UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

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This is absolutely horrific and my thoughts are with his family, his friends, and his constituents. I have to say that it's kind of weird that I was probably one of the only people outside the UK who knew who David Amess was and now his murder is being covered on the international news. This reminds me of the murder of Jo Cox back in 2016, but also the shooting of Gabby Giffords in the U.S. in 2011. I'm worried that there will be a push, to make politicians less accessible to the people for safety reasons, but I'm even more worried that I probably would have to agree.

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Amess o/c was one of the longest-serving MPs in the Commons at the time of his death - I'm not sure exactly why, but that somehow makes this feel even stranger.

It really does. I just realized that he was an MP for more than half of his life.


The police have just declared the stabbing a terrorist incident with a "potential motivation linked to Islamist extremism". The suspect is a 25-year-old British national of Somali heritage.

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Time for another Back to Basics campaign! What could possibly go wrong?

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A rather bizarre speech this morning from bojo at the CBI where he among other things did an impersonation of a combustion engine, lost his place in his speech and then talked about Peppa Pig world.

The problem is much like Brown in 2009 and to a degree Keir earlier this year once things start going wrong everyone is looking for more evidence to reaffirm it…

The speech has been called 'shambolic'. From whom you may ask? Not from Labour, not from Johnson's enemies in the Tory Party, but from a Number Ten source.

I have to say, of all the things about that speech (which I only saw a two-minute clip of) the thing that struck me the most wasn't what he said but how he said it. His eyes looked dead, when he was joking around, it looked as if his heart wasn't in it. He's usually an optimist, but the difficult couple of weeks he's had is getting to him and it's showing. I'm used to him saying stupid things, but I'm not used to him looking so down.

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Sunak already has turned into Gordon Brown to Johnson's Tony Blair according to reports.

Has he been going to Johnson's office asking, "when are you going to leave and let me be Prime Minister?" Because apparently that's something Gordon would do when he was Chancellor.

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I just have to say, yesterday was the 2nd anniversary of that general election that gave Boris Johnson his 80 seat majority and the night we knew Brexit would happen. It's surprising, though not exactly shocking, to see just how much Boris's political fortunes have changed since that night.

I will never forget watching Blyth Valley come in as the first Conservative gain of the night, as that was the moment we knew the exit poll was correct, and the look on the Labour candidate's face telling that she knew it was all over, not just for herself but for her party's hopes.

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It really seems like the Lib Dems are moving to the right, which could mean that they start doing better in Tory areas and recede a bit in London. Their share of the vote may not go up very much but they may gain ground from Labour and lose ground to the Conservatives, sort of a reverse of the trend that has taken place since 2001. I don't know if it means they start winning seats in the West Country like Torbay again, many of those seats are probably too far gone but they're probably the odds-on favorite to win back seats like St. Ives.

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New reports in the papers of a pizza party at Number 10 on 15 May 2020 now, when outdoor socialising was based for any more than two people, with Boris popping into this.

It was only a matter of time before more of these revelations came out. I would be shocked if this type of behavior wasn't even worse than previously reported.

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All ballots have arrived at the count, and reports are that the piles are looking pretty even between the Tory candidate and the Lib Dem candidate. The Tories in the area aren't optimistic and the Green Party candidate thinks the Lib Dems have taken the seat.

EDIT: Lib Dems say they have taken it by a "four figure" margin. That would be huge.

EDIT: Labour says Lib Dem gain as well, on a swing of about 30%.

EDIT: Declaration is imminent. Turnout is 46.3%.

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North Shropshire
LD Gain from CON  


Liberal Democrats Helen Morgan        17,957   47.1%   +37.1%
Conservative  Neil Shastri-Hurst        12,032    31.6%   -31.1%
Labour                      Ben Wood         3,686     9.7%    -12.4%
Green                    Duncan Kerr        1,738      4.6%    +1.4%
Reform UK         Kirsty Walmsley       1,427       3.7%    +3.7%
Majority of 5,925

Swing from CON to LD: 34.1%

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I don't really have an opportunity to watch, how did PMQ's go for Johnson and Rayner today? I did hear that Starmer tested positive again.

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It was mostly notable for the truly incredible number of lies Johnson managed to trot out in such a short space of time.

I'm assuming that's every PMQ's though I could see why this one he'd trot out even more.

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Douglas Ross, the leader of the Scottish Conservative Party has formally called on Johnson to resign, as has former leader Ruth Davidson. Several Conservative MSP's have called on Johnson to resign as well.

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The Tories in London will be particularly worried as councillors are generally the only people who they can get to canvass- it would be interesting to look at the membership data in some areas that were once areas of strength e.g. Chiswick, Richmond, Putney, Croydon.

I’m unsure re the new boundaries but a good General election for labour could be an absolute bloodbath for the Conservatives in outer London.

If you enter that YouGov poll into Electoral Calculus and select the new boundaries, then Labour gains in London compared with Electoral Calculus's notionals are:

Beckenham
Chingford & Woodford Green
Croydon East
Croydon South
Eltham & Chislehurst
Finchley & Muswell Hill
Fulham & Chelsea West
Hendon & Golders Green
High Barnet & Mill Hill
Stanmore & Edgware
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
Westminster & Chelsea East

Oh, and the Lib Dems win Wimbledon and both Sutton seats.  So yes, pretty bad for the Tories in outer London (seven seats left, mostly on the Kent and Essex fringes) and a complete wipeout in inner London.

