UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Silent Hunter]

To be honest, there is Rishi Sunak now. We could have an Asian PM by the end of this year, feasibly.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1483547353495842817?s=21
It has began.

Small but significant chance that he wouldn't contest such a vote. Especially if prominent cabinet members publically turned against him.

[Silent Hunter]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1483547353495842817?s=21
It has began.

Small but significant chance that he wouldn't contest such a vote. Especially if prominent cabinet members publically turned against him.

Thatcher famously won the first round in 1990 but not enough to win the contest outright; she did not contest the second.

[Torrain]

What do we think happens next if the letters come in, but Johnson fairly narrowly wins the confidence vote?  (Say about 200 to 160.)

Well for a start, the odds of the Scottish Tories formally distancing themselves from the national party and rebranding simply as “the Conservative and Unionist Party” jumps by at least 20%.

Honestly, I don’t know where the party would go from there. Without Parliamentary accountability, it could all get a bit too GOP for my liking. At minimum I’d expect a couple of defections (from someone like Caroline Noakes for example).

But I currently think that if the 54-letter threshold is reached, he’s essentially done for. The confidence ballot (post-submission of the 54 letters) is secret, so it’s a lot harder for the whips to bully members or exact revenge. And just having to hold a confidence vote for a PM who won a landslide a mere two years ago is such an embarrassment that I think they’ll just push him out the door.

[Silent Hunter]

What do we think happens next if the letters come in, but Johnson fairly narrowly wins the confidence vote?  (Say about 200 to 160.)

Well for a start, the chance of the Scottish Tories formally distancing themselves from the national party and rebranding simply as “the Conservative and Unionist Party” jump by at least 20%.

Honestly, I don’t know where the party would go from there. Without Parliamentary accountability, it could all get a bit too GOP for my liking. At minimum I’d expect a couple of defections (from someone like Caroline Noakes for example).

But I currently think that if the 54-letter threshold is reached, he’s essentially done for. The confidence ballot (post-submission of the 54 letters) is secret, so it’s a lot harder for the whips to bully members or exact revenge. And just having to hold a confidence vote for a PM who won a landslide a mere two years ago is such an embarrassment that I think they’ll just push him out the door.

Thatcher won a bigger landslide in 1987 than Johnson!

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/STVKathryn/status/1483562077478342656?s=20

[YL]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1483547353495842817?s=21
It has began.

Small but significant chance that he wouldn't contest such a vote. Especially if prominent cabinet members publically turned against him.

Thatcher famously won the first round in 1990 but not enough to win the contest outright; she did not contest the second.

Back then the rules said that to win outright in the first round a candidate had to be clear of the field by 15 percentage points.  Thatcher didn't achieve that, so there would be a second round; supposedly she was then told that people would switch sides and she would lose.

That doesn't, in principle, apply now.  Johnson could win the confidence vote by one vote and that would be it if he really wanted to stay on, though it's hard to see anyone as a credible PM in those circumstances.

[Torrain]

What do we think happens next if the letters come in, but Johnson fairly narrowly wins the confidence vote?  (Say about 200 to 160.)

Well for a start, the chance of the Scottish Tories formally distancing themselves from the national party and rebranding simply as “the Conservative and Unionist Party” jump by at least 20%.

Honestly, I don’t know where the party would go from there. Without Parliamentary accountability, it could all get a bit too GOP for my liking. At minimum I’d expect a couple of defections (from someone like Caroline Noakes for example).

But I currently think that if the 54-letter threshold is reached, he’s essentially done for. The confidence ballot (post-submission of the 54 letters) is secret, so it’s a lot harder for the whips to bully members or exact revenge. And just having to hold a confidence vote for a PM who won a landslide a mere two years ago is such an embarrassment that I think they’ll just push him out the door.

Thatcher won a bigger landslide in 1987 than Johnson!

Exactly! And that’s why he’ll go. The Conservative sense of self-preservation is legendary - and Boris poses a greater electoral threat than the opposition right now, just as Thatcher did in ‘90.

[Silent Hunter]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1483547353495842817?s=21
It has began.

Small but significant chance that he wouldn't contest such a vote. Especially if prominent cabinet members publically turned against him.

Thatcher famously won the first round in 1990 but not enough to win the contest outright; she did not contest the second.

Back then the rules said that to win outright in the first round a candidate had to be clear of the field by 15 percentage points.  Thatcher didn't achieve that, so there would be a second round; supposedly she was then told that people would switch sides and she would lose.

That doesn't, in principle, apply now.  Johnson could win the confidence vote by one vote and that would be it if he really wanted to stay on, though it's hard to see anyone as a credible PM in those circumstances.

May won the confidence vote, you'll recall.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1483547353495842817?s=21
It has began.

Small but significant chance that he wouldn't contest such a vote. Especially if prominent cabinet members publically turned against him.

