UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Blair]

We do have maybe the worst "free press" anywhere. And this ties in with our outgoing PM being not just a "journalist" in that same press but a *columnist* - maybe the lowest lifeform of all.

An increasing trend is columnists or talking heads who even I struggle to remember why they’re in that position; often opining on matters where they know no more than the person in the dog and duck, but where they act as if they’re an oracle.

[CumbrianLefty]

And there are the "assume the opposite of whatever they say" scribes, eg Simon Jenkins.

[Storr]

Thoughtful analysis:

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1551863462720143361?s=20&t=LgP04hnH...

[Silent Hunter]

I would point out that the Chancellor lives in Downing Street, just like the PM. And in fact lives the flat above Number 10 as every PM since Blair has preferred to use the bigger one above Number 11.

[MABA 2020]

I don't have a very high opinion of the Tory membership, but this clearly isn't true and Sunaks ethnicity isn't a factor in why he's probably going to lose.

[rc18]

And of course the new inhabitant of Number 11 Downing Street is an Iraqi Kurd...

[CumbrianLefty]

No photo-op of BoJo with the Lionesses yet? That's not really like him......

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No photo-op of BoJo with the Lionesses yet? That's not really like him......

Wasn't at the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games either, which has been noticed locally.

[Torrain]

General Election polling is all over the map at the moment. If you go by the most recent release for each of the major pollsters, you get the following:

• YouGov: 1%
• Opinium: 3%
• Redfield: 4%
• Techne: 7%
• Deltapoll: 11%
• ComRes: 13%
• Ipsos MORI: 14%

Not sure if this is a product of wonky poll methodology, or just general uncertainty amid the current interregnum we seem to be in, with the ‘caretaker’ cabinet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Different methodologies are one factor, but there are also some polls there with obvious bad samples (e.g. the most recent YouGov one). But polling over the Summer months tends to be a little pointless anyway.

[Pericles]

Jeremy Corbyn urges West to stop arming Ukraine

F**k this guy, might even have been a good thing that Boris won.

[ingemann]

I don't have a very high opinion of the Tory membership, but this clearly isn't true and Sunaks ethnicity isn't a factor in why he's probably going to lose.

I find it pretty interesting, this total denial in thinking that Sunak’s ethnicity could play a role in both his leadership campaign and the general election. I saw a similarity in the Brexit referendum, where British pundits analysis was that the British xenophobia extended to East European but not to Commonwealth citizens, while I think it was pretty clear that normal British xenophobes extend their views to all foreigners not just to acceptable targets like white foreigners.

[Blair]

No photo-op of BoJo with the Lionesses yet? That's not really like him......

He has been quite open about not liking football in the past which is much better than pretending to like it but equally makes it somehow worse he didn’t go and that he’s made no effort for a reception etc.

[DINGO Joe]

Jeremy Corbyn urges West to stop arming Ukraine

F**k this guy, might even have been a good thing that Boris won.

Well, it's not a good thing that Boris won, but it was a bad thing that Corbyn was his opponent.

[rc18]

Jeremy Corbyn urges West to stop arming Ukraine

F**k this guy, might even have been a good thing that Boris won.

After Boris was defenestrated you had a lot of comments along the line of "It doesn't matter who the UK PM is, they'll always support Ukraine". Lots of people saying this sh**t didn't seem to realise the the irony in the fact that they voted for Corbyn...

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't have a very high opinion of the Tory membership, but this clearly isn't true and Sunaks ethnicity isn't a factor in why he's probably going to lose.

I find it pretty interesting, this total denial in thinking that Sunak’s ethnicity could play a role in both his leadership campaign and the general election. I saw a similarity in the Brexit referendum, where British pundits analysis was that the British xenophobia extended to East European but not to Commonwealth citizens, while I think it was pretty clear that normal British xenophobes extend their views to all foreigners not just to acceptable targets like white foreigners.

Racism - in all its forms - *was* a significant driver of Brexit support (though equally, racists weren't enough alone for them to actually win) but I remain sceptical it is a major factor in Sunak bombing. Indeed, in the absence of anything else many Tories would see the first ever non-white PM as another very useful stick to beat Labour with (whereas they have already had 2 female premiers)

[Pulaski]

A truss is an old-fashioned medical advice designed to support a hernia.

Will the association with a discredited piece of equipment used for an unpleasant medical condition hurt Liz Truss in the polls?

Discuss with reference to ecraseurs and tobacco enemas.

[GenerationTerrorist]

Looks like the sh**t is really about to hit the economic fan in autumn/winter. Recession predicted for 12 months. The country is an absolute omnishambles at the moment.

[afleitch]

'Living of the Truss Fund' might end up being the new thread title btw.

[Blair]

As the forum's only Truss supporter I believe I should be the one to create and name the new thread. I think "In Liz we Truss" is the best but there's lots of others we could rotate through during her months in office.

Surely it has to be ‘this is a disgrace’

[MABA 2020]

Everything might seem like it's going terribly right now but don't worry, it'll feel so much worst when the Tories win the next election regardless

[DINGO Joe]

As the forum's only Truss supporter I believe I should be the one to create and name the new thread. I think "In Liz we Truss" is the best but there's lots of others we could rotate through during her months in office.

Surely it has to be ‘this is a disgrace’

I offer a slight amendment

‘This....Is....A....Disgrace.’

[Torrain]

Mixed set of polling from Ipsos-Mori today, with warnings for both major parties. 

Johnson's final PM satisfaction rating is 24%, a net rating of -45%, a worst net leaving rate than any PM than Thatcher (-46%).

Starmer isn't doing all that great at the minute though either - stuck on a -20% net approval rate, at 29% approval, and 49% dissatisfied. That's worse than the average LOTO (with a net -12% approval rating), and far weaker than the approvals of Blair and Cameron going into their election year, when both achieved net-positive ratings.

A clear majority stands in opposition to the current government being re-elected, but support for the Opposition to form the next government is still lukewarm.

Support for Labour to form the next government is higher than any time since 2010, but still lags far behind the support Cameron and Blair achieved in the run-up to their elections.

Obviously this is all academic at the moment. Fuel prices and the economic situation could put the government in a far worse position, or Truss could (less plausibly, but never say die) effectively claim Johnson's populist mantle, and claw back enough support for the government. Most PMs get a honeymoon - the question is whether Truss can pull polling back to parity, and whether this survives the forecasted economic turbulence.

Full write-up here: https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/majority-do-not-think-conservative-government-deserves-be-re-elected-public-remain-unsure-about

[afleitch]

Not terrible for Starmer.

37% 'ready' isn't bad compared to his predecessors particularly as the 'not ready' is low. Corbyn's score was the same for both elections despite one being significantly worse than the other.

[rc18]

The don't knows for Starmer are on average twice as large as for previous leaders, that suggests poor cut-through with the electorate. This relatively high don't know share has been persistent for years now and present among different pollsters. As we see with the satisfaction numbers, the general trend is that sentiment for Starmer gets worse over time; the don't knows are far more likely to break against than for.

His net support among Labour voters (+24) is only marginally higher than Boris' among Conservative voters even now (+19).

Labour's poll lead has more to do with Tory dissatisfaction with their party than any real interest in the electorate for a Labour government. As the GE draws closer disgruntled Tories are likely to drift back.

The Tories' most significant opponent will be the economy, not Starmer.