UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero
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  UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero
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Author Topic: UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero  (Read 283702 times)
Torrain
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« Reply #5050 on: July 01, 2022, 09:33:13 AM »

Number 10 saying that Pincher admitted it, so there doesn't need to be any further investigations or sanctions. I do wonder just how long this self-evidently risible "line" can prevail.

Neil Parish has, pardon the phrasing, screwed them.

By losing the whip, and then resigning over a bad, but not that bad scandal, he’s inviting comparisons whenever a colleague subsequently does something worse.
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Torrain
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« Reply #5051 on: July 01, 2022, 10:30:03 AM »

Update to the above. Before this afternoon, Parish was just inadvertently screwing the Tory party. Now he’s doing it on purpose:


Sure, he’s bitter about having to resign. But somehow, he’s made a more consistent, and reasonable argument on penalties for abusive MPs than either the PM or the leader of the SNP have in the past fortnight.

Tractor porn man has almost become the voice of reason. What an absolute state we’re in.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #5052 on: July 01, 2022, 10:43:51 AM »

It isn't as if anyone is going to buy it anyway.
He seems to have been appointed envoy to the Red Wall by the Lobby and broadcasters. Not sure why!
He's from Gateshead, dontcha know.
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Blair
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« Reply #5053 on: July 01, 2022, 11:08:12 AM »

Pincher has lost the whip- only took 24 hours. Clearly the new fabled no.10 operation.

Imo assuming there’s an investigation it makes a by-election more likely.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #5054 on: July 01, 2022, 01:11:38 PM »

Chris Pincher, yes that’s his name, has resigned as deputy chief whip after an incident last night.

Will post more once his letter is released…

Nominative determinism it appears.

It’s almost the inverse of his name haha. Gropeham would’ve been even better.
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Blair
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« Reply #5055 on: July 01, 2022, 01:47:14 PM »

It was reported the MP named Peter Bottomley said he hoped pincher would return to Government on a WhatsApp group.

I won’t tell you the name of his wife- that would ruin the joke.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #5056 on: July 01, 2022, 06:08:20 PM »

He seems to have been appointed envoy to the Red Wall by the Lobby and broadcasters. Not sure why!
He's from Gateshead, dontcha know.
Privately educated of course, not that it’s done his analysis any good.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5057 on: July 01, 2022, 06:10:47 PM »

Is sex in the office a sackable offence in the UK?

How did George Costanza get elected to the UK Parliament?
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #5058 on: July 01, 2022, 07:43:49 PM »

Is sex in the office a sackable offence in the UK?

How did George Costanza get elected to the UK Parliament?

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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #5059 on: July 01, 2022, 11:40:36 PM »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-mortgages-parents-children-b2113882.html?


Boris Johnson is trying to speed-run getting 0% of the youth vote, seriously a 50 year mortage what the actual hell is that.
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TheTide
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« Reply #5060 on: July 02, 2022, 01:58:53 AM »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-mortgages-parents-children-b2113882.html?


Boris Johnson is trying to speed-run getting 0% of the youth vote, seriously a 50 year mortage what the actual hell is that.

Every aspect, side and proposal of the housing 'debate' is stupid.
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YL
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« Reply #5061 on: July 02, 2022, 04:14:45 AM »

It was reported the MP named Peter Bottomley said he hoped pincher would return to Government on a WhatsApp group.

I won’t tell you the name of his wife- that would ruin the joke.

Well, she actually rose higher politically than he has, but is long retired.  She is also remembered for her name being an anagram of "I'M AN EVIL TORY BIGOT", which was perhaps a little harsh; I always thought she was fairly inoffensive by Tory standards.

Speaking of her, her constituency was South West Surrey, now held by one Jeremy Hunt: archetypal stockbroker belt around places like Godalming and Haslemere.  YouGov have done another of their MRPs covering a selection of constituencies, this time seats currently held by the Tories but with the Lib Dems on over 20% in 2019: article here.  Perhaps the most striking of the individual seat projections (though, like all individual seat projections, deserving of something of a pinch of salt) is that Hunt would lose that seat to the Lib Dems.  It's not even shown as particularly close.
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Pericles
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« Reply #5062 on: July 02, 2022, 04:53:58 AM »

Hunt would then be another example of the same effect seen in Australia, where the most moderate MPs (or at least the 'best fits' for the educated voters leaving the base) are disproportionately taken out by the wave. That election should be even more reason for them not to fool around and hesitate about knifing the leader.
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Torrain
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« Reply #5063 on: July 02, 2022, 05:00:21 AM »

Speaking of her, her constituency was South West Surrey, now held by one Jeremy Hunt: archetypal stockbroker belt around places like Godalming and Haslemere.  YouGov have done another of their MRPs covering a selection of constituencies, this time seats currently held by the Tories but with the Lib Dems on over 20% in 2019: article here.  Perhaps the most striking of the individual seat projections (though, like all individual seat projections, deserving of something of a pinch of salt) is that Hunt would lose that seat to the Lib Dems.  It's not even shown as particularly close.

That analysis throws out some wild hypotheticals. Henley, the safe Tory seat held by Johnson in the 2000s, and Helseltine before him is one of those shown to be with a victory margin of just 2%. That’s a seat that’s been comfortably Tory since creation, with the exception of a single term in 1906 - when it was swept up in the Liberal Party landslide.

