UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[JimJamUK]

Why is the 2019 intake so utterly chaotic- compared to say the Labour 97 of Tory 2010 intake?

But is it really? I mean, the 2010 intake included Louise Bagshawe Mensch!

[JimJamUK]

My unpopular take is that this isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Conservatives. Boris can limp on but he is damaged. A few more months of cost of living, poor polling and by-election defeats can lead to 30 MPs switching sides and getting rid of him. If I was wanting to be the next Conservative leader I would want him to last a while longer so he absorbs a lot of the public hate and then the new leader can take over as the economy gets better (or stays bad, which at worst makes no difference from getting rid of him now). A new leader in 2023 would then give them a bit of time to define themselves and move on from Boris. The counter argument is that the longer Boris stays the more damage he does to the Conservative brand (just look at how long the damage from Blair, Brown, Miliband and Corbyn’s leadership lasted in some form or other), and his ability to make poor decisions will damage whoever succeeds him.

[JimJamUK]

He seems to have been appointed envoy to the Red Wall by the Lobby and broadcasters. Not sure why!

He's from Gateshead, dontcha know.

Privately educated of course, not that it’s done his analysis any good.

[JimJamUK]

Boris briefing that they’re going for deficit financed tax cuts now Rishi’s gone.

[JimJamUK]

Why don’t she just keep Priti Patel? Patel seems to me to deliver everything Conservative Home Secretary need to deliver, while having the added benefit of still being too unpopular to being a threat to her PM. Yes she not very competent, but mostly her job is to make the Guardian crowd rage against her and she seems to be great at that.

Patel’s unpopularity in fairly widespread. Obviously ‘progressives’ don’t like her, but she isn’t very popular among social conservatives/the general public either (perception of illegal immigration still not being stopped, crime out of control etc). She’s also just not a very likeable person. Theresa May did a much better job from a public relations point of view.

[JimJamUK]

The newest YouGov poll has Labour ahead by 15%. Less than a month ago they found a (semi) shock poll of Labour’s lead falling to only 1% (which was not repeated by other pollsters afterwards). They do seem to bounce around a lot these days having some of the biggest and smallest Labour leads at various times.

[JimJamUK]

Given that the current Opinium methodology is geared towards stability and is as much a projection as a snapshot in time, that’s a surprisingly large Labour lead.

[JimJamUK]

If you ever wanted a good example of how the British press live in an alternate universe (and which is probably increasingly harmful to the long-term interests of the Conservative Party), look no further than tomorrows Express headline “VOTERS WONT FORGIVE RAIL STRIKE BETRAYAL”. They’re talking about something of substance like the governments response or the actions or the train operators/unions, right? Nope, it’s the Labour Party which is the problem. Is any normal, persuadable voter obsessing over the Labour Party’s lack of opposition (or frankly opinion) to the rail strikes, probably not. Are the aforementioned voters a lot more concerned about finding a resolution and by extension the actions of relevant actors, probably. Are papers like the Express doing anything to push the government towards a better actual outcome, no.

[JimJamUK]

Labour is in a relatively worse position than it has traditionally performed in the places that trended Conservative in 2017/2019, but is in a relatively better position than it was in 2019 (the comparison to 2017 will be a bit more spotty). Muh Trends are neither inevitable nor completely reversed, and they will have changed yet again by 2024.