UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero
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  UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero
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Author Topic: UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero  (Read 224785 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #5675 on: August 03, 2022, 08:02:38 AM »
« edited: August 03, 2022, 08:16:47 AM by CumbrianLefty »

I don't have a very high opinion of the Tory membership, but this clearly isn't true and Sunaks ethnicity isn't a factor in why he's probably going to lose.

I find it pretty interesting, this total denial in thinking that Sunak’s ethnicity could play a role in both his leadership campaign and the general election. I saw a similarity in the Brexit referendum, where British pundits analysis was that the British xenophobia extended to East European but not to Commonwealth citizens, while I think it was pretty clear that normal British xenophobes extend their views to all foreigners not just to acceptable targets like white foreigners.

Racism - in all its forms - *was* a significant driver of Brexit support (though equally, racists weren't enough alone for them to actually win) but I remain sceptical it is a major factor in Sunak bombing. Indeed, in the absence of anything else many Tories would see the first ever non-white PM as another very useful stick to beat Labour with (whereas they have already had 2 female premiers)
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Pulaski
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« Reply #5676 on: August 03, 2022, 08:37:33 AM »

A truss is an old-fashioned medical advice designed to support a hernia.

Will the association with a discredited piece of equipment used for an unpleasant medical condition hurt Liz Truss in the polls?

Discuss with reference to ecraseurs and tobacco enemas.
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GenerationTerrorist
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« Reply #5677 on: August 04, 2022, 01:21:05 PM »

Looks like the sh**t is really about to hit the economic fan in autumn/winter. Recession predicted for 12 months. The country is an absolute omnishambles at the moment.
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afleitch
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« Reply #5678 on: August 04, 2022, 01:41:29 PM »

'Living of the Truss Fund' might end up being the new thread title btw.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #5679 on: August 04, 2022, 02:04:18 PM »

As the forum's only Truss supporter I believe I should be the one to create and name the new thread. I think "In Liz we Truss" is the best but there's lots of others we could rotate through during her months in office.
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Blair
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« Reply #5680 on: August 04, 2022, 02:42:01 PM »

As the forum's only Truss supporter I believe I should be the one to create and name the new thread. I think "In Liz we Truss" is the best but there's lots of others we could rotate through during her months in office.

Surely it has to be ‘this is a disgrace’
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #5681 on: August 04, 2022, 06:24:04 PM »

Everything might seem like it's going terribly right now but don't worry, it'll feel so much worst when the Tories win the next election regardless
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #5682 on: August 04, 2022, 09:30:34 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2022, 09:49:49 PM by DINGO Joe »

As the forum's only Truss supporter I believe I should be the one to create and name the new thread. I think "In Liz we Truss" is the best but there's lots of others we could rotate through during her months in office.

Surely it has to be ‘this is a disgrace’

I offer a slight amendment

‘This....Is....A....Disgrace.’

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Torrain
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« Reply #5683 on: August 05, 2022, 06:23:32 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2022, 06:40:40 AM by Torrain »

Mixed set of polling from Ipsos-Mori today, with warnings for both major parties. 

Johnson's final PM satisfaction rating is 24%, a net rating of -45%, a worst net leaving rate than any PM than Thatcher (-46%).

Starmer isn't doing all that great at the minute though either - stuck on a -20% net approval rate, at 29% approval, and 49% dissatisfied. That's worse than the average LOTO (with a net -12% approval rating), and far weaker than the approvals of Blair and Cameron going into their election year, when both achieved net-positive ratings.

A clear majority stands in opposition to the current government being re-elected, but support for the Opposition to form the next government is still lukewarm.
Support for Labour to form the next government is higher than any time since 2010, but still lags far behind the support Cameron and Blair achieved in the run-up to their elections.

Obviously this is all academic at the moment. Fuel prices and the economic situation could put the government in a far worse position, or Truss could (less plausibly, but never say die) effectively claim Johnson's populist mantle, and claw back enough support for the government. Most PMs get a honeymoon - the question is whether Truss can pull polling back to parity, and whether this survives the forecasted economic turbulence.

Full write-up here: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/majority-do-not-think-conservative-government-deserves-be-re-elected-public-remain-unsure-about
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afleitch
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« Reply #5684 on: August 05, 2022, 07:53:31 AM »

Not terrible for Starmer.

