UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[CumbrianLefty]

No doubt in a desperate attempt to distract from this ...

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1322213828600438785

Well, that polling hadn't even emerged at the time of the earlier post - so not really.

But yes, it is interesting. And should serve as a corrective to some of the more simplistic "takes".

[Blair]

In news it appears that because the decision to impose a lockdown has leaked they're going to possibly bring it forward; I assume out of the fear that people will spend the next 5 days like it's the last days of rome.

I can't see this decision doing much good politically for the Prime Minister; he was told by Labour & SAGE to do a circuit breaker to prevent this (he didn't) & he's going to have a lot of angry Tory MPs even if the Chancellor can stuff their mouth with gold.

[CumbrianLefty]

BBC banning staff from Pride as it could breach impartiality rules.

Good grief

Completely unenforceable, u-turn likely on its way within days.

Though it does show how much the upper echelons of the Beeb have been infected by the poisonous "balance is giving as much coverage to falsehood/evil as true/good" mindset.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Genuinely surprised at the level of vitriol from Tory MPs at this announcement

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1322619848267079685

https://twitter.com/johnjohnstonmi/status/1322651054316670980?s=19

I thought there was absolutely no way a Prime Minister could be overthrown a year after winning an 80-seat majority, but here we are....

[Storr]

Genuinely surprised at the level of vitriol from Tory MPs at this announcement

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1322619848267079685


I thought there was absolutely no way a Prime Minister could be overthrown a year after winning an 80-seat majority, but here we are....

"This could be his Suez" is the something so ridiculous it makes sense it would come from out of touch anonymous Tory MPs.

Thank you Tories for reminding me the Conservative Party is almost as bad as the Republicans.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

"This could be his Suez" is the something so ridiculous it makes sense it would come from out of touch anonymous Tories.

It's an occasional metaphor in UK politics?

[brucejoel99]

"This could be his Suez" is the something so ridiculous it makes sense it would come from out of touch anonymous Tories.

It's an occasional metaphor in UK politics?

Not to mention, this - if anything - is worse than Suez.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though it must be said Tory MPs do seem to have been more talk than action up to now.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Worth noting that a) whilst anti-lockdown feeling is fairly strong amongst Tory members, it's very weak amongst Tory voters and b) UKIP/Brexit Party are still getting a negligible share of the vote, so there's less obvious pressure for Johnson to move right. The backbenches are fractious but not yet mutinous.

[Blair]

Robert Syms has become one of those MPs who tweets as if he's a Tory Association Chair rather than an MP... which is actually quite interesting at times.

FWIW as much as I find the Suez example a bit overused (everything is Suez in the same way everything in Labour is a Clause IV moment) it's certainly true that on the current trends the local elections next year could be very tough; a clobbering in London, a loss of some of the 2017 high watermark councils & even an upset in the West Midlands Metro mayor could get people talking...

It's however unclear if they'll go ahead & how they'll work (I assume they should be able to work if we just use postal votes on mass+social distancing polling stations)

And even after then it's a big jump to say they'll get rid of Boris; Cameron, Blair & Brown all had awful local elections and only Brown faced a half baked coup. I think a much more likely situation is Boris quitting...

[CumbrianLefty]

He may still hope things will get better for him once this is "over".

Might be worth thinking about Autumn 2022 as a possible handover point assuming that events don't get him first - he would then have surpassed May's time as PM (which would appeal to his sense of vanity) and from a more general Tory standpoint it means we might not be too tired of his successor before a 2024 GE. But as I said, actual stuff could easily change all that.

[Storr]

"This could be his Suez" is the something so ridiculous it makes sense it would come from out of touch anonymous Tories.

It's an occasional metaphor in UK politics?

Ah, so it's like "This could be his/her Watergate" in the US politics (even if the particular situation being compared is nothing like Watergate).

