UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero
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  UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero
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Author Topic: UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero  (Read 283727 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1675 on: March 05, 2021, 08:26:09 AM »

I can't work out how much of this is Labour having a very bad month, the Lib Dems continuing to be a non-entity or just the Government doing well as a result of the vaccination, the unlocking road-map & the Budget.

Labour's blundering in the run up to the Budget was totally avoidable (and thus unforgiveable)

Whatever galaxy brain wonks advised the leadership saying what they did about CT would be a good idea, need to be given some "interesting" filing to do tout court.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #1676 on: March 05, 2021, 03:44:51 PM »

And surely nobody actually thinks many of those uprooted by this are going to *actually live* in Darlington?

Do they??

Some might well live south of the river, in the constituency of... oh ffs.
*checks map*

*double checks*

...

ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1677 on: March 05, 2021, 04:16:39 PM »

While the result is unlikely to last, why are greens polling so high?
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Cassius
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« Reply #1678 on: March 05, 2021, 04:28:00 PM »

While the result is unlikely to last, why are greens polling so high?

They’ve been bouncing around for a while at about 3-7% so I think that a lot of it can be explained by margin of error noise and differences in methodology between the various polling companies. Despite that, they are getting quite a lot of sixes and sevens at the moment, so I’d hazard a guess that they’re getting some protest votes from people on the left who would normally (and probably will) vote Labour but are dissatisfied with the current direction under Starmer (from a brief scan of the polls the ones with the highest Green shares tend to be ones with lower Labour figures). This can work the other way; anecdotally I’m aware of some Labour voters who couldn’t stomach the state of the party under Corbyn voting Green as a protest, even though the Greens were very much simpatico with the policies that Labour ran with in the 2019 general election.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if they were picking up some of the ‘plague-on-all-your-houses’ protest votes that in the past have gone to UKIP and the Lib Dems.

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cp
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« Reply #1679 on: March 06, 2021, 04:13:18 AM »

While the result is unlikely to last, why are greens polling so high?

They’ve been bouncing around for a while at about 3-7% so I think that a lot of it can be explained by margin of error noise and differences in methodology between the various polling companies. Despite that, they are getting quite a lot of sixes and sevens at the moment, so I’d hazard a guess that they’re getting some protest votes from people on the left who would normally (and probably will) vote Labour but are dissatisfied with the current direction under Starmer (from a brief scan of the polls the ones with the highest Green shares tend to be ones with lower Labour figures). This can work the other way; anecdotally I’m aware of some Labour voters who couldn’t stomach the state of the party under Corbyn voting Green as a protest, even though the Greens were very much simpatico with the policies that Labour ran with in the 2019 general election.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if they were picking up some of the ‘plague-on-all-your-houses’ protest votes that in the past have gone to UKIP and the Lib Dems.



Yeah, that sounds about right. I wouldn't count too heavily on disaffected lefties voting Labour any time soon though, at least not without a major course correction from Starmer. There's a genuine sense of Starmer, or at any rate the people around him, are so preternaturally (and irredeemably) New Labour that there's no point trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. The embarrassment of the corporation tax debate is case in point.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1680 on: March 06, 2021, 05:06:34 AM »

Re "course correction" - we might have seen a bit of that in the last few days. There is definitely some recognition that trying to be so "clever" over tax in the run up to the Budget was a fiasco.
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beesley
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« Reply #1681 on: March 06, 2021, 09:06:37 AM »


Yeah, that sounds about right. I wouldn't count too heavily on disaffected lefties voting Labour any time soon though, at least not without a major course correction from Starmer. There's a genuine sense of Starmer, or at any rate the people around him, are so preternaturally (and irredeemably) New Labour that there's no point trying to give them the benefit of the doubt. The embarrassment of the corporation tax debate is case in point.

My reason for not supporting him is that he isn't a visionary making any effort to oppose the government in the public sphere, and for supporting the government because it's easier in his view.  Starmer doesn't try to make anything stick and someone is obviously advising him not to adopt positions of any kind. This will not necessarily alienate all people on the Corbynite left and many will vote for him, but they will be alienated by image problems ('Keir Starmer is a Tory'). Whilst Corbyn's policies were not perfect and would need amendment or some moderation if he took office they were not the reason why he lost. Starmer doesn't deserve my vote, in short.
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Blair
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« Reply #1682 on: March 06, 2021, 12:48:15 PM »

I can't work out how much of this is Labour having a very bad month, the Lib Dems continuing to be a non-entity or just the Government doing well as a result of the vaccination, the unlocking road-map & the Budget.

