UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Torrain]

Apologies for the double-post. But there’s a second Conservative Whip story breaking tonight:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1484975758707671047

No public response from No.10, but frantic denials have been sent out to political correspondents (Rob Powell from Sky News quotes one No.10 source as calling it “categorically untrue”)

[Хahar 🤔]

One wonders why she signed up to be a Conservative MP.

[beesley]

Nus Ghani was widely considered to be a good advocate for the transport industry - especially the maritime sector. As a transport buff, I was very surprised at her dismissal at the time, as were industry figures.

[Blair]

Hahaha oh god. This isn't even in the top 5 stories today.

https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1485014446187634693

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Mark_Spencer/status/1485020127141806081?t=_y_eK3tqXK7bEur0iv...

Bold move from someone - but who?

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Mark_Spencer/status/1485020127141806081?t=_y_eK3tqXK7bEur0ivCXFw&s=19
Bold move from someone - but who?

So what’s the next move? Spencer resigns as Chief Whip and the Government pretends that fixes the apparent issues with the whipping system? Maybe he’s seen the writing on the wall, knows his authority is gone, and is planning to jump on this grenade to spare the government?

The problem is though… While it might relieve pressure for a day or two, Johnson will require a trustworthy whip when the next wave of bad news arrives, presumably mid-week (be it the Gray Report, or another round of whip allegations).

Maybe Spencer is taking responsibility (and protecting junior whips) because he’s one of the few people Johnson has to rely on, and believes he is temporarily unfireable?

This entire situation has become so internecine that I’m struggling to keep track of who is part of which faction, and which alliances have been former/broken over the past week.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1485014528991666178?t=CjoDhUH8er1PnuE...

A bizarre event where Aaron Bell subsequently declined to comment on whether this was true, but I see no reason to doubt this.

[beesley]

This entire situation has become so internecine that I’m struggling to keep track of who is part of which faction, and which alliances have been former/broken over the past week.

Fortunately Grant Shapps has started a spreadsheet to do just that.

[Torrain]

We’re getting calls for a probe into the Nus Ghani situation, and now, by extension, Mark Spencer himself, from the Education Secretary:

https://mobile.twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1484993351619338241

Sentiment is being echoed by those Conservative MPs (or their staffs) who are still active online at this hour (including Aaron Bell).

Not sure whether this changes the dynamics - but adds another line to the ‘Conservative in-fighting’ narrative.

Is nice to hear Zahawi stand up for Ghani - let’s see if the party listens. Whatever happened, this could do with some scrutiny.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mark Spencer confirmed as the worst Chief Whip in history. No, not because of the accusation, which is horrible but would not in itself reflect on competence in that job. No. For the brain-dead tweets about it - literally the opposite of what someone in that post is supposed to do.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Is it possible that islamphobia might the conservative party ? given how few muslims vote for them and how broad the sentiment is outside the community.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More are capable (as is often the case with minorities matters are conditional: e.g. the 2019 GE was a low ebb) of voting Conservative than often assumed, particularly in local elections,* and the number of Muslims with Conservative Party membership cards isn't tiny.

_{*Mostly notably in West Yorkshire, but also in certain parts of Lancashire and random places elsewhere, notably High Wycombe.}

[CumbrianLefty]

The frequent Tory habit of suspending people when allegations are made, and then restating the whip a short while later with no action having been taken, was being quite widely noted yesterday.

[Torrain]

Will be fascinated to see just how hard the Gray Report goes - or, if as initially thought, it ends up as just a finger wagging.

Good rundown of the current situation from the Sunday Times (soft paywall, apologies, see summary below)

Key points:

• Initial Cabinet consensus was that report would be a whitewash (Gray has a history of going to bat for scandal-hit colleagues, notably the late Sir Jeremy Haywood, former Cabinet Secretary, and apparently is uncomfortable with the thought of an unelected figure bringing down elected politicians) 
• But now, given that she’s been open to expanding the investigation into social events held in the No. 10 flat, and her ongoing discussions with Scotland Yard, the mood has shifted.
•   The Times has quoted MPs on background suggesting that the level of concern about the report has risen - with few-to-none expecting a clean exoneration for Johnson in the past few days.
• Downing Street expect to get a copy of report early on Tues or Wed, with a public release later in the day.
• Speaker’s Office seem to be prepared to pass any MPs complaints about Johnson’s behaviour contained on the report onto the Privileges Committee (chaired by Chris Bryant, but with a 4-3 Tory-Opposition split, along with 7 lay individuals who don’t serve in the Commons.)
• Whatever is contained in the report, Johnson will face calls from MPs to refer himself to his ethics advisor - which he’s unlikely to go for, apparently

It should be noted - for balance, that the Times characterisation of Gray as a soft touch on Downing Street figures has been refuted previously, such as in this Guardian article exploring her role in the downfall of Deputy PM Damien Green - writing the scathing report that revealed Green’s use of pornography on government machines, and accused him of sexual harassment after seeming the account of his accuser “plausible”, wording that Gray fought for.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its unlikely to say "Boris is bang to rights" but as you say that's not the same as exoneration. Maybe the question is whether the PM could get away with a fudge now, or have things got too bad for that.

