UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Torrain]

Labour have posed an Urgent Question to the Government, concerning the investigation.

A statement to the Commons on the matter, from a government spokesman, is expected around 1pm.

No news yet on which poor soul will be the one forced to issue the statement and face down the Opposition.

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting that Sunak has been dragged into these latest "revelations".

[TheTide]

Interesting that Sunak has been dragged into these latest "revelations".

He's also resisting a U-turn on National Insurance if I read right.

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting that Sunak has been dragged into these latest "revelations".

He's also resisting a U-turn on National Insurance if I read right.

I thought he was doing the opposite (calling it "the PMs tax rise")?

[Farmlands]

It's still very much a political move by the police, whose policy so far had consistently been one of not retroactively pursuing Covid-related breaches.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's still very much a political move by the police, whose policy so far had consistently been one of not retroactively pursuing Covid-related breaches.

BoJo is not Average Joe Sixpack from Sheffield though, but the Prime Minister. It is to be expected that he held to a higher standard, especially since a) as PM he was politically responsible for the existence of COVID restrictions in the first place and b) he has by now an established history of lying about breaking the COVID rules.

[Silent Hunter]

These offences generally only carry a Fixed Penalty Notice, which is basically a parking ticket that doesn't go on your criminal record.

But some might get several of these and the costs add up.

[Blair]

I’d recommend watching on On Parliament TV from 1230 onwards today there was an urgent question about this- there was a range of rather creative responses from the government MPs defending this.

These offences generally only carry a Fixed Penalty Notice, which is basically a parking ticket that doesn't go on your criminal record.

But some might get several of these and the costs add up.

Rumours it might be misconduct in public office.

[beesley]

It's still very much a political move by the police, whose policy so far had consistently been one of not retroactively pursuing Covid-related breaches.

In the explanation given at the press conference today, Cressida Dick (or whoever wrote it) said that they had to consider whether not investigating would significantly undermine the integrity of the rule of law. I'm sure you can see that this applies here. The reason why it is an investigation of such scale and publicity is precisely because a) he's the bloody Prime Minister and b) because he wasn't caught in the act like most people who had received fixed penalty notices.

[Blair]

A good thread to read…

https://mobile.twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1485956344544956417

[Torrain]

Do read the thread above - I watched the exchange live, and it was every bit as out-of-touch and defensive as it sounds.

Out in the electorate however, it appears to be a rather different story - if today’s YouGov numbers are anything to go by:

 

Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1485985006472376322?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[afleitch]

The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe have  today officially condemned the UK along with, Hungary, Poland, Russia, and Turkey for attacks on the rights of LGBT+ people.

This is partially newsworthy for UK delegates car crash attempts to amend the resolution.

https://mobile.twitter.com/becca2uk/status/1485585969562673152

[Blair]

Why do MPs waste their time on these committees when they could be watching the generally hilarious antics in the commons or pointing at potholes in their constituencies?

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1486015473359724546?s=20

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1486029913387933697?s=20

[Blair]

There’s a good bit in dads army when Walker claims he was using two bottles of wine to conduct a singsong and that’s how the bottles ended up getting smashed over the head of two American soldiers.

We’re reaching that level of parody.

[afleitch]

[YL]

Question: How bad had the landscape and new boundaries screwed Labour? Back in ‘97 Labour got 43% and the Conservatives got 31%. Then in ‘01 Labour got 41% and Conservatives 32%. Those resulted in a massive landslides of 418 seats and 412 seats or 172 seat majority and then 164 zest majority

How many polls show similar percentages of the vote - some even more in Labour favor but the seat projections put them with a modest amount of seats. I even saw one poll that gave Labour a 6 point lead on the Conservatives and then finishing 20 short of a majority.

Does the SNP dominance basically make it very hard for Labour to form a majority government unless it’s a massive historical landslide?

This isn't a bad question, but we don't really know.  It's true that most seat modellers predict that Labour need a really quite substantial lead to win even a small majority, but seat modellers aren't that sophisticated and if there's a big swing they may get the details wrong.  Indeed if you work based on Uniform National Swing and take the Tories down into the low 30s then the Tory share would go negative in some constituencies.  The Electoral Calculus method avoids this but does still take the Tory share implausibly (IMO) low in some urban constituencies (which means few wasted Tory votes in these places, whereas Labour have a lot of wasted votes in safish Tory seats).

I suspect that if there's a big swing it will be lower in safe Labour seats in the cities (where the Tories generally don't have that far to fall) and also in many safe Tory seats in the countryside and the wealthy commuter belt (where there are just fewer potential Labour voters) and so it will be a bit bigger in intermediate areas, including marginals, and so Labour will do a little better than the models would predict.  But there is no guarantee of that.

(On the subject of safe Tory seats swinging too much, I note that the current Election Maps UK "nowcast" -- one of the less implausible looking seat modellers based on current polling AFAICT -- has Labour coming within 7 percentage points in Tatton while narrowly failing to win a majority.  Seriously?)

Close to an election we will probably get some decent MRP modelling which gives a better idea of where (if anywhere) is swinging.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Cassius]

That cake was just resting in my account.

[Torrain]

Politics Home: Boris Johnson Is Urgently Rallying Support From MPs As Bombshell Parties Report Looms

The Prime Minister spent several hours today meeting with wavering MPs in his office as he tried to see off potential backlash to the publication of Sue Gray’s party inquiry.

It is understood that Boris Johnson invited a number of Tory MPs to his Parliamentary office today who were wavering in their support of their leader, including several less rebellious MPs that may seem “surprising”.

MPs have apparently been in and out of his office all day, and that those invited are a “real mixture” of the Tory cohort, sources told PoliticsHome.

They said Johnson met with 2019-intake MPs this morning, before meeting with other rebel MPs across the afternoon and into the evening.

The article goes on to note that the effort is being lead by Chris Heaton-Harris, Nigel Adams and Chris Pincher - all of whom are ex-whips. No mention of the current whip team, which is odd.

Other members getting a mention as on Team Boris are various PPS, and ministers. The only named minister is Conor Burns, who you'll recognise as the member from the previous post, the master of birthday party spin. If Mr "Ambushed with a Cake" is the biggest name getting a mention, things could be a lot worse than Boris is willing to admit.

The article also includes a few choice quotes from Tory MPs:

"There has been lots of ‘the Prime Minister has always felt you have been overlooked’ and all the usual sh*t," one MP who had been contacted said.

"What's happened is that some middling, senior — and an awful lot of junior members — are rallying to the Prime Minister's banner and trying to make sure that he gets through this, so that we can carry on and do what we were elected to do,” a Tory MP told PoliticsHome.

“The majority (though) are probably starting to think that they don’t want to tie themselves to a sinking ship, and are hanging all hope on Sue Gray’s report being a damp squib, which is looking more and more unlikely.”

[Zinneke]

I wish Peter Mannion would be a real person in the midst of all this, sent out to defend the Johnson government on the radio...

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I wish Peter Mannion would be a real person in the midst of all this, sent out to defend the Johnson government on the radio...

Instead we get Michael Fabricant

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1486111189541265408?s=20

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is... not correct.