(Full figures are Lab 313, Con 234, SNP 55, LD 24, Plaid 2, Green 1, Other 1 (Exmouth), so Labour just short of a majority.  Take with a pinch of salt.)

So that Iain Duncan Smith defeated, Thatcher's seat going back to Labour, and Boris Johson losing his own seat. Starting to look like he'll stand down as an MP (though he probably wouldn't if he wasn't going to been Prime Minister anyway).

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Lots of criticism about the pre-DoE funeral party. Does anyone doubt that the DoE himself would have approved of such a thing? Then again the DoE had a stronger sense of humour than most.

Maybe not while his wife was all alone.

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Looks like some on the left of Labour aren't happy that Starmer is starting to do well.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-60054968

The left-wing Momentum campaign group said Mr Wakeford "should be nowhere near the Labour Party".

"Wakeford should be booted out of Labour and a by-election called immediately," a spokesman added. "Labour must back a candidate that will stand up for the people of Bury South and against this Tory government."

I mean I know there is precedent for a by-election in cases of defection, but my God.

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I think his defection will help Labour - as long as he doesn't have a butler.

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It's been touched upon briefly with some radio pieces with former defecting MPs (Lord Howarth apparently played a role in helping with this one- he too defected from the Tories to Labour) but I'm not sure anyone has really covered how big a change this is.

For MPs their staff are paid for by the taxpayer but are largely working for MPs they agree with politically; so you face having to re-hire an entirely new team. You lose your entire network & the support you have from your own intake (MPs like children are often friends with those elected who join in the same year) and you lose most of the influence or alliances you have with the wider political movement.

It is for this reason why it's rarer for Labour politicians to defect; we hate our movement, but it is our movement which dominates your life in a way that Conservative politics doesn't. The Labour Party is a chore you endure, the Conservative Party is a club you enjoy. If you compare the speeches from the departing Labour MPs who joined TIG with the departing Tories this is very clear- it was a genuine emotional detachment. Despite the Dennis Healey quip the Labour Party really is a socialist Sunday school.

Anyway it's a big move and a big decision; and well his seat certainly played a role it wasn't as grubby as previous ones (which were done for Government jobs & safe seats after MPs faced de-selection)

It can also be very difficult if you have a butler...

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It's been touched upon briefly with some radio pieces with former defecting MPs (Lord Howarth apparently played a role in helping with this one- he too defected from the Tories to Labour) but I'm not sure anyone has really covered how big a change this is.

For MPs their staff are paid for by the taxpayer but are largely working for MPs they agree with politically; so you face having to re-hire an entirely new team. You lose your entire network & the support you have from your own intake (MPs like children are often friends with those elected who join in the same year) and you lose most of the influence or alliances you have with the wider political movement.

It is for this reason why it's rarer for Labour politicians to defect; we hate our movement, but it is our movement which dominates your life in a way that Conservative politics doesn't. The Labour Party is a chore you endure, the Conservative Party is a club you enjoy. If you compare the speeches from the departing Labour MPs who joined TIG with the departing Tories this is very clear- it was a genuine emotional detachment. Despite the Dennis Healey quip the Labour Party really is a socialist Sunday school.

Anyway it's a big move and a big decision; and well his seat certainly played a role it wasn't as grubby as previous ones (which were done for Government jobs & safe seats after MPs faced de-selection)

It can also be very difficult if you have a butler...

No - you just have to start calling him Comrade Butler.

It's okay for Labour MPs to have butlers. This meme was brought to you by Shaun Woodward.

Yeah, how it did happen again? I think he said he had a butler and then he said he didn't have a butler and then the butler turned up a few days before the election blowing up red balloons!

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Everyone calm down, Boris may not have known if it was his birthday or whether or not it was a party. Even if he knew one, it doesn't mean he knew the other and even if he knew both, he may not have known the two were connected. We need to wait for Sue Gray to tell Boris when he realized it was a birthday party before we pass judgement on this.

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Christ, Jacob Rees-Mogg is going to be party leader at some point in the near-ish future, isn't he?  If anyone thinks that's a totally ridiculous notion, I direct your attention to the current one.

I certainly hope so...

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsForUK/status/1486353871060586499?s=20

I never thought I'd hear someone praise Blair and Lenin in the same sentence.

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Today is the 30th anniversary of the Tories' 1992 election stunner. That really was quite the election, and I wonder if this next one might be even more dramatic.

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This is worse than the 90s.

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This is worse than the 90s.

I await the news that a Tory MP has been found dead from autoerotic self-strangulation while wearing nothing but stockings and suspenders and an orange in his mouth.  _{notthattheresanythingwrongwiththat}

I knew about Stephen Milligan (gosh, that was probably the weirdest scandal on its own), but the scandal didn't really touch John Major personally. This is worse than the 90s in that Boris is directly implicated. Remember, the Edwina Currie thing did not become public until after Major left office.