don't know why he's trying.

I thought the same thing initially, but the way the field's shaken out, it's gone pretty well for him. There's a huge chunk of members who are to the right of MacKay but aren't voting for factional socon candidates.

He has a clear (if uphill) path to victory this time at least.

Just bang on about immigration in an economic manner, racialise islamic fear and win the election its easy.

That worked so well for them in 2015.

Harper was unpopular by 2015.

Running on a far right platform is a terrible way to win a majority. Maybe 30-35% of the country thinks that way, but that won't win them anything. They need suburbanites (and the minorities that live in them) to win. We are not Australia. We have lots of racists sure, but not enough of them for the Conservative to appease to them.

The liberal party here got swings to the liberal party in lower-middle class/working class suburban areas and especially amongst minority voting groups, alongside massive swings amongst your small-town working class people, especially those that worked in mining industry.. 

I'm not saying run on a far-right platform, but a right-populist message that talks about about reducing immigration, stoping refugees and "excessive" climate action, that message could win.

Analogous to Ford Nation in Ontario, in fact (and to a certain extent, the federal Jason Kenney ethnoburban-outreach approach)

Ford won due to "special circumstances". Anyone would've won that election. The only thing that could've stopped him would've been a competent NDP campaign.

All the same, it was a measure of *where* he won, or where the PCs gained (or lost) most ground relative to previous elections...

Agreed.

Given polling and election results in the rest of the Anglosphere, it's clear that going after the "upper left" quadrant can be a winning strategy, while going after "bottom rights" is a more dubious proposition.

Obviously the federal Canadian version of this will look different than Trump or BoJo (or even Ford), but if we can get a 'professional' leader pushing in that direction, it could be very effective.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, if the Conservative strategy is to wait until Justin Trudeau gets to be as unpopular as Kathleen Wynne was in 2018 - they will be in opposition forever

I think that Trudeau Jr. could be in power for as long as his dad was. Pierre Trudeau served from 1968 to 1984, and the provincial Liberals were in charge for 15 years. Justin Trudeau could still be in charge in the 2030's. Liberal governments in Canada last a very long time.

Historically yes, however today things move faster and also Liberal domination in past was due to dominating Quebec which they no longer have a lock on although Ontario and Atlantic Canada which used to be bellwethers now have a Liberal tilt.  At same time Western Canada which has outside a few pockets never been friendly to Liberals has grown.  So I think Liberal government lasting until 2030 while possible is unlikely.  I think question is do they make 2025 or not and that will depend on how they govern and also whom Tories chose.