UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[brucejoel99]

lol RIP BoJo:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rebels-plot-rule-change-to-allow-new-confidence-vote-on-boris-johnsons-leadership-3txhrdwjw

Conservative rebels are determined to change the party's leadership rules and force another vote on Boris Johnson's leadership within months.

Leading figures among the 148 MPs who voted for a new leader last night said they did not believe that the prime minister should be afforded the usual year-long period of immunity from another challenge.

The rule protecting Johnson until next June can be changed by a simple majority of officers of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers.

"There is a majority of 1922 officers who will agree to change the rules when the time is right," one influential opponent of Johnson told The Times. They said they expected the change to happen before the party's annual conference in October. "If we let him get to conference, he will effectively launch the election campaign and people will feel it’s too late for a change."

Another rebel said that they wanted another confidence vote straight after this month's by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton, which the Conservatives are widely expected to lose.

"After the by-elections there will be people deluded about his election-winning abilities who will finally realise what a mess we are in," the MP said. "It's never too soon to change the rules."

One MP said they were confident that Johnson had already lost more support since last night's vote, saying: "There were lots of MPs who thought he'd win by more who now realise how grave the problem is."

A complicating factor in any attempt to change the rules is that there are likely to be elections for the 1922 Committee's executive within weeks. Officers of the 1922 are braced for efforts by Downing Street to replace them with loyalists. But, crucially, only backbenchers can vote in 1922 elections, and last night's vote suggested that there is an anti-Johnson majority among them.

This morning Dominic Raab, the deputy prime minister, warned rebels against holding another confidence vote in the coming year. "Fiddling with the rules when you don't like the result is a bad look," he told the BBC.

[CumbrianLefty]

Even now they don't want to overplay their hand, though. Trying to force another vote too soon would look to some like the classic "you got it wrong the first time, now get the right answer" mentality that many Tories of course accused anti-Brexiters of embodying.

I think losing both the byelections is now almost universally expected, so it might not change much in itself - the Commons report due in the autumn could be a more plausible trigger.

[YL]

Some interesting stuff on Twitter about YouGov today.

[Torrain]

It’s worth noting just how “banana republic” Johnson’s rhetoric got at PMQs today.

Boris Johnson has said “absolutely nothing and no one” will stop him continuing in office, during his first prime minister’s questions since an unconvincing victory in a confidence vote among Tory MPs.

Very democratic, very normal.

[Blair]

It is worth noting that he has well burnt every job he has held for the last what 15 years?

I still content he would have lost if he ran for a third term as Mayor in 2016.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some interesting stuff on Twitter about YouGov today.

Given the culture of the industry, Curtis was quite brave to write what he did. I don't think there's anything surprising in what he's written (the general pattern has been suspected for a long time), but the confirmation is important. It doesn't quality as a major polling scandal, but it tells us to be a little cautious with this particular firm, at least when there are narratives at work.

[kwabbit]

A (no) confidence vote only within the governing party is kind of weird in my opinion. It should have taken place in the entire parliament, just as it is the case in other countries with a parliamentary system of government. Ergo, if 140 Tory MPs don't have confidence in Johnson plus the entire opposition, he no longer has the support from a majority of the legislative.

It’d be too difficult to arrive at another leader if that was the system. Hard to imagine anyone would get a majority of parliament at the moment. Such a system would essentially enable fringe elements of the majority party to prevent governance. Imagine it in the US, where the Dem narrow majority relies on Squad members. I think the Squad might vote NC in Biden, along with every Republican. And then it’d be near impossible for the Democratic coalition to arrive at a completely unifying candidate.

The way it is allows another leader to be installed by the party which won a term in government, because the party was elected to government, while BoJo wasn’t and was only chosen by the Conservative party itself.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some interesting stuff on Twitter about YouGov today.

Given the culture of the industry, Curtis was quite brave to write what he did. I don't think there's anything surprising in what he's written (the general pattern has been suspected for a long time), but the confirmation is important. It doesn't quality as a major polling scandal, but it tells us to be a little cautious with this particular firm, at least when there are narratives at work.