Labour's blundering in the run up to the Budget was totally avoidable (and thus unforgiveable)

Whatever galaxy brain wonks advised the leadership saying what they did about CT would be a good idea, need to be given some "interesting" filing to do tout court.

In my view it happened because we've got a shadow treasury who aren't particularly experienced combined with a Leaders Office who think everything is a trap.

It was more so frustrating as there was a relatively lukewarm (in a good way) line that the Budget was going to be bad because of the Council tax rise & universal credit cuts- which could be crudely seen as being bad for the economy; but someone thought that corporation tax was in the same category as this.

I mean I know it's even more wonkish but they could have easily pivoted to a line saying 'corporation tax rise is good, but exclude SMEs/Limited companies'. The self-employed should be ripe picking for Labour...
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Cassius
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« Reply #1683 on: March 06, 2021, 06:02:11 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2021, 06:05:43 PM by Cassius »

Nigel Farage has resigned as Reform UK leader. Not particularly surprising given the party’s failure to make hay over the government’s COVID policy, but I suspect he may have been pushed out by/come to a gentleman’s agreement with Richard Tice, who will now assume the leadership.

I’m sure he’ll be back as soon as the bar tab needs topping up.
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Blair
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« Reply #1684 on: March 06, 2021, 06:24:31 PM »

Laurence Fox, the TV detective from Lewis, is running for Mayor of London.

He joins as amusing list that includes the Jeremy Corbyn's brother, an investment banker with a podcast & a Tory candidate who has offended virtually every demographic in London.


Nigel Farage has resigned as Reform UK leader. Not particularly surprising given the party’s failure to make hay over the government’s COVID policy, but I suspect he may have been pushed out by/come to a gentleman’s agreement with Richard Tice, who will now assume the leadership.

I’m sure he’ll be back as soon as the bar tab needs topping up.

Isn't this his 5th time quitting frontline politics?
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Cassius
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« Reply #1685 on: March 06, 2021, 06:33:13 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2021, 06:38:50 PM by Cassius »

Fourth I believe (there was the 2015 un-resignation resignation, the ‘I want my life back’ resignation of Summer 2016 and the resignation after he temporarily resumed the UKIP leadership following the Diane James farrago); I do think that Tice might finally be the person able to fill the long-prophesied ‘successor to Farage’ role that the right-of-the-right has been searching for since 2016, so I predict that this may actually be Farage’s last resignation.

If I still lived in London I think I’d give Fox a vote even if he is a prick, out of respect for his role in Lewis. Tough choice though given the true smorgasbord of high quality minor-party and independent candidates standing for the post.
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beesley
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« Reply #1686 on: March 07, 2021, 07:41:12 AM »

If I still lived in London I think I’d give Fox a vote even if he is a prick, out of respect for his role in Lewis. Tough choice though given the true smorgasbord of high quality minor-party and independent candidates standing for the post.

I remember thinking in 2016 that there was a weird selection of candidates (especially the bizarre Ankit Love and his One Love Party) but they've outdone themselves this time. The mayoralty has a tendency to attract people running on policies that are completely beyond the jurisdiction of the office, presumably because they think it gives them a personal platform to the whole city.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1687 on: March 07, 2021, 10:01:55 AM »

Isn't this his 5th time quitting frontline politics?

Yes, but he really means it this time.

Or so he says.
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Blair
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« Reply #1688 on: March 07, 2021, 12:17:30 PM »

If I still lived in London I think I’d give Fox a vote even if he is a prick, out of respect for his role in Lewis. Tough choice though given the true smorgasbord of high quality minor-party and independent candidates standing for the post.

I remember thinking in 2016 that there was a weird selection of candidates (especially the bizarre Ankit Love and his One Love Party) but they've outdone themselves this time. The mayoralty has a tendency to attract people running on policies that are completely beyond the jurisdiction of the office, presumably because they think it gives them a personal platform to the whole city.

