UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Blair]

And of course one of the Conservative MPs who was lamenting misinformation online was one of the MPs who shared a doctored video from the far right about Keir Starmer and Rotherham.

Didn’t apologise for that of course.

[Pericles]

What awful luck for Starmer to test positive for Covid on Budget Day. Hope he's alright although he should easily recover.

[CumbrianLefty]

Some are seeing it as fortunate - if he had bombed today it would have badly affected his leadership, and as it is his supposed "rival" Reeves has got the gig instead. Let's see how they get on.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's pretty much impossible to respond effectively to the budget, because no prior notice of the content is given, so you can only go off the Chancellor's speech. The actual scrutiny doesn't start until about 24 hours later until everybody has had a chance to consult the Red Book and see to what extent the speech is actually an accurate reflection of the content of the Budget.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...and see to what extent the speech is actually an accurate reflection of the content of the Budget.

Particularly as the answer is frequently 'honestly very little'.

[MaxQue]

It's pretty much impossible to respond effectively to the budget, because no prior notice of the content is given, so you can only go off the Chancellor's speech. The actual scrutiny doesn't start until about 24 hours later until everybody has had a chance to consult the Red Book and see to what extent the speech is actually an accurate reflection of the content of the Budget.

You ought to do it the Canadian way (journalists and a staffers have access to it in a closed room, under embargo and no phones from 9AM, when the budget is at 4PM).

[Blair]

Hopefully it breaks the stupid tradition of LOTO doing it- they always do badly, partly because everyone knows that they’ll do badly. Even someone like Ed M who was a treasury official for a decade struggled.

They’re actually any rules governing this! It’s like when Corbyn did the rotating PMQs.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Main points in the Budget below. The tax burden will be the highest since the 1950s; public spending at "highest sustained level" since 1970s - impressive after eleven years of Conservative government...
Overall, much more a "Boris budget' than a "Rishi budget."

Key points, though the most important is obviously tax breaks for shipping firms who fly the Red Ensign
SPENDING:
Gentler universal credit tapering, worth £2.2b

Cuts to international aid expire in 2024

£4.7b by 2024-5 for schools, £2.2b for courts/prisons etc., >£10b for health, £8.7b for devolved administrations, £6.9b for transport, £13.3b for housing

2.4% GDP spending on R&D by 2027; £5.9b core science funding by 2025

Growth 2.5pts higher than forecast allows for a "rainy-day fund," probably for pre-election tax cuts

Medium term deficit around £45b; committment to balanced budget for day to day expenditure by 2025

TAXATION:
Business rates for retail, leisure and hospitality halved for a year

Bank profit surcharge cut to 3%

Fuel duty frozen for a year

Reduced duty on low ABV alcoholic drinks; progressivity by ABV

Cladding levy on construction companies to pay for removal of unsafe cladding


Plus minimum wage for over-23s rises to £9.50/hr.

[urutzizu]

It's interesting because the combination of
- ending the furlough scheme totally (most european countries keep it partially or at least extend it way into 2022)
-Universal Credit cut
-Taper rate cut
-Increasing Work allowance

added on to the already present situation of
-labour shortage
-strict immigration policy regarding low to medium skilled workers

is very clearly intended to add even more carrots to returning to work and even harder sticks to staying not working (for whatever reason) onto an economy with already 4.5% unemployment. If the UK actually manages to go to 3% or so like Japan, kudos (I have doubts), but even so, forcing it down no matter the inflationary pressure, seems to me such a clear revision of thatcher, even as the instruments to achieve it (Unemployment benefit cut, tax reduction) are still compatible with right-wing ideology.

[Pericles]

Some are seeing it as fortunate - if he had bombed today it would have badly affected his leadership, and as it is his supposed "rival" Reeves has got the gig instead. Let's see how they get on.

From the clip I saw Reeves did as well as could be hoped for, not that it matters.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It's interesting because the combination of
- ending the furlough scheme totally (most european countries keep it partially or at least extend it way into 2022)
-Universal Credit cut
-Taper rate cut
-Increasing Work allowance

added on to the already present situation of
-labour shortage
-strict immigration policy regarding low to medium skilled workers

is very clearly intended to add even more carrots to returning to work and even harder sticks to staying not working (for whatever reason) onto an economy with already 4.5% unemployment. If the UK actually manages to go to 3% or so like Japan, kudos (I have doubts), but even so, forcing it down no matter the inflationary pressure, seems to me such a clear revision of thatcher, even as the instruments to achieve it (Unemployment benefit cut, tax reduction) are still compatible with right-wing ideology.

