UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[CumbrianLefty]

Its been compared by some to "wallpapergate" exactly a year ago. And if that is anything to go by the message is both difficult for "low information" voters to fully understand, and has been amplified too near to the actual elections to have any real impact. In hindsight, maybe the main effect of the wallpaper thing was that it was dimly recalled by some when Johnson was caught bang to rights six months later, and helped cement that sense of untrustworthiness. Its perhaps similar with Starmer - *if* he gets into a genuine mess later on, this might be recalled and used against him. But no, its not a game changer on its own - however fervently the likes of Dan Hodges and Harry Cole wish it.  

[Silent Hunter]

Some minor Conservative-created controversy over the decision to announce the opening date of the Elizabeth Line/Crossrail today.

[Torrain]

I still think beergate is a damp squib. If it had broken through, or additional Starmer events had come to light, it would be an uncomfortable one.

Starmer's appeal seems to increasingly be based on being the "only sensible, reliable guy in the room", a boring but competent opponent to Johnson. And until Labour have the bandwidth to promote their agenda, that's going to be the face of the party. Starmer being shown to be no better than Boris would demolish that argument, and make him essentially just a less interesting version of the PM.

But the timing is actually pretty awful. The story is going to be buried by the local results for a couple of days, then a few days of leadership and/or cabinet reshuffle speculation. And then we'll be heading towards the two by-elections.

There simply won't be the bandwidth, or airtime for the media to focus on it for now. I'd agree with CumbrianLefty that if Starmer has a personal scandal later on, it might add to the damage, but right now, it's going to be a footnote in a busy May.

[Torrain]

Also, anecdotal local elections news because I'm feeling proud of her - my environmentalist, but otherwise pretty politics-averse younger sister called me up this afternoon to ask for advice on how best to tactically vote in her ward. She might turn around and vote for the Greens, but I'm just thrilled she's getting involved, and putting serious thought into it.

I had to stop myself after I sent her links to the last couple of ward results and a full paragraph about the SNP-Lib Dem swing margin. She's a patient soul.

[Blair]

True to form ‘choppers’ from the Telegraph has a big exclusive on Starmer which he hyped up… which turned out to be well nothing other than an ex copper saying they should investigate him.

[Blair]

I used his nickname to show how stupid the lobby is at times.

[Blair]

Goal posts already being moved to say no matter the result today they won’t ditch Boris and it will be after Wakefield… I remember when the locals were going to be the trigger point.

[CumbrianLefty]

And after Wakefield/Tiverton it will likely be something else - maybe *next year's* locals?

[Torrain]

This sign has apprently been spotted in a Camden polling station:


Ironic reminder of the dual function our civic centres now play, or breach of election rules about political advocacy inside polling stations? Whatever your opinion, there's someone on social media screaming it.

Guess people have to do something in the last hour while we wait for the polls to close...

[Torrain]

The Telegraph is reporting that Durham Police is going to investigate the Keir Starmer beer event.

Christopher Hope is being insufferable about it online. If I hear it described as a “gamechanger” one more time… It just looks like peak cope. He keeps nattering on about how badly Starmer will regret asking for Sunak to resign over the birthday cake incident, and dreaming about both major parties having new leaders by the autumn.

It’s sort of embarrassing watching a man in his 50s “coping” this hard.

[CumbrianLefty]

Let's be clear, if Starmer doesn't get a clean bill of health over this it *will* be rather difficult for him.

[TheTide]

Whatever happens, Johnson is probably off the hook (on this particular issue).

[CumbrianLefty]

Whatever happens, Johnson is probably off the hook (on this particular issue).

More fines very plausibly to come for him, Starmer could yet be largely/wholly cleared (especially if you suspect the Durham police may have bowed to political/media pressure here)?

Potentially not over by a long chalk.

[MillennialModerate]

Ugh of course. Starmer is finished.

He’s my favorite British leader since Blair (although I liked Cameron) so it’s unfortunate - especially considering I don’t know who else for Labour could possibly win a general election

[CumbrianLefty]

There are several other possible leaders, dry your eyes.

[KaiserDave]

Why is everyone overreacting to what could be possibly just be political pressure on Durham police?

[Torrain]

If he gets fined - it would be pretty hard to continue, given his rhetoric on Johnson.
Swapping leaders would at least let Labour regain the high-ground on this issue.

But a large part of me thinks this won’t result in a fine. Maybe I’m just p*ssed off at the Telegraph, who’ve leapt in with calls for him to resign, while putting Johnson on a pedestal despite far more egregious and numerous social engagements.

I like Starmer a lot as a leader. But I don’t hold a Fabricant or Dorries level of loyalty towards anyone in Westminster. The median voter would see fines for Starmer as evidence that “both parties are as bad as each other”. In fact, that damage may already be done.

I’m just frustrated that it looks like the Tories are going to get away with this all. No accountability, ever.

I hope this is just a jumpy police department taking a final look to get the Tory press off their backs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It clearly has come down to political pressure, which is really not a very good or healthy thing to have happened, particularly as it goes against the stated general policy of this particular force. In general there's not much point in speculating, but if a fine were to be issued (which on what we know would be absurd) and if he responded by resigning, it would have the effect of putting pressure on the Prime Minister by way of comparison. I don't think the idiots who have been pushing this have really thought any of it through.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well the "new evidence" that has so far been alluded to doesn't appear to be the sturdiest, let us say.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well the "new evidence" that has so far been alluded to doesn't appear to be the sturdiest, let us say.

A dialect word that... doesn't exist because it's a typo.

[Blair]

A certain twisted irony if the former DPP ends up getting forced out because of a weird interpretation  of the law and his own failure to recognise that.

My very earlier hunch is that they feel they need to do this because the Met did the exact same thing- refused to investigate and then u-turn.

If there is a fine it’s likely he would either resign or quite possible try to appeal (which well would be another saga- there’s a reason Boris didn’t)

It’s perhaps likely he gets the Sturgeon treatment over the mask- no fine, but reminded of the rules.

And the final option; Police are doing this so they’re not accused of covering it up, investigate in full and then clear Starmer.

Anyway it looks like the second year in a row will see election results overshadowed by Labour troubles; I wouldn’t be shocked if this chips away at support levels as it has been covered quite heavily.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway it looks like the second year in a row will see election results overshadowed by Labour troubles; I wouldn’t be shocked if this chips away at support levels as it has been covered quite heavily.

With genuine respect, I think this is almost comically pessimistic.

[Blair]

Anyway it looks like the second year in a row will see election results overshadowed by Labour troubles; I wouldn’t be shocked if this chips away at support levels as it has been covered quite heavily.

With genuine respect, I think this is almost comically pessimistic.

Ha well this is what 8 years in Labour has done to me; I think I meant more so from a Labour view that everyone will spend weeks and weeks waiting to see the result of this investigation rather than focusing on the good aspects of the results, or even the places about where they’ve gone backwards.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour people have a pretty straighforward response if asked - "Keir says he did nothing wrong, and there is no reason to disbelieve that unless clear evidence emerges otherwise".

[Storr]

Putting News First

https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1522459973049012226?s=20&t=LW7I9sBoIAFTZ...

A blessed edit:

https://twitter.com/ipaulmadden/status/1522462890426613760?s=20&t=LW7I9sBoIA...