37% 'ready' isn't bad compared to his predecessors particularly as the 'not ready' is low. Corbyn's score was the same for both elections despite one being significantly worse than the other.
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rc18
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« Reply #5685 on: August 05, 2022, 08:54:37 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2022, 02:54:30 PM by rc18 »

The don't knows for Starmer are on average twice as large as for previous leaders, that suggests poor cut-through with the electorate. This relatively high don't know share has been persistent for years now and present among different pollsters. As we see with the satisfaction numbers, the general trend is that sentiment for Starmer gets worse over time; the don't knows are far more likely to break against than for.

His net support among Labour voters (+24) is only marginally higher than Boris' among Conservative voters even now (+19).

Labour's poll lead has more to do with Tory dissatisfaction with their party than any real interest in the electorate for a Labour government. As the GE draws closer disgruntled Tories are likely to drift back.

The Tories' most significant opponent will be the economy, not Starmer.
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Torrain
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« Reply #5686 on: August 05, 2022, 09:03:50 AM »

Not terrible for Starmer.

37% 'ready' isn't bad compared to his predecessors particularly as the 'not ready' is low. Corbyn's score was the same for both elections despite one being significantly worse than the other.

Aye - the electoral ceiling for Starmer seems to be a lot higher than it was for Miliband or Corbyn, with more floating voters. I guess it's the question of winning a decent slice of that dithering 20-30% of the electorate that troubles me.

Labour soared to 1997 levels in polling during the two peaks of partygate frenzy (January and June/July 2022), and if the winter gets ugly on the energy supply/costing front, I'd imagine they could establish a healthy lead - not that those circumstances are anything to celebrate. But I think I'd just like to see Labour perform better in between Tory crises (where they've averaged only a 5% lead since pulling ahead in December 2021), rather than simply during them, before I get more confident about predicting anything better for them than a hung parliament in 2024.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #5687 on: August 05, 2022, 10:49:00 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2022, 10:52:09 AM by CumbrianLefty »

In mitigation though, its easily forgotten not only how badly Labour lost in 2019 but just how epochal it seemed at the time (all the confident proclamations about "realignment" and so on) and few would have given them much hope of returning to power in just one election then.

It is also far from impossible that what may well be to come breaks the underlying faith that many still have in the Tories as the "default" party of government, as happened after Black Wednesday (or indeed the Winter of Discontent for Labour) In fact, widespread voter enthusiasm for an incoming government was maybe only really seen once post-war - in 1997 -  and the way that ultimately turned out arguably shows that such a thing is not an unalloyed boon in the longer run.
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Badger
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« Reply #5688 on: August 05, 2022, 11:32:15 AM »

Not terrible for Starmer.

37% 'ready' isn't bad compared to his predecessors particularly as the 'not ready' is low. Corbyn's score was the same for both elections despite one being significantly worse than the other.

He's doing far far worse than Tony Blair did, or even David cameron. He has comparable ratings to Ed miliband. Take that for what it is worth
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5689 on: August 05, 2022, 01:18:24 PM »

I wonder how much Starmer's situation in regards to voter perceptions is similar to Biden's situation - AKA there is a significant section of your base who vehemently disapprove of you for factional reasons, but are partisans and will still turn out to vote straight-line for Labour/Dems. Starmer of course can't exactly get these people to see his side for the foreseeable future, since their disagreements more stem from the fact he replaced Corbyn and is perceived by them to be against Corbyn's policies - whether there is truth or that or not,
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5690 on: August 05, 2022, 02:27:37 PM »

Not terrible for Starmer.

37% 'ready' isn't bad compared to his predecessors particularly as the 'not ready' is low. Corbyn's score was the same for both elections despite one being significantly worse than the other.

He's doing far far worse than Tony Blair did, or even David cameron. He has comparable ratings to Ed miliband. Take that for what it is worth

Except that he doesn't: given how our electoral system works the negative numbers are as important as the positive ones. Amongst other things it has always been the case that a less polarised electorate is better news for Labour than anyone else.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #5691 on: August 06, 2022, 04:27:01 AM »

Starmer is not doing "far" worse than Cameron, or "about as bad" as Miliband - unless, of course, you are going to do that time honoured online thing of selectively cherry picking your polls.

Yes, he is nowhere near where Blair was - but so what? I'm coming to the conclusion that mention of him in this context should be banned - he was a one off that we will likely never see again.
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pikachu
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« Reply #5692 on: August 06, 2022, 10:08:11 AM »

In mitigation though, its easily forgotten not only how badly Labour lost in 2019 but just how epochal it seemed at the time (all the confident proclamations about "realignment" and so on) and few would have given them much hope of returning to power in just one election then.

