More important Texas Gubernatorial Election

[OSR stands with Israel]

These two are easily the two most important elections in Texas in a long long time so which one was more important

I would say 1994 as whille 1978 was the first win since reconstruction, the GOP would have made the inroads they did in Texas in the 80s as much of it happened due to Reagan and not Clements but Bush's win in 1994 turned Texas from a Tossup state to a Titanium R state for the next 25 years and began that stunning statewide win streak as well . I think Bush deserves more credit for GOP dominance there then Clements deserves credit for the GOP inroads in the 1980s.

[MT Treasurer]

Bush's win in 1994 turned Texas from a Tossup state to a Titanium R state for the next 25 years

Yeah, clearly that’s all due to Bush and TX wasn’t trending strongly Republican before 1994.

[One Term Floridian]

Bush's win in 1994 turned Texas from a Tossup state to a Titanium R state for the next 25 years

Yeah, clearly that’s all due to Bush and TX wasn’t trending strongly Republican before 1994.

Not completely due to Bush, but definitely in large part to him and his campaigning style/team (Rove)

[MT Treasurer]

Bush's win in 1994 turned Texas from a Tossup state to a Titanium R state for the next 25 years

Yeah, clearly that’s all due to Bush and TX wasn’t trending strongly Republican before 1994.

Not completely due to Bush, but definitely in large part to him and his campaigning style/team (Rove)

TX PVI from 1976-1996:

1976: D+1
1980: R+4
1984: R+10
1988: R+5
1992: R+9 (Clinton was the first Democrat to win the presidency without TX despite Perot siphoning off a ton of votes from Bush)
1996: R+13

Obviously the state would swing strongly R in 2000/2004 with Bush himself being the nominee, but to say that TX was a pure Tossup without a decided R lean before 1994 would be wrong. One single politician/their campaigning team rarely cause such a dramatic shift in a state's voting patterns anyway.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bush's win in 1994 turned Texas from a Tossup state to a Titanium R state for the next 25 years

Yeah, clearly that’s all due to Bush and TX wasn’t trending strongly Republican before 1994.

Not completely due to Bush, but definitely in large part to him and his campaigning style/team (Rove)

TX PVI from 1976-1996:

1976: D+1
1980: R+4
1984: R+10
1988: R+5
1992: R+9 (Clinton was the first Democrat to win the presidency without TX despite Perot siphoning off a ton of votes from Bush)
1996: R+13

Obviously the state would swing strongly R in 2000/2004 with Bush himself being the nominee, but to say that TX was a pure Tossup without a decided R lean before 1994 would be wrong. One single politician/their campaigning team rarely cause such a dramatic shift in a state's voting patterns anyway.

I am mainly talking about statewide downballot races other than Presidential races and the fact is Democrats were routinely winning those races from 1978-1994 and since 94 haven’t won a single one .


Even Democrats in Wyoming , Idaho , Oklahoma and Alabama have won statewide races since then

[MT Treasurer]

I am mainly talking about statewide downballot races other than Presidential races and the fact is Democrats were routinely winning those races from 1978-1994 and since 94 haven’t won a single one .

Even Democrats in Wyoming , Idaho , Oklahoma and Alabama have won statewide races since then

I see. Yeah, Bush and his team definitely deserve some credit for that, although there were definitely other factors at play as well. It’s generally harder for the opposition party to win a large state where the dominant party's coalition is fairly broad and much easier to localize/retail politic your way to victory in WY, MT, VT, etc.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I am mainly talking about statewide downballot races other than Presidential races and the fact is Democrats were routinely winning those races from 1978-1994 and since 94 haven’t won a single one .

Even Democrats in Wyoming , Idaho , Oklahoma and Alabama have won statewide races since then

I see. Yeah, Bush and his team definitely deserve some credit for that, although there were definitely other factors at play as well. It’s generally harder for the opposition party to win a large state where the dominant party's coalition is fairly broad and much easier to localize/retail politic your way to victory in WY, MT, VT, etc.

I would agree with this. Obviously the AG race last year was exceptionally closer than the gubernatorial race, but all else equal, I would expect an open governor’s race to flip Dem before an open downballot race like AG. Particularly since trends start upballot.

I qualify that statement though by saying Democrats could defeat Ken Paxton in 2022 if they invest their resources in that race and get a local District Attorney or something to run against him.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I am mainly talking about statewide downballot races other than Presidential races and the fact is Democrats were routinely winning those races from 1978-1994 and since 94 haven’t won a single one .

Even Democrats in Wyoming , Idaho , Oklahoma and Alabama have won statewide races since then

I see. Yeah, Bush and his team definitely deserve some credit for that, although there were definitely other factors at play as well. It’s generally harder for the opposition party to win a large state where the dominant party's coalition is fairly broad and much easier to localize/retail politic your way to victory in WY, MT, VT, etc.

I would agree with this. Obviously the AG race last year was exceptionally closer than the gubernatorial race, but all else equal, I would expect an open governor’s race to flip Dem before an open downballot race like AG. Particularly since trends start upballot.

I qualify that statement though by saying Democrats could defeat Ken Paxton in 2022 if they invest their resources in that race and get a local District Attorney or something to run against him.

