UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Conservatopia]

Take this with a pinch of salt but I know of an MP from the north (though not "red wall" whatever that means) who is suspect number one for leaving the party and possibly joining Labour, although that latter might be a stretch.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Take this with a pinch of salt but I know of an MP from the north (though not "red wall" whatever that means) who is suspect number one for leaving the party and possibly joining Labour, although that latter might be a stretch.

Tbh,I wonder if defectors would suffer an electoral penalty. Defecting from the Tories to Labour 2 years after being elected seems extremely craven and unprinciplied.

[YL]

I notice a bunch of other SNP MP's are being Tim Farroned in the light of the Roe v. Wade descion, namely the scottish finance minister Kate Forbes and John Mason. Not exactly great news for the party given the existing scandal.

Kate Forbes is a highlander, who was educated in the Gaelic school system, which has a high portion of quite socially-conservative Presbyterians from the Western Isles. Forbes herself is a member of the Free Church of Scotland, a small denomination who did not even use musical instruments during hymns, or sing anything other than the original biblical psalms until 2010. If you’re making assumptions about their position on contentious social issues, you’re probably not too far from the truth.

I knew a bunch of kids who grew up in the same environment, who I met either through Scripture Union, or university. As a rule, they’re lovely people, but if you get them onto any hot-topic social issues, some of them immediately transform into a slightly more compassionate version of the DUP. It can be quite jarring.

The SNP is odd like that. Independence has a broad constituency, so you get views ranging from Afleitch’s, all the way through to Western Islanders whose views are almost identical to Jacob Rees-Mogg’s on gay marriage and abortion.

It’s why, despite her high office, I don’t think Forbes would ever be a viable candidate for First Minister when Sturgeon goes. The political fight within the SNP alone, let alone the criticism from Labour and the Lib Dems would be too damaging for the party to pick her.

Don't expect to find an open shop on Lewis and Harris on a Sunday.  And of course the introduction of Sunday ferries to the islands was a source of considerable controversy.

Ian Blackford, the SNP's Westminster leader, also has some association with the Free Church, doesn't he? (Or is it a different Free Church in his case?)  He has a reasonably socially liberal voting record, though.

Of course there is a long-standing tradition that abortion, together with certain other "moral issues" are not party political in the UK, with Commons votes being unwhipped.  I think that's actually worked out fairly well for the most part.

[Torrain]

Ian Blackford, the SNP's Westminster leader, also has some association with the Free Church, doesn't he? (Or is it a different Free Church in his case?)  He has a reasonably socially liberal voting record, though.

Aye, in fact the church he attends on Skye (Duirinish Free Church of Scotland - part of the same denomination), wrote a public statement critical of him after he voted to permit abortion and same-sex marriage in Northern Ireland. They stated that he was in opposition to their theological position on both issues, but that any further discussions would happen in private with him, as a congregant.

[EastAnglianLefty]

We just seem to be stuck in a soup of rumours this week.

Building on what CumbrianLefty said, the Times is reporting that 30 MPs have resubmitted their 1922 letters since the confidence vote, all before the by-election results were known, with a second raft of letters expected after Tiverton was lost. Obviously that’s pretty toothless while the 1-year rule remains in place, but could become significant if a significant portion of the party puts them in, piling pressure on the committee for a rules change.

More dramatically (albeit implausibly), sources from both parties have said that a number of Red Wall MPs are actively considering defection, possibly as many as six. Labour sources are bragging about having an open line of communication between leadership and the wavering backbenchers, just like they established with Christian Wakeford.

Will be interested to see if any of this turns out to be substantiated.

Scepticism is warranted here I think.  There have only ever been five direct defections of MPs from Con to Lab (Alan Howarth, Shaun Woodward, Robert Jackson, Quentin Davies and Christian Wakeford) and defection rumours have a pretty low success rate.

Speaking of changes of party membership of MPs, Patrick Grady, MP for Glasgow North who has been caught up in a sexual harassment case, has suspended his SNP membership and is now sitting as an Independent.

And indeed if you thought a defection was likely then you wouldn't be bragging about it - I suspect this is more about fuelling speculation, suspicion and bad feeling within the parliamentary Conservative Party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Take this with a pinch of salt but I know of an MP from the north (though not "red wall" whatever that means) who is suspect number one for leaving the party and possibly joining Labour, although that latter might be a stretch.