I know it’s become cliche to say that the Tories will struggle to contain both the post-industrial heavily Leave-voting seats in the North, and remain-friendly seats with high numbers of graduates in the South (Red and Blue Wall respectively). But it’s interesting to see signs they’re facing significant vulnerabilities on both fronts - suggesting one of two things: either their attempt to placate both groups simultaneously is failing, or voters in the South have shifted tactically to the Lib Dems as part of an anti-Tory strategy.

I’d add that, the worst Tory election nights are ones where the voters don’t have a grudge against either the Lib Dems or Labour, and so tactical voting is widespread enough to make a impact. It’s what made 1997 go from bad to worse for the Conservatives - typified by the fact that the Lib Dems more than doubled their seat total, on a vote share smaller than they received in 1992.
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Torrain
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« Reply #5064 on: July 02, 2022, 06:36:21 AM »

New this afternoon - the Times is reporting fresh allegations against Pincher, this time at the 2021 Party Conference.

The Times apparently has contemporaneous evidence - texts from the victim at the time of the alleged event, discussing it with a friend. It’s further evidence of a pattern of behaviour, and makes it harder to see Pincher surviving as a member of the Commons.
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Cassius
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« Reply #5065 on: July 02, 2022, 06:42:27 AM »

what do we think of Boris getting a blowie during work hours by his then mistress now wife and offering her a job as chief of staff at the FCO during that period? In any other country it would have been the talk of the town.

Coupled with the strikes - clearly we have become France!
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #5066 on: July 02, 2022, 06:55:45 AM »

New this afternoon - the Times is reporting fresh allegations against Pincher, this time at the 2021 Party Conference.

The Times apparently has contemporaneous evidence - texts from the victim at the time of the alleged event, discussing it with a friend. It’s further evidence of a pattern of behaviour, and makes it harder to see Pincher surviving as a member of the Commons.

Lots of people think the Tories would hold a Tamworth byelection even now (and yes, I am inclined to agree with that myself) and that might make it a bit more likely he is pushed out over this.
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Blair
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« Reply #5067 on: July 02, 2022, 10:05:19 AM »

He is seeking ‘medical help’ so I assume he’ll largely disappear- the danger point for quitting tends to be in the days after, but we have the looming investigation.

I expect he will stand down at the next election.
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Torrain
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« Reply #5068 on: July 02, 2022, 10:49:24 AM »

New this afternoon - the Times is reporting fresh allegations against Pincher, this time at the 2021 Party Conference.

The Times apparently has contemporaneous evidence - texts from the victim at the time of the alleged event, discussing it with a friend. It’s further evidence of a pattern of behaviour, and makes it harder to see Pincher surviving as a member of the Commons.

Lots of people think the Tories would hold a Tamworth byelection even now (and yes, I am inclined to agree with that myself) and that might make it a bit more likely he is pushed out over this.

Aye - it would definitely be a heavy lift for Labour if the last couple of cycles are anything to go by. Ironically, I could see some staff in no.10 briefing a by-election as a chance for the government to “reset” the narrative (especially if they win) - even though the circumstances of such an election would be pretty damning in themselves.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5069 on: July 02, 2022, 10:56:28 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2022, 02:44:10 PM by Oryxslayer »

So YouGov did a MRP poll/estimation of Tory seats the Lib-Dems could target. Obviously I think the biggest thing that needs to be stated is that what defines a Lib-Dem target is only really minimally decided by the last election results, its more do to their base floor, campaign effort, and candidates they recruit. What I find most interesting is the southeastern swings, mainly around Surrey. In many of these seats the Lib-Dems have a local base, but never could break on through. Now however it looks like the Dominos may be falling fast, which means similar seats to the west and north of London not polled might also be battlegrounds.
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Blair
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« Reply #5070 on: July 02, 2022, 11:08:44 AM »

The interesting thing about Hunt's seat is that he's broadly got the same share of the vote since 2010- around the high 50s.

It just seems in 2019 the opposition vote went to the Liberal democrats & he dropped down to 53%- so not exactly surprising but still will be ringing alarm bells.

The Tories haven't really faced an election since 1997 where both Labour & the Liberal Democrats stand a good chance of taking seats off them- it would make depriving them of a majority a lot easier...
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kyc0705
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« Reply #5071 on: July 02, 2022, 11:56:20 AM »

As a particularly extreme case of what divided opposition will do for you, Hunt's vote share in 2015 was 59.6%, only ~six points higher than it was in 2019, but he had a 50-point majority because none of his opponents got more than 10% of the vote.
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YL
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« Reply #5072 on: July 02, 2022, 01:26:38 PM »

He is seeking ‘medical help’ so I assume he’ll largely disappear- the danger point for quitting tends to be in the days after, but we have the looming investigation.

I expect he will stand down at the next election.

As I understand things, the investigation could produce a suspension as it did for Rob Roberts.  And the loophole in the Recall of MPs Act which meant no Delyn by-election has been closed, so there would then be a recall petition if the suspension is long enough.  Unless he quits in the next day or so, I think that's the most likely way he's forced out before the next election.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #5073 on: July 03, 2022, 04:41:03 PM »

More and more stuff coming out about Pincher, decent chance he will be gone as an MP within days.
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Blair
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« Reply #5074 on: July 04, 2022, 06:17:09 AM »

Can I get a super injunction against the baseless super injunction rumours coming from both BackBoris and FBPE Twitter?

I seriously worry for these people.
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