Peter Kellner has written a "defence" of the pollsters in teh Graun which is actually revealing even if it is read in that context - acknowledging that they routinely do "herding" for example.

[Torrain]

Drilling for fossil fuels in Jeremy Hunt’s constituency appears to have been approved, and made public within 48 hours of him publicly attacking Johnson. There could well be an innocent explanation, but it’s hard not to see this as petty revenge.

Especially given that the Isle of Wight’s MP yesterday made a specific point of saying that he voted for Johnson after he was promised significant funding for his constituency.

Full statement from Hunt at the link below.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1534827165329633285

[Pericles]

Drilling for fossil fuels in Jeremy Hunt’s constituency appears to have been approved, and made public within 48 hours of him publicly attacking Johnson. There could well be an innocent explanation, but it’s hard not to see this as petty revenge.

Especially given that the Isle of Wight’s MP yesterday made a specific point of saying that he voted for Johnson after he was promised significant funding for his constituency.

Full statement from Hunt at the link below.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1534827165329633285

Even if they don't like Hunt, that is close to a marginal seat at the next general election, if Boris is still leader. Hunt only won by 15 points and the LibDems had a huge surge in a seat that was 59% Remain. Elections don't tend to come down to a single seat but they're in no position to be throwing away seats.

[Torrain]

snip

Even if they don't like Hunt, that is close to a marginal seat at the next general election, if Boris is still leader. Hunt only won by 15 points and the LibDems had a huge surge in a seat that was 59% Remain. Elections don't tend to come down to a single seat but they're in no position to be throwing away seats.

It’s something they’ve got quite good at. My uncle and his family lives just off of Richmond Park in London. Between the Heathrow expansion, the language around Brexit and Zac Goldsmith’s antics, they’ve turned a Tory-leaning, very affluent suburb into a Lib Dem bastion (see Sarah Olney’s margin in 2019, and the near-Soviet majority the Lib Dems have on a council the Tories used to dominate).

The so-called “blue wall” is full of middle class voters who have a litany of small gripes with the Conservatives. The party can talk about the Red Wall all day long, but the sorts of seats they won in 2005 and 2010 are increasingly out of step with the party. Every step like this is just one more seat they have to play defence in for 2024.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Meanwhile they are now also getting routinely hammered in the rEd wAll (however defined and there remains zero consistency on that) even if they're in denial about it. The emerging pivot towards the bl... [NO MOAR WALLS] is unlikely to improve matters there, and I'm dubious about the degree of success likely in [NO MOAR WALLS] unless Johnson is removed, as he's literally at least half of the problem there.

Taking a little step back, and it's hard not to get the impression that they gleefully switched (back, after many decades) to a Catch All electoral strategy without realising the inherent difficulties of maintaining such a strategy when things get trickier. You can easily end up in a situation when you end up pissing off important blocks of voters on all fronts, especially when you don't understand them particularly well.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1534932332716736516?s=20&t=MF93Cb...

I spotted this in my feed today....replace "Ukraine" with "Me" and I think the statement might reflect Boris' true beliefs ATM. Not that the UK should stop its support, but Boris really has just used it as a shield to protect his job.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is anyone this side of the 'Stop' The War Coalition even suggesting that Britain abandons its support for Ukraine?

[Torrain]

Is anyone this side of the 'Stop' The War Coalition even suggesting that Britain abandons its support for Ukraine?

Of course not. But I do think Johnson daydreams about the opposition going soft on Russia, or taking a more Corbyn/Abbot/McDonnell approach to the conflict, so he’s got something easy to hit Labour and Starmer with, rather than clutching at strings like ‘Sir Beer Korma’.

I take Oryx’s point (that Johnson has used Ukraine as a shield against criticism, sometimes in tasteless ways), but I think there are far clearer examples to use out there - particularly the party talking points that he circulated on Monday, and Zahawi’s comments about how saving Johnson’s job was the best way to support Zelensky.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1534962564748169221

[EastAnglianLefty]

Is anyone this side of the 'Stop' The War Coalition even suggesting that Britain abandons its support for Ukraine?