If you're very bored & have no life (like me!) its quite fun to go through the manifestos of even the main parties & try and find the policies that the Mayor actually has the power to do.

It's great that London finally joined the 20th century in getting a Mayor but it's stupid how little powers the role has.
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Blair
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« Reply #1689 on: March 08, 2021, 02:43:22 AM »

Well the NHS pay rise is out of the news for the next week.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1690 on: March 08, 2021, 07:11:28 AM »

Well the NHS pay rise is out of the news for the next week.

This may be over pessimistic, but yeah.
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« Reply #1691 on: March 08, 2021, 08:46:53 PM »

Emma Hardy has quit her position as Shadow Further Education and Universities Minister, citing the workload caused by the government's handling of the pandemic.

Quote
A Labour MP has resigned her shadow ministerial post citing an increase in her constituency work during lockdown.

Emma Hardy said due to the coronavirus pandemic the number of people seeking her help had "risen dramatically".

The Hull West and Hessle MP was appointed as the shadow further education and universities minister last year after Sir Keir Starmer was elected party leader.

In her resignation letter she said she was leaving with a "heavy heart".

Ms Hardy blamed the government's handling of the pandemic for "taking a heavy toll on the place I love".

"In the past year, the number of residents contacting me needing help and support has risen dramatically; I was elected as their representative and their needs will always come first," she said.

Ms Hardy added: "I will no longer be able to give the role of shadow minister the time it deserves."
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Coldstream
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« Reply #1692 on: March 09, 2021, 05:42:17 AM »

Nigel Farage has resigned as Reform UK leader. Not particularly surprising given the party’s failure to make hay over the government’s COVID policy, but I suspect he may have been pushed out by/come to a gentleman’s agreement with Richard Tice, who will now assume the leadership.

I’m sure he’ll be back as soon as the bar tab needs topping up.

I met Tice at an event in 2019. He’s smart and charismatic, and not someone to be written off immediately like say Paul Nuttall or Gerard Batten. But I doubt that he’s someone able to make a huge impact. I can’t see there being many people who’d prefer him to Boris Johnson when countering in the risk of letting Labour in through the middle as happened across the North in 2019.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1693 on: March 09, 2021, 08:15:30 AM »

Nigel Farage has resigned as Reform UK leader. Not particularly surprising given the party’s failure to make hay over the government’s COVID policy, but I suspect he may have been pushed out by/come to a gentleman’s agreement with Richard Tice, who will now assume the leadership.

I’m sure he’ll be back as soon as the bar tab needs topping up.

I met Tice at an event in 2019. He’s smart and charismatic, and not someone to be written off immediately like say Paul Nuttall or Gerard Batten. But I doubt that he’s someone able to make a huge impact. I can’t see there being many people who’d prefer him to Boris Johnson when countering in the risk of letting Labour in through the middle as happened across the North in 2019.

Well that assumes a few things, not least that Johnson is still going to be there at the next GE.

At present, the openings for a "populist right" outfit a la peak UKIP are indeed limited - and that may well have played a part in Farage's latest decision. This may not always be so, however.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1694 on: March 09, 2021, 12:53:38 PM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnmcdonnellMP/status/1369337586746023942

No constitutional dissent allowed in a party that used to accommodate both Dewar and Dalyell.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #1695 on: March 09, 2021, 05:20:43 PM »

Nigel Farage has resigned as Reform UK leader. Not particularly surprising given the party’s failure to make hay over the government’s COVID policy, but I suspect he may have been pushed out by/come to a gentleman’s agreement with Richard Tice, who will now assume the leadership.

I’m sure he’ll be back as soon as the bar tab needs topping up.

I met Tice at an event in 2019. He’s smart and charismatic, and not someone to be written off immediately like say Paul Nuttall or Gerard Batten. But I doubt that he’s someone able to make a huge impact. I can’t see there being many people who’d prefer him to Boris Johnson when countering in the risk of letting Labour in through the middle as happened across the North in 2019.

Well that assumes a few things, not least that Johnson is still going to be there at the next GE.

At present, the openings for a "populist right" outfit a la peak UKIP are indeed limited - and that may well have played a part in Farage's latest decision. This may not always be so, however.