It is also far from impossible that what may well be to come breaks the underlying faith that many still have in the Tories as the "default" party of government, as happened after Black Wednesday (or indeed the Winter of Discontent for Labour) In fact, widespread voter enthusiasm for an incoming government was maybe only really seen once post-war - in 1997 -  and the way that ultimately turned out arguably shows that such a thing is not an unalloyed boon in the longer run.

What would be the minimum result Starmer needs in 2024 to stay as leader considering Labour’s starting from such a low base? Is it form a government or he’s out?
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Torrain
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« Reply #5693 on: August 06, 2022, 12:22:07 PM »

What would be the minimum result Starmer needs in 2024 to stay as leader considering Labour’s starting from such a low base? Is it form a government or he’s out?
If the Tories lose their majority, and lack enough DUP votes to form a stable majority, Starmer is likely safe, regardless of the size of the Labour recovery:
  • Inter-party negotiations on government formation, where Starmer's moderate tendencies make collaboration with the Lib Dems more plausible, and his electoral performance allows him to claim something of a mandate (will be fun to see the two Labour factions switch arguments from 2017 on this topic).
  • A probable second election, arising from the incumbent government collapsing around a Queen's Speech or controversial legislation, particularly if the Conservatives try to limp on as a minority government.

Basically, if the Conservatives get under 305 seats, Starmer is ok - if they get any more than 320, he's likely screwed. A Tory majority of any size, even one challenged by a 250-260 Labour opposition (powered by a miraculous Scottish and Northern recovery), would be probably be sufficient for him to lose his job. MPs will praise his role in the party's recovery, but the memory of Kinnock and Corbyn's second attempts at an election (and the ambition of rival MPs) will probably be too strong to allow him to go on.
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pikachu
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« Reply #5694 on: August 06, 2022, 01:28:10 PM »

What would be the minimum result Starmer needs in 2024 to stay as leader considering Labour’s starting from such a low base? Is it form a government or he’s out?
If the Tories lose their majority, and lack enough DUP votes to form a stable majority, Starmer is likely safe, regardless of the size of the Labour recovery:
  • Inter-party negotiations on government formation, where Starmer's moderate tendencies make collaboration with the Lib Dems more plausible, and his electoral performance allows him to claim something of a mandate (will be fun to see the two Labour factions switch arguments from 2017 on this topic).
  • A probable second election, arising from the incumbent government collapsing around a Queen's Speech or controversial legislation, particularly if the Conservatives try to limp on as a minority government.

Basically, if the Conservatives get under 305 seats, Starmer is ok - if they get any more than 320, he's likely screwed. A Tory majority of any size, even one challenged by a 250-260 Labour opposition (powered by a miraculous Scottish and Northern recovery), would be probably be sufficient for him to lose his job. MPs will praise his role in the party's recovery, but the memory of Kinnock and Corbyn's second attempts at an election (and the ambition of rival MPs) will probably be too strong to allow him to go on.

Follow-up to point 1, but is there any world where a Con-Lib coalition (or any scenario where the Lib Dems prop up the Tories) happens? My intuition says no way because I’d imagine the scars from the coalition are still there.
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Blair
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« Reply #5695 on: August 06, 2022, 02:00:10 PM »

What would be the minimum result Starmer needs in 2024 to stay as leader considering Labour’s starting from such a low base? Is it form a government or he’s out?
If the Tories lose their majority, and lack enough DUP votes to form a stable majority, Starmer is likely safe, regardless of the size of the Labour recovery:
  • Inter-party negotiations on government formation, where Starmer's moderate tendencies make collaboration with the Lib Dems more plausible, and his electoral performance allows him to claim something of a mandate (will be fun to see the two Labour factions switch arguments from 2017 on this topic).
  • A probable second election, arising from the incumbent government collapsing around a Queen's Speech or controversial legislation, particularly if the Conservatives try to limp on as a minority government.

Basically, if the Conservatives get under 305 seats, Starmer is ok - if they get any more than 320, he's likely screwed. A Tory majority of any size, even one challenged by a 250-260 Labour opposition (powered by a miraculous Scottish and Northern recovery), would be probably be sufficient for him to lose his job. MPs will praise his role in the party's recovery, but the memory of Kinnock and Corbyn's second attempts at an election (and the ambition of rival MPs) will probably be too strong to allow him to go on.