Tbh,I wonder if defectors would suffer an electoral penalty. Defecting from the Tories to Labour 2 years after being elected seems extremely craven and unprinciplied.

Hmmm, not sure if that is how it actually works.

[YL]

Tbh,I wonder if defectors would suffer an electoral penalty. Defecting from the Tories to Labour 2 years after being elected seems extremely craven and unprinciplied.

Hmmm, not sure if that is how it actually works.

It's not really something there's much precedent for.  No defector from Con to Lab (or indeed the other way round) has ever attempted to defend their existing seat under their new colours, for reasons which are essentially obvious but which don't apply to Christian Wakeford.

Shaun Woodward, Alan Howarth and Reg Prentice all found new seats.  In Woodward's case there was certainly some controversy about his selection for St Helen's South and he underperformed in 2001, while Howarth was challenged in Newport East in 1997 by Arthur Scargill who saved his deposit.  Prentice seems to have done OK in Daventry though.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Though in Prentice's case the only candidate to his right was the National Front candidate, who wouldn't have appealed to most Conservative voters in Daventry, whereas voters in Newport East or St Helens South had the option of both the LDs and various minor-party Socialist candidates.

[Silent Hunter]

Churchill, who changed parties twice, sat for no less than five constituencies.

[Torrain]

The two new MPs have been sworn in (14.34-14.37 on BBC Parliament livestream).

Lightwood did the affirmation, and was accompanied by two Labour MPs - believe it two Sheffield MPs, one being woman of the hour, Louise Haigh, and the other was Olivia Blake.

Foord took the religious oath, and was accompanied by Ed Davey, and Lib Dem Chief Whip Wendy Chamberlain, who I believe was pretty involved in the race too.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Churchill, who changed parties twice, sat for no less than five constituencies.

I wonder why the UK is seemingly unique in having very little stigma against their politican carpetbagging.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Churchill, who changed parties twice, sat for no less than five constituencies.

I wonder why the UK is seemingly unique in having very little stigma against their politican carpetbagging.

I don't think this is true. Look at Canada.

[Torrain]

Churchill, who changed parties twice, sat for no less than five constituencies.

Some of Churchill’s constituency switches are wild. He was a representative for Dundee at one point.

Gladstone did the same thing, and seems to have used his choice of new constituencies to signal political change. When he shifted to the left and embraced electoral reform, he was kicked out of Oxford, and pitched up in Manchester, to local acclaim. After a brief break, he later returned to parliament via the Midlothian seat, using his celebrity and local sentiment to sweep the election in a surprise victory.

[YL]

Of course we currently have a politician who has stood under at least four labels and has sat as an MP for constituencies in Glasgow, London and Bradford, and has stood elsewhere as well...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think this is true. Look at Canada.

There's also France where politicians will sometimes even brag about being parachuted in to this or that constituency. It isn't as if Le Pen had any ties to Henin-Beaumont before she alighted on it as a perfect place to build a personal stronghold for a milder version of the FN and Francois Hollande probably couldn't have found Corrèze on a map before Mitterrand decided that he should run there. Of course the assumption is that, once successfully parachuted, one should then make an effort to bed-down, to become part of the local political and social establishment if possible. Which he certainly did.

German politicians can also be quite mobile, despite proportional representation: Scholz was a Hamburg MdB for years and then became the City State's Lord Mayor, but presently represents Potsdam in the Bundestag. As it happens he does actually live there now (moved when he became Finance Minister) but that's quite a trek. Merkel had no ties to Pomerania before she was elected for Stralsund and surrounds in 1990 - she did grow up in the north of Brandenburg, but that's still more than a hundred miles away. And then there are all those Westerners who ended up as the PMs of various Eastern states in the 90s...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course we currently have a politician who has stood under at least four labels and has sat as an MP for constituencies in Glasgow, London and Bradford, and has stood elsewhere as well...

His predecessor in Glasgow had previously sat for a seat in Birmingham and one in London and was actually Welsh.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Of course we currently have a politician who has stood under at least four labels and has sat as an MP for constituencies in Glasgow, London and Bradford, and has stood elsewhere as well...

His predecessor in Glasgow had previously sat for a seat in Birmingham and one in London and was actually Welsh.

And who are these people? Tried searching the Glasgow constituencies and couldn’t find someone that seemed to fit the bill.

