UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Tintrlvr]

We leave the EU next month in all likelihood - what does he then do for the next 4 years?

(as I said elsewhere one answer to that, sadly, is making us into a managed democracy)

Boris Johnson is far from an ideal candidate for Prime Minister, but he's no Viktor Orban.

[Tintrlvr]

For the Liberal Democrats, who will likely run to succeed Swinson? Daisy Cooper? Munira Wilson?

I would say the likeliest candidates are Daisy Cooper, Layla Moran and Sarah Olney. I wonder if there wouldn't be a Scottish candidate also considering a significant portion of the caucus is from Scotland still, but none of the Scottish MPs seem especially likely.

Wera Hobhouse also has leadership potential, but I think she expressly disclaimed interest last time around.

[Tintrlvr]

"Scottish Labour is considering backing a second independence referendum in a dramatic reversal of policy by the party leader, Richard Leonard.

Party sources have told the Guardian that Leonard will raise that possibility at Labour’s Scottish executive committee on Saturday, where it could also discuss demands for it to split formally from the UK Labour party."

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jan/09/scottish-labour-could-back-independence-referendum-indyref2

This surely can't have majority support in what remains of Scottish Labour, can it?

[Tintrlvr]

I think it has also showed up in other polls before.

I think it has showed up in polls quite consistently too.

People used to say the same of Quebec independence, though, and then the tides shifted in youth opinion and now the youth are one of the most opposed groups. NI is different because it's a fundamental demographic shift (more Catholics, fewer Protestants), although even there isn't not completely clear-cut.

[Tintrlvr]

SNP don't count, then?

Even the SNP is better than Labour or Johnson.

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It's not exactly high praise...

[Tintrlvr]

Try telling me that this man didn’t know exactly what he was doing.

I'm sure the voters of Wakefield, Tiverton and Honiton and the yet to be revealed Mystery Sex Pest Constituency will be thrilled to see this photo on their leaflets. Preferably next to a stock image of an elderly woman in a hospital bed.

I am sure, although the Mystery Sex Pest constituency is of a kin to Old Bexley and Sidcup and will not be flipping in a by-election.

[Tintrlvr]

🚨 Lib Dem by-election gain… 🚨

…in North Shropshire

Council by-election today has resulted in a Lib Dem pickup.

Actually South Shropshire, about as far south as you can go. The resigning incumbent was a Local Independent For Local People type: personal views rather right-wing, though as always with such politicians that's a detail.

The seat had also been Lib Dem before the resigning Independent came along, so this isn't that shocking.

[Tintrlvr]

Follow-up to point 1, but is there any world where a Con-Lib coalition (or any scenario where the Lib Dems prop up the Tories) happens? My intuition says no way because I’d imagine the scars from the coalition are still there.

I don't think so in this election cycle. Alistair Carmichael (a Lib Dem frontbencher) briefly floated the idea that the Lib Dems could work with the Tories earlier this year, but this was refuted by party leadership pretty quickly.

In 1992, a 13 year old Tory Government was predicted to lose it's majority. The Lib Dems came out and said that they were open to forming a confidence and supply agreement, but inferred that the government losing its majority would be tantamount to a loss of confidence, and that Labour were their more natural allies anyways. Right now, they're staying fairly tight-lipped, but the same consensus seems to be in place.

This is backed up by recent by-elections, where both parties have effectively conceded seats to one another, in order to spite the Tories. It's unclear whether the LDs would be up for entering a cast-iron coalition again, but if not, they could still wring some policy wins out of a Labour minority government (electoral reform, and a step towards proportional representation likely being their major goal).

Ironically though, they may not have too much power over a Labour minority. The SNP were raked over the coals in the 80s for voting no-confidence in the Callaghan government, opening the door to Thatcher at Labour's most vulnerable moment, which was one of the factors that led to severely weakened SNP support in the next series of election cycles. If the Tories bring a vote of no confidence in a minority Labour government, while they climb in the polls, all other centre-left parties could find themselves forced into a corner, politically. Vote for a government with fading public approval? Or vote for an election where you could be blamed for letting the Tories return to power?

I will add that I don't think the current Tory leadership (whether Johnson, Sunak or Truss) is suitable to cooperation from the Lib Dems. If you magically brought back Cameron or one of his allies, such as Osbourne, to lead the Tories (and the baggage of the Coalition with those individuals in particular didn't exist), there might be at least semi-serious discussion of the possibility within the Lib Dems, but the Conservative Party as it is has drifted quite far from the party the Lib Dems thought they were signing up with in 2010 (in some ways of course the Lib Dems had expectations even then that turned out to be false). Maybe Truss the chameleon will turn out to be a liberal after all, but she certainly doesn't talk like one now.

The Lib Dems are also a different party now, with much of the economic right of the party having disappeared from prominence after the Coalition.