Rishi Sunak, allegedly?

[CumbrianLefty]

Some interesting stuff on Twitter about YouGov today.

And last night Curtis posted a "clarification" on Twitter - as some said in response you could almost imagine the gun being pointed at his head as it was dictated to him.

[Blair]

There’s a pretty hilarious article in the Sunday Times by Tim Shipman saying the PM is okay because a focus group in the Midlands still backs him.

I really struggle to see what his Sunday pieces actually offer than ever worsening ‘palace intrigue’ (e.g who watched a play before the No-confidence vote). The political analysis is awful.

[CumbrianLefty]

Even more than that, he basically said "it shows the polls are wrong". Some are so totally invested in the idea of Johnson as an invincible political colossus that they will go into hilarious contortions.

[DINGO Joe]

So, I use twitter way way more now than I ever did because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and I noticed along the side that Benny Hill is trending, so I stupidly clicked on it and basically got Borisrolled.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-being-looked-at-host-24192949

Tories want to have their conference in Liverpool, isn't this an incredibly bad idea ?

[Torrain]

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-being-looked-at-host-24192949

Tories want to have their conference in Liverpool, isn't this an incredibly bad idea ?

I think there’s a small chance they’re trying to pull the stunt the GOP appear to have held with their 2004 Convention in NYC - hold your event in left-wing territory, and pretend to be shocked when you get a bunch of angry students and protestors on your doorstep. Paint your protestors as the “loony left”/“remoaners”/etc, and try and get public to sympathise with you. Then demand the shadow cabinet denounce the protests to try and drive a further wedge between activist and party.

If that was the case, I doubt it would be effective. Johnson being heckled by so-called “red wall” locals is hardly going to reassure the party faithful that they’re going to win in the North next time around. And this government is unpopular enough that watching them heckled may be taken as cathartic rather than raise sympathy.

There may be (and probably is) a more rational, simpler explanation (trying to show the party cares about “levelling up” etc), but if so, it’s still a baffling choice. The Conservatives only have one seat in all of Merseyside, and that’s a marginal that looks headed Labour’s way next time around.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-being-looked-at-host-24192949

Tories want to have their conference in Liverpool, isn't this an incredibly bad idea ?

I think there’s a small chance they’re trying to pull the stunt the GOP appear to have held with their 2004 Convention in NYC - hold your event in left-wing territory, and pretend to be shocked when you get a bunch of angry students and protestors on your doorstep. Paint your protestors as the “loony left”/“remoaners”/etc, and try and get public to sympathise with you. Then demand the shadow cabinet denounce the protests to try and drive a further wedge between activist and party.

If that was the case, I doubt it would be effective. Johnson being heckled by so-called “red wall” locals is hardly going to reassure the party faithful that they’re going to win in the North next time around. And this government is unpopular enough that watching them heckled may be taken as cathartic rather than raise sympathy.

There may be (and probably is) a more rational, simpler explanation (trying to show the party cares about “levelling up” etc), but if so, it’s still a baffling choice. The Conservatives only have one seat in all of Merseyside, and that’s a marginal that looks headed Labour’s way next time around.

Yeah I saw a similar comment on reddit, though my thinking is that the Liverpool protest crowd isn't exactly going to entirely "woke students" but instead more of your sterotypical red wall crowd.

Though previous Tory Conferences have been held in Manchester without major incident, so maybe the prospect of a local economic boost might be enough to quiet the anti-tory sentiment.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Honestly there are only so many venues that are able to hold a major party conference these days. In recent years the only places Labour or the Tories have gone have been Birmingham, Brighton, Liverpool or Manchester. Birmingham is the only one of those the Tories don't get embarrassing results in and even so it's still clearly a Labour city.

The conference itself is locked down, so protestors will only be able to demonstrate outside the entrance to the security area. And there are protestors every year, wherever it is. The fact that Merseyside hates the Tories isn't really relevant when most of Merseyside can't get near the conference centre.