I see no reason, besides wishful thinking, to believe he won’t be. The Tories haven’t forgotten that before he became leader they were fourth in the national polls and facing oblivion. And Johnson has largely kept his personal ratings intact since then. They simply don’t have anyone more electable than him.
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Cassius
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« Reply #1696 on: March 09, 2021, 05:36:53 PM »

Yeah, I think now that Johnson’s survived the Winter of Our Discontent he should be fine, barring some major catastrophe/scandal emerging in the next three years. I still think that there’s every possibility that he decides to call it quits at some point in the lifetime of this parliament and goes back to writing columns and having books ghostwritten for him, since I don’t think he really has any aims in politics besides being an election winning Prime Minister (which he’s now achieved). If he stood down, say, at the end of the year or some time in 2022, he’d have presided over Brexit and a successful roll out of the COVID vaccine, in addition to, hopefully, the country returning to some sort of economic normality. He could easily say he was standing down to ‘spend more time with the family after three hard years’ and if he did so he’d probably be remembered (by conservative Britain at least) as the best Conservative PM since Thatcher. Not a bad prospect for him really.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1697 on: March 09, 2021, 05:51:54 PM »

So, Piers Morgan has left Good Morning Britain. Good riddance.
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beesley
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« Reply #1698 on: March 09, 2021, 06:08:21 PM »

Yeah, I think now that Johnson’s survived the Winter of Our Discontent he should be fine, barring some major catastrophe/scandal emerging in the next three years. I still think that there’s every possibility that he decides to call it quits at some point in the lifetime of this parliament and goes back to writing columns and having books ghostwritten for him, since I don’t think he really has any aims in politics besides being an election winning Prime Minister (which he’s now achieved). If he stood down, say, at the end of the year or some time in 2022, he’d have presided over Brexit and a successful roll out of the COVID vaccine, in addition to, hopefully, the country returning to some sort of economic normality. He could easily say he was standing down to ‘spend more time with the family after three hard years’ and if he did so he’d probably be remembered (by conservative Britain at least) as the best Conservative PM since Thatcher. Not a bad prospect for him really.

I got the sense that he never really recovered after getting COVID and the whole thing has dampened his desire for the job (which was limited since he has no real long-term policy goals). Better for him to bow out gracefully.

If he's the best conservative PM since Thatcher, it's because the competition was incredibly weak.

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Cassius
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« Reply #1699 on: March 09, 2021, 06:43:40 PM »

Yeah, I think now that Johnson’s survived the Winter of Our Discontent he should be fine, barring some major catastrophe/scandal emerging in the next three years. I still think that there’s every possibility that he decides to call it quits at some point in the lifetime of this parliament and goes back to writing columns and having books ghostwritten for him, since I don’t think he really has any aims in politics besides being an election winning Prime Minister (which he’s now achieved). If he stood down, say, at the end of the year or some time in 2022, he’d have presided over Brexit and a successful roll out of the COVID vaccine, in addition to, hopefully, the country returning to some sort of economic normality. He could easily say he was standing down to ‘spend more time with the family after three hard years’ and if he did so he’d probably be remembered (by conservative Britain at least) as the best Conservative PM since Thatcher. Not a bad prospect for him really.

I got the sense that he never really recovered after getting COVID and the whole thing has dampened his desire for the job (which was limited since he has no real long-term policy goals). Better for him to bow out gracefully.

If he's the best conservative PM since Thatcher, it's because the competition was incredibly weak.



No doubt about the weakness of the competition, but I feel if he left within the next year he’d be able to carve out a good reputation for himself on the right of politics, especially if things went south for the Conservative party after his leaving the leadership.

I’m inclined to be sceptical of the after effects of COVID being a reason for him wanting to quit though. It’s certainly a good excuse for quitting, but I feel like he’s much more likely to quit because being PM is a hard and (mostly) thankless job where his capacity to ‘be himself’ (whatever that means) is considerably curtailed. He’ll have a lot more freedom and will be able to make a lot more money once he leaves office, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he quit now that he’s ticked being PM, winning a big election victory and notching up a few achievements in office off of the bucket list. Getting out early and thus avoiding being widely despised would be a bonus on top of these.
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