Thats only true for Presidential but not at state level. California from 1986-2010, Georgia in the 90s, Wisconsin in the 80s and 90s, WV since 2012. In each one of these instances, the party which benefited from the trends made gains in the down-ballot races first before winning the Gubernatorial race.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I guess Kansas, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Colorado (2006-2018), Maryland would all disagree

[Xing]

1994, but 2022 might be even more important.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I guess Kansas, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Colorado (2006-2018), Maryland would all disagree

Montana is not trending Democratic and Maryland is not trending Republican. Montana is just not as Republican at the state level as it is at the Presidential Level and Maryland had a very unpopular Dem Governor. So you can have an example for both, and for Texas I see them winning those down-ballot races before the Gubernatorial races which at this point I dont see them winning until 2030(two terms of George P after Abbott) unless the GOP own goals itself in the primaries(which given their history it is always a possibility). I think if polls show Patrick beating Bush then Abbott will run for a third term to stop that from happening.


The reason for this is actually simple , since those lower state level offices are not as visible to the public as the Governor one, people are more likely to vote based on partisanship in those than at the top of the ticket and the TX GOP has a very strong bench and very competent leaders too. So it makes sense actually for trends to take place in the bottom before the top

[OSR stands with Israel]

1994, but 2022 might be even more important.

No 1994 will be very hard to top given how thoroughly the TX GOP dominated the state in the 24 years after that. Even the CA Dems have had losses since 1998, so the only one that maybe compares in any state is NY Dems since 2006 and they still have 10 years to go to match the TX GOP.

[Xing]

1994, but 2022 might be even more important.

No 1994 will be very hard to top given how thoroughly the TX GOP dominated the state in the 24 years after that. Even the CA Dems have had losses since 1998, so the only one that maybe compares in any state is NY Dems since 2006 and they still have 10 years to go to match the TX GOP.

It could be important in a different way, as it could represent a turning point in the state.

[OSR stands with Israel]

1994, but 2022 might be even more important.

No 1994 will be very hard to top given how thoroughly the TX GOP dominated the state in the 24 years after that. Even the CA Dems have had losses since 1998, so the only one that maybe compares in any state is NY Dems since 2006 and they still have 10 years to go to match the TX GOP.

It could be important in a different way, as it could represent a turning point in the state.

94 was a turning point too , just look at all the Dems who won in TX statewide before that and since then.


2022 in a Trump midterm would basically be like 1978 where Dems just like the GOP in 1978 make a breakthrough and wins a statewide race. So if you think 2022>1994 then 1978>1994 as well and I dont that 1978>1994. 

[Xing]

1994, but 2022 might be even more important.

No 1994 will be very hard to top given how thoroughly the TX GOP dominated the state in the 24 years after that. Even the CA Dems have had losses since 1998, so the only one that maybe compares in any state is NY Dems since 2006 and they still have 10 years to go to match the TX GOP.

It could be important in a different way, as it could represent a turning point in the state.

94 was a turning point too , just look at all the Dems who won in TX statewide before that and since then.


2022 in a Trump midterm would basically be like 1978 where Dems just like the GOP in 1978 make a breakthrough and wins a statewide race. So if you think 2022>1994 then 1978>1994 as well and I dont that 1978>1994. 

It wouldn't be the same thing, since 1978 was just a breakthrough (it flipped back in 1982) and didn't represent the same kind of enormous shift that 2022 might.

[Indy Texas]

1994 -- Bush helped migrate rural whites into the Texas Republican Party for good, he had a productive one-and-a-half terms, and his 1998 landslide reelection helped narrowly drag Rick Perry over the finish line in the lieutenant governor race, allowing the GOP to hold the governor's mansion after he became president and solidify the GOP's gains.

Clements, by comparison, really didn't have much to show for his time in office. The legislature was dominated by the Democratic Party, even if many of them were quite conservative. His personal style was very much that of an "outsider businessman" who wrongfully assumed he could simply enact his agenda by diktat (not unlike Bruce Rauner and other unsuccessful CEO-politicians). He lost reelection in 1982 and managed to get back into office in 1986 only to have his reputation incinerated after he was implicated in a bribery scandal involving his alma mater Southern Methodist University.

[sg0508]

1994, but 2022 might be even more important.

Why? Abbott is likely going to win another term if he runs.

[lfromnj]

1994, but 2022 might be even more important.

Why? Abbott is likely going to win another term if he runs.

Why do people think that governors popularities will last forever, Rick Perry barely outran Mccain in 2010 despite it going from the biggest D wave in in a few decades to the largest R wave in a few decades. Sure Rick perry did do  worse in the rurals but its not like Bill White collapsed from his percentage margins from Obamas numbers in the urban counties. He generally did like 2-3 points worse in the urban areas.

[darklordoftech]

The one that led to the Presidency that would shape the military, judicial, and educational policy of 21st-century America.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott hopefully, is gone by 2022, and Beto is likely to run for Gov, if Texas turns blue in 2020; resulting, in any redistricting that Abbott applied, be reversed by a future Dem Gov Beto. Only the far right and Fox news destroyed his Prez campaign

1994, only because I see Beto as a younge Bush W, whom seem reasonable and a change agent

[brucejoel99]

1994 but because of who won it, rather than any underlying dynamics therein.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto is gonna run for Gov against Abbott or any R, if the Dems win in 2020. Beto is similar to Bush W, against Ann Richards