[Torrain]

Debate on the second reading of the Northern Ireland Protocol bill is ongoing. Theresa May gave a quite eloquent speech on the likely illegality of the legislation, and Simon Hoare (another Conservative) implied that the whole situation had been purposefully pushed to the breaking point by Liz Truss to create sound bites for her inevitable leadership campaign. Both came out forcefully against the legislation.

Several speakers also seem to be calling the DUP’s bluff - inferring that their promise to return to power sharing if the bill passes is essentially worthless, and likely to be broken.

I’ll be interested to see what the final vote tallies look like - particularly whether there’s a substantial rebellion from the government backbenches.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course we currently have a politician who has stood under at least four labels and has sat as an MP for constituencies in Glasgow, London and Bradford, and has stood elsewhere as well...

His predecessor in Glasgow had previously sat for a seat in Birmingham and one in London and was actually Welsh.

And who are these people? Tried searching the Glasgow constituencies and couldn’t find someone that seemed to fit the bill.

George Galloway and Roy Jenkins.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Of course we currently have a politician who has stood under at least four labels and has sat as an MP for constituencies in Glasgow, London and Bradford, and has stood elsewhere as well...

His predecessor in Glasgow had previously sat for a seat in Birmingham and one in London and was actually Welsh.

And who are these people? Tried searching the Glasgow constituencies and couldn’t find someone that seemed to fit the bill.

George Galloway and Roy Jenkins.

Oh god. How could I forget about Galloway?!?

Much appreciated!

[afleitch]

To be fair up into relatively recently (and it's still the case in some seats) there was no difference or electoral penalty for having a 'working class' Scot, Yorkshireman etc represent a working class seat anywhere else in the country.

And while the UK had (and still has) less internal migration than say the US, it was probably more common during days of heavy industrialisation (I have family in County Durham for that reason). So an MP doing the same wasn't that unusual.

[Torrain]

Take this with a pinch of salt but I know of an MP from the north (though not "red wall" whatever that means) who is suspect number one for leaving the party and possibly joining Labour, although that latter might be a stretch.

There have been public denials of plans to defect from Dehenna Davidson and Caroline Nokes today, but neither of those MPs seen to fit the hints in your post. There’s a report in the Telegraph that three unnamed, male, Northern, Tory MPs are considering defections, so maybe it’s one of them?

I’ve got to say, if this is all a rumour, or opposition game, then Labour seem to have played it pretty effectively. Party sources fabricate a story about further defections, triggering Downing Street paranoia, and focusing unwanted attention on centrist Tories in marginal seats, who are forced to defend their role in the government amidst the ongoing scandals - possibly damaging their moderate credentials in the eyes of swing voters in the process.

Obviously- the odds of defections happening are low. But forcing marginal MPs to defend Johnson’s government still provides the opposition with pull-quotes for 2024 campaign literature, and possible TV clips for online advertising.

[Хahar 🤔]

Churchill, who changed parties twice, sat for no less than five constituencies.

I wonder why the UK is seemingly unique in having very little stigma against their politican carpetbagging.

I don't think this is true. Look at Canada.

The United States, as far as I can tell, is unusual in this regard. I can think of no other country with single-member districts where there is such a strong stigma against politicians contesting elections in a district that is not their home.

[LabourJersey]

Churchill, who changed parties twice, sat for no less than five constituencies.

I wonder why the UK is seemingly unique in having very little stigma against their politican carpetbagging.

I don't think this is true. Look at Canada.

The United States, as far as I can tell, is unusual in this regard. I can think of no other country with single-member districts where there is such a strong stigma against politicians contesting elections in a district that is not their home.

There's still a vestigial sense in American politics that Congress is a collection of representatives of states working together as a union. So in that sense it makes sense for voters to dislike the idea of candidates from other states coming in.

Another part of it is the unique negativity associated with "carpetbaggers" and people moving for political reasons during Reconstruction (hence why we use that term in the first place)!

[Blair]

It’s all very bound up in local politics and culture at the time- the hyper localisation of MPs has made it harder. They’re expected to do a lot more casework (bin collection, chase up visa application etc) than they were 50 years ago and to do local stuff.

Despite  very much casting himself as a ‘tooting boy’ I think Sadiq Khan could broadly expect to get selected in any safe Labour seat in London, if it was done with the aim of getting him a cabinet job (or as leader if he was popular enough)

There was talk of offering Ruth Davidson a seat in the shires- she would have won easily, but she didn’t want it because it went against her brand- it’s the same with Andy Burnham, who would be within his rights to go for any seat but will feel a need for it to be in Manchester.