Yes, this is something I'm concerned about. On the other hand, if it allows reduction in pandemic-level spending and helps smooth supply chain issues, that could ease inflationary pressures.

[Conservatopia]

Reeves did rather well I thought and got in a corker of a zinger for what it's worth.

Overall I'm fairly happy with this budget.  An increase in the cost of red wine is unacceptable however.

[Blair]

I love British politics- after months of the Tories shouting when Labour called the UC uplift removal a cut the Chancellor spun his changes to the UC taper rate (a technical change to welfare payments for non U.K. posters) as a tax cut!

It’s an interesting budget; they clearly want to get funding well ahead of the next election (hence why spending has gone up but taxes remain high- with the expected tax cut in the months before the GE)

Only baffling thing was on climate- but this is the typical treasury view which sees Air Passenger Duty as a revenue raiser alone and which looks for gimmicks to save the union!

[CumbrianLefty]

Some are seeing it as fortunate - if he had bombed today it would have badly affected his leadership, and as it is his supposed "rival" Reeves has got the gig instead. Let's see how they get on.

From the clip I saw Reeves did as well as could be hoped for, not that it matters.

As I said, it matters more if they flop. Reeves stood her ground very well yesterday - both in the HoC and the subsequent round of media interviews.

Doesn't mean I want her to be the next leader any more than before, but credit where it is due.

[Blair]

This is the first time I think Sunak has done quite badly; he was quite tetchy on radio 4 this morning, put his foot in it by calling Bury market Burnley (when he was stood in it!) and has gotten his pork barrel wrong by making a big song and dance claiming he had given Rachel Reeves seat money- when it actually went to a neighbouring Tory held seat.

All very Westminster bubble and not huge but all three suggest he isn’t as strong as he is written to be (something that applies to every chancellor for the last 15 years. If you want to be a good PM you need to leave the treasury within 3 years!

[CumbrianLefty]

This is the first time I think Sunak has done quite badly; he was quite tetchy on radio 4 this morning, put his foot in it by calling Bury market Burnley (when he was stood in it!) and has gotten his pork barrel wrong by making a big song and dance claiming he had given Rachel Reeves seat money- when it actually went to a neighbouring Tory held seat.

All very Westminster bubble and not huge but all three suggest he isn’t as strong as he is written to be (something that applies to every chancellor for the last 15 years. If you want to be a good PM you need to leave the treasury within 3 years!

Ah, that helps explain RR's one supposedly "dud" moment yesterday - when an interviewer used this as a "gotcha" and she appeared totally wrong-footed by it. We now know why - it never happened!

[Blair]

I see we’re at war with France.

[Blair]

In our defence it was ridiculous for them to threaten to turn the lights off in the Channel Island, but I don’t think Truss has handled it particularly deftly by recalling our ambassador. I think I actually represent the small chunk of people who detest both the French and British Governments.

She’s v similar to our last blonde shape shifting foreign Secretary. What joy.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

London Bridge about to collapse? Forth Bridge of course collapsed in April of this year.

[Silent Hunter]

London Bridge about to collapse? Forth Bridge of course collapsed in April of this year.

For those of you coming into the thread and confused about this; "London Bridge" is the supposed codename for the Queen's funeral plan. "Forth Bridge" was the one for Prince Philip.

In any event, the Queen is doing a lot better than many 95 year olds.

[Flyersfan232]

Regency act anyone?

[Silent Hunter]

Regency act anyone?

If it's needed, it's needed. But no sense speculating about it.

[Conservatopia]

When the inevitable happens I hope and expect that we get a ceremony and scenes similar to this:

The part with the cranes is rather moving I find.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its going to be one hell of an occasion for sure.

[Torrain]

Whenever the Queen seems frail, I look at Charles and the constitutional and media chaos that will surround the succession. The fights over whether Camilla should be Queen, the gaffe-prone King, the squabbling over coronation costs and invitations. Parliament being summoned to swear fealty, etc. Another round of Diana discourse. It may be a disruptive and divisive period.

God Save The Queen indeed.