[vileplume]

Something I truly do not understand is why so many politicians on the left seem to utterly despise the interests of young people, a voting bloc which is regularly among the most reliable for the left. Every other bloc seems to get so many concessions, but the youth just consistently get spit on. If this didn't happen so regularly, it's easy to imagine that youth turnout would be much, much higher across the board.

Labour did do very well amongst the youth and they did have pretty good turnout (Putney, which was the only seat Labour gained is a very young seat that had a very good turnout increase) it's just they got absolutely obliterated with the elderly, almost certainly the worst Labour performance with that group since 1918 when they were still a third party.

Here's the vote by age group for reference (from YouGov):
18-24: Labour +35
25-29: Labour +31
30-39: Labour +16
40-49: Tory +6
50-59: Tory +21
60-69: Tory +35
70+: Tory +53

Even with the best youth turnout that you could possibly hope for, there's simply no way Labour could win an election with the over 60s going for the Tories by such a mammoth margin.

[King of Kensington]

Worth noting that a) whilst anti-lockdown feeling is fairly strong amongst Tory members, it's very weak amongst Tory voters and b) UKIP/Brexit Party are still getting a negligible share of the vote, so there's less obvious pressure for Johnson to move right. The backbenches are fractious but not yet mutinous.

What's the profile of the typical Tory member? A "rowdy" patrician?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

FWIW as much as I find the Suez example a bit overused (everything is Suez in the same way everything in Labour is a Clause IV moment) it's certainly true that on the current trends the local elections next year could be very tough; a clobbering in London, a loss of some of the 2017 high watermark councils & even an upset in the West Midlands Metro mayor could get people talking...

I think Black Wednesday could be a better analogy to this than Suez, if that's not being too optimistic.

Anyway, interesting that Starmer is training more fire on Sunak now

https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1323230534206689281

[Silent Hunter]

With Sunak as the heir apparent, it's not especially surprising. Johnson's political authority is likely gone, especially if he gets lockdown 2 through on Labour votes. The men in grey suits may visit pretty soon.

It is starting to looking like cases in the UK are plateauing and so lockdown will have an easier time of geting R below 1.

[CumbrianLefty]

With Sunak as the heir apparent, it's not especially surprising. Johnson's political authority is likely gone, especially if he gets lockdown 2 through on Labour votes. The men in grey suits may visit pretty soon.

It is starting to looking like cases in the UK are plateauing and so lockdown will have an easier time of geting R below 1.

Not before Brexit is finally "done" (I know) and almost certainly not before May's elections either.

[Conservatopia]

As much as I (and others on the right) wish Johnson gone it will only happen if it looks like we will lose the next General Election.  Don't forget that during the omnishambles in 2012 Cameron was criticized harshly but there was still no real challenge to his position.

And more than 50 MPs need to write letters before a challenge takes place.  We are at about 11 at the very most and 2 at least.

I don't see Johnson leaving unwillingly before 2024.

[CumbrianLefty]

Au contraire, I find it distinctly hard to see him still being there in 2024. Those recent newspaper pieces about how hard he finds the job (and the low pay!) weren't printed by accident, you know.

[Zinneke]

Rory Stewart's dismantling of the Johnson character is something to behold :

https://www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/boris-johnson-tom-bower-book-review-rory-stewart/

[Kingpoleon]

If Johnson goes down, I can’t imagine anyone would really want to hold a title as cursed as the Conservative’s Leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

The government used yesterday's big news to "cover" an announcement that they have caved in over free school meals in holiday periods until the spring. Leaving all those Tory MPs who earnestly told us MAKING KIDS GO HUNGRY IS GOOD ACTUALLY, COS SELF RELIANCE looking a tad exposed.

[Blair]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/nov/10/fa-chairman-greg-clarke-resigns-after-unacceptable-comments

[CumbrianLefty]

BoJo seems to have thrown Trump under the bus. Which is something.

[brucejoel99]

BoJo seems to have thrown Trump under the bus. Which is something.

Under a homemade, hand-painted model bus made out of wooden wine boxes, or the £350M/wk. for the NHS bus?