[Blair]

The thing that I think people need to prepare for is the flood of bad faith defences; from the Cabinet, from the backbench loyalists and various figures in the media. There will be a big concerted effort unless the report basically says that he breaks the law.

The key depends on how far the report goes in saying that Bojo knew about the party; he has said in Parliament he did not know about it, so if the report says 'I have a text message' or the lesser '3 people have said they told him' then he would struggle to survive.

Part of me says he should refer himself to Lord Geidt but then we're backing waiting for another report where Boris will just sack him if he tells him to go. It's the same with the Speaker finding that he has misled the House.

Ultimately the only people who matter in this part are Conservative MPs.

[Blair]

Although it will be interesting to see how far it corrodes his standing with the public and if further allegations come out.

[MillennialModerate]

It’s a shame UK has a 5 year gap between elections. It should be 4 years.

With Labour up 12% in the polls that would likely result in a historic flip and bring Labour from around 200 seats to….what…. 380 seats?

Labour 43% • (176 majority • 418 seats)
Conservative 31%
LibDem 17%


Labour 41% • (164 majority • 412 seats)
Conservative 32%
LibDem 18%

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/Nus_Ghani/status/1485259972430774274


Which followed this little exchange. Can someone just lock Fabricant in a cupboard until Boris is forced out? The man's a national embarrassment at this point.

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1485242385768529921

[Conservatopia]

It’s a shame UK has a 5 year gap between elections. It should be 4 years.

With Labour up 12% in the polls that would likely result in a historic flip and bring Labour from around 200 seats to….what…. 380 seats?

Labour 43% • (176 majority • 418 seats)
Conservative 31%
LibDem 17%


Labour 41% • (164 majority • 412 seats)
Conservative 32%
LibDem 18%

I don't mind if Labour wins the election but please spare us those hideous LibDem numbers.

[Blair]

TV producers have realised they can get outrageous quotes if they book Fabricant.

[MillennialModerate]

It’s a shame UK has a 5 year gap between elections. It should be 4 years.

With Labour up 12% in the polls that would likely result in a historic flip and bring Labour from around 200 seats to….what…. 380 seats?

Labour 43% • (176 majority • 418 seats)
Conservative 31%
LibDem 17%


Labour 41% • (164 majority • 412 seats)
Conservative 32%
LibDem 18%

I don't mind if Labour wins the election but please spare us those hideous LibDem numbers.

I know they have some fundamental differences but it makes zero sense that Labour and LibDems don’t merge. This isn’t the 80’s or 90’s or even the 00’s … it should be done. I wonder how many seats would flip if they had a combined vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please stop. Thanks.

[MaxQue]

It’s a shame UK has a 5 year gap between elections. It should be 4 years.

With Labour up 12% in the polls that would likely result in a historic flip and bring Labour from around 200 seats to….what…. 380 seats?

Labour 43% • (176 majority • 418 seats)
Conservative 31%
LibDem 17%


Labour 41% • (164 majority • 412 seats)
Conservative 32%
LibDem 18%

I don't mind if Labour wins the election but please spare us those hideous LibDem numbers.

I know they have some fundamental differences but it makes zero sense that Labour and LibDems don’t merge. This isn’t the 80’s or 90’s or even the 00’s … it should be done. I wonder how many seats would flip if they had a combined vote.

Look, Joe Kennedy is behind you!

[Torrain]

I know they have some fundamental differences but it makes zero sense that Labour and LibDems don’t merge. This isn’t the 80’s or 90’s or even the 00’s … it should be done. I wonder how many seats would flip if they had a combined vote.

_{Quick one paragraph response, because everyone deserves a good-faith answer every now and again:
Lib Dems can win seats in areas that would never vote Labour (Tory-Lib Dem marginals include affluent London seats like Richmond Park, and suburban university seats like Oxford West), making them a quiet asset to Labour, either in reducing the number of Tory MPs, or as a possible coalition partner (see the late 70s). Additionally, Labour is already such a big tent, full of warring factions, that there's no way they could encompass the Lib Dem's centrist vibes (even if the Lib-Dems wanted a merger, which they don't) without bleeding the left-wing portion of their base dry, probably leading to an equivalent small party to their left, instead of their right.}