UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Snouts in the trough.

[Blair]

I would go into some sort of rant about how unsuitable these two are & the threat it poses to the BBC (at a time when we're getting SS-GB news) but frankly the political coverage provided by the BBC at the last election was so laughable & Ofcom are so useless I doubt this will have a big impact on our wider politics.

[CumbrianLefty]

The new Opinium poll has (to use the parlance) dropped - Lab 42 Con 39.

First lead for the red team in over a year.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I agree that this is bigger than the topline figure

https://twitter.com/jmagosh/status/1309933571780628481?s=21

[Blair]

Not a surprise as successive polls have had a tie but this will cause a great deal of relief for Starmers project & will make Tory MPs who've had an awful summer even more likely to start chatting about when to push Bojo out.

[brucejoel99]

Keir we go.

[Silent Hunter]

The election is over three years away though under the Fixed Term Parliament Act rules - it has to be 2 May 2024 unless 2/3 of the Commons agree. Of course, Johnson or his successor could just change the Act again as happened in 2019.

Repeal was a manifesto commitment, but the idea is on the back burner at the moment.

[Angel of Death]

Conservatives have zero incentive to call for an early election, especially considering the healthy majority they're currently enjoying. That means they will fully own whatever fallout Brexit will bring after the end of the transition period.

[Silent Hunter]

Thatcher went early in 1987 despite a majority much bigger than Johnson's 78.

[Blair]

I wouldn't put much thought into election dates; they tend to generally be driven by much larger events that will play a bigger role than the timing of the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voting intention surveys are essentially asking not so much a hypothetical situation as a fantasy one at the moment, but this is significant simply because it punctures the air of hubristic arrogance and endless crowing that has built up over the past year. Which is something that will have consequences. I think an awareness that this would be a significant moment and a slight nervousness about that explains the surreal herding we've seen in recent polling figures. Rubicon crossed now, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

Two other polls this weekend have the Tories still leading, so let's not get too excited just yet. Though the direction of travel seems fairly clear now.

[Silent Hunter]

Remember that Corbyn had poll leads in July 2019 too.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Those were of a different character though - there the Labour lead was simply a function of the Tory vote share having collapsed slightly faster.

If you must draw a comparison, the poll leads in 2017 are a better parallel.

[Blair]

It's interesting as this is used as a takeway by some (including myself) as something to point to when people ask what Starmer is doing right but really the fact that the Government managed to squander a what 25+ lead in the polls that they had in March?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It's interesting as this is used as a takeway by some (including myself) as something to point to when people ask what Starmer is doing right but really the fact that the Government managed to squander a what 25+ lead in the polls that they had in March?

That was obviously in large part an unsustainable sympathy bump for Boris in hospital.

[Blair]

It's interesting as this is used as a takeway by some (including myself) as something to point to when people ask what Starmer is doing right but really the fact that the Government managed to squander a what 25+ lead in the polls that they had in March?

That was obviously in large part an unsustainable sympathy bump for Boris in hospital.

Wasn't it pre-hospital as well?

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but it reached its absolute peak afterwards.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54369002

The prime minister's father, Stanley Johnson, has been pictured shopping without a face covering, breaking current Covid-19 restrictions.

Mr Johnson - a former Tory MEP - has apologised, claiming he may not be "100% up to speed" with current rules after returning from abroad.

Fines for not wearing a covering in a shop were raised by the government last week to £200 for first time offenders.

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has also apologised for breaking the rules.

He was pictured at a dinner party which appeared to have nine guests, going against the government's "rule of six".

Asked about the pictures, Boris Johnson's official spokesman said it was now for the police to "determine what action to take", adding: "What the prime minister is clear on is that the rules apply for everyone and everyone should follow them".

[Silent Hunter]

An SNP MP has decided to join the proverbial party as well

[Cassius]

By-election time maybe?

[DaWN]

I think a by-election in this seat is a win-win for Labour actually. Lose the by-election, that's surely the final straw for Leonard and they can get someone slightly less sh!t with haste. Win the by-election... well then they've won, haven't they?

I don't think she'll actually resign though. There's nothing stopping a disgraced MP sitting out the parliament as an independent if they want.

[YL]

I think a by-election in this seat is a win-win for Labour actually. Lose the by-election, that's surely the final straw for Leonard and they can get someone slightly less sh!t with haste. Win the by-election... well then they've won, haven't they?

I don't think she'll actually resign though. There's nothing stopping a disgraced MP sitting out the parliament as an independent if they want.

Indeed.  (Speaking as a Sheffield Hallam resident.)

There's a tendency to overestimate the chances of a by-election when something like this happens.  Maybe she will go (the SNP definitely seem to have abandoned her) but she may well just hang on as an Independent and it's very unlikely the case reaches any of the thresholds for recall petitions.

[afleitch]

Given that it's my hometown seat in question, if she does step down I would expect the SNP to pick it up again. There's nothing more the SNP can do than remove the whip and they do take these things seriously.

[YL]

Given that it's my hometown seat in question, if she does step down I would expect the SNP to pick it up again. There's nothing more the SNP can do than remove the whip and they do take these things seriously.

Interested in the SNP nomination?