His age is also likely to be a factor- I think there was a time where this result might just about let him stay on for a year or two and pick his successor but a combination of partygate, the economic crisis & backlog britain will mean it would be seen as an election that he should have won.
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Torrain
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« Reply #5696 on: August 06, 2022, 02:15:48 PM »

Follow-up to point 1, but is there any world where a Con-Lib coalition (or any scenario where the Lib Dems prop up the Tories) happens? My intuition says no way because I’d imagine the scars from the coalition are still there.
I don't think so in this election cycle. Alistair Carmichael (a Lib Dem frontbencher) briefly floated the idea that the Lib Dems could work with the Tories earlier this year, but this was refuted by party leadership pretty quickly.

In 1992, a 13 year old Tory Government was predicted to lose it's majority. The Lib Dems came out and said that they were open to forming a confidence and supply agreement, but inferred that the government losing its majority would be tantamount to a loss of confidence, and that Labour were their more natural allies anyways. Right now, they're staying fairly tight-lipped, but the same consensus seems to be in place.

This is backed up by recent by-elections, where both parties have effectively conceded seats to one another, in order to spite the Tories. It's unclear whether the LDs would be up for entering a cast-iron coalition again, but if not, they could still wring some policy wins out of a Labour minority government (electoral reform, and a step towards proportional representation likely being their major goal).

Ironically though, they may not have too much power over a Labour minority. The SNP were raked over the coals in the 80s for voting no-confidence in the Callaghan government, opening the door to Thatcher at Labour's most vulnerable moment, which was one of the factors that led to severely weakened SNP support in the next series of election cycles. If the Tories bring a vote of no confidence in a minority Labour government, while they climb in the polls, all other centre-left parties could find themselves forced into a corner, politically. Vote for a government with fading public approval? Or vote for an election where you could be blamed for letting the Tories return to power?
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afleitch
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« Reply #5697 on: August 06, 2022, 02:45:23 PM »

Certainly this winter we will see people literally freeze to death in their own homes. If Labour can't maintain an election winning poll lead it should just wind down.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #5698 on: August 06, 2022, 03:18:27 PM »

Follow-up to point 1, but is there any world where a Con-Lib coalition (or any scenario where the Lib Dems prop up the Tories) happens? My intuition says no way because I’d imagine the scars from the coalition are still there.
I don't think so in this election cycle. Alistair Carmichael (a Lib Dem frontbencher) briefly floated the idea that the Lib Dems could work with the Tories earlier this year, but this was refuted by party leadership pretty quickly.

In 1992, a 13 year old Tory Government was predicted to lose it's majority. The Lib Dems came out and said that they were open to forming a confidence and supply agreement, but inferred that the government losing its majority would be tantamount to a loss of confidence, and that Labour were their more natural allies anyways. Right now, they're staying fairly tight-lipped, but the same consensus seems to be in place.

This is backed up by recent by-elections, where both parties have effectively conceded seats to one another, in order to spite the Tories. It's unclear whether the LDs would be up for entering a cast-iron coalition again, but if not, they could still wring some policy wins out of a Labour minority government (electoral reform, and a step towards proportional representation likely being their major goal).

Ironically though, they may not have too much power over a Labour minority. The SNP were raked over the coals in the 80s for voting no-confidence in the Callaghan government, opening the door to Thatcher at Labour's most vulnerable moment, which was one of the factors that led to severely weakened SNP support in the next series of election cycles. If the Tories bring a vote of no confidence in a minority Labour government, while they climb in the polls, all other centre-left parties could find themselves forced into a corner, politically. Vote for a government with fading public approval? Or vote for an election where you could be blamed for letting the Tories return to power?

I will add that I don't think the current Tory leadership (whether Johnson, Sunak or Truss) is suitable to cooperation from the Lib Dems. If you magically brought back Cameron or one of his allies, such as Osbourne, to lead the Tories (and the baggage of the Coalition with those individuals in particular didn't exist), there might be at least semi-serious discussion of the possibility within the Lib Dems, but the Conservative Party as it is has drifted quite far from the party the Lib Dems thought they were signing up with in 2010 (in some ways of course the Lib Dems had expectations even then that turned out to be false). Maybe Truss the chameleon will turn out to be a liberal after all, but she certainly doesn't talk like one now.

The Lib Dems are also a different party now, with much of the economic right of the party having disappeared from prominence after the Coalition.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5699 on: August 06, 2022, 08:10:49 PM »

Also to add to the uncertainty, it depends upon Labour's personal number in the event that the Tories lose the ability to form a government. A Labour government that requires the SNP and the Lib-Dems is a different beast from one that only needs the SNP or the Lib-Dems, from the position of all parties involved.
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