Thatcher famously won the first round in 1990 but not enough to win the contest outright; she did not contest the second.

Back then the rules said that to win outright in the first round a candidate had to be clear of the field by 15 percentage points.  Thatcher didn't achieve that, so there would be a second round; supposedly she was then told that people would switch sides and she would lose.

That doesn't, in principle, apply now.  Johnson could win the confidence vote by one vote and that would be it if he really wanted to stay on, though it's hard to see anyone as a credible PM in those circumstances.

And there would be nothing from stopping the Conservative Party from changing its rule in the meantime, particularly in the midst of bad local elections/by-elections/opinion polls.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1483547353495842817?s=21
It has began.

Small but significant chance that he wouldn't contest such a vote. Especially if prominent cabinet members publically turned against him.

Thatcher famously won the first round in 1990 but not enough to win the contest outright; she did not contest the second.

Back then the rules said that to win outright in the first round a candidate had to be clear of the field by 15 percentage points.  Thatcher didn't achieve that, so there would be a second round; supposedly she was then told that people would switch sides and she would lose.

That doesn't, in principle, apply now.  Johnson could win the confidence vote by one vote and that would be it if he really wanted to stay on, though it's hard to see anyone as a credible PM in those circumstances.

May won the confidence vote, you'll recall.

She was still gone in about six months.

And tbh I don't see Johnson not contesting any such vote, he's simply not that sort of person. Thatcher resigned like she did solely because she faced another person who was set to beat her.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1483547353495842817?s=21
It has began.

Small but significant chance that he wouldn't contest such a vote. Especially if prominent cabinet members publically turned against him.

Thatcher famously won the first round in 1990 but not enough to win the contest outright; she did not contest the second.

Back then the rules said that to win outright in the first round a candidate had to be clear of the field by 15 percentage points.  Thatcher didn't achieve that, so there would be a second round; supposedly she was then told that people would switch sides and she would lose.

That doesn't, in principle, apply now.  Johnson could win the confidence vote by one vote and that would be it if he really wanted to stay on, though it's hard to see anyone as a credible PM in those circumstances.

May won the confidence vote, you'll recall.

She was still gone in about six months.

And tbh I don't see Johnson not contesting any such vote, he's simply not that sort of person. Thatcher resigned like she did solely because she had another person who was set to beat her.

In the immediate post-EU referendum leadership election, Johnson pulled out because he saw the writing on the wall. In this kind of case it would probably take leading cabinet members to resign, but such a thing would be possible IMHO. A confidence vote also wouldn't (unlike in Thatcher's case) be a direct contest between two individuals.

In related news, Nadine Dorries has said, it seems, that removing Johnson would make Starmer Prime Minister. She is one of those who would be sacked under a new leader. I wonder why.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1483547353495842817?s=21
It has began.

Small but significant chance that he wouldn't contest such a vote. Especially if prominent cabinet members publically turned against him.

Thatcher famously won the first round in 1990 but not enough to win the contest outright; she did not contest the second.

Back then the rules said that to win outright in the first round a candidate had to be clear of the field by 15 percentage points.  Thatcher didn't achieve that, so there would be a second round; supposedly she was then told that people would switch sides and she would lose.

That doesn't, in principle, apply now.  Johnson could win the confidence vote by one vote and that would be it if he really wanted to stay on, though it's hard to see anyone as a credible PM in those circumstances.

May won the confidence vote, you'll recall.

She was still gone in about six months.

And tbh I don't see Johnson not contesting any such vote, he's simply not that sort of person. Thatcher resigned like she did solely because she had another person who was set to beat her.

In the immediate post-EU referendum leadership election, Johnson pulled out because he saw the writing on the wall. In this kind of case it would probably take leading cabinet members to resign, but such a thing would be possible IMHO. A confidence vote also wouldn't (unlike in Thatcher's case) be a direct contest between two individuals.

In related news, Nadine Dorries has said, it seems, that removing Johnson would make Starmer Prime Minister. She is one of those who would be sacked under a new leader. I wonder why.

Yes, but maybe not *just* yet. That is the "nuclear" option really - and if the Tories ever reach that point they are in a bad way indeed.

[Blair]

I think some of the coverage has forgotten that if he wins he can't be challenged for another 12 months- we could have the bizarre scene where he wins a no-confidence vote, gets slaughtered in the Gray report & then just sits it out. This would be the absolute worse thing to happen for the Conservatives- a hated lame duck PM who they can't even talk about removing.

They could change the rules after; but if we're at that stage we'll just see a cabinet walk out.

Unlike May however I am genuinely unsure if Boris would win a secret ballot- he has a lot of enemies on the backbenches and people on the payroll who will happily vote against him in a secret ballot.

I recall Portillo took a photograph with his ballot supporting Major in '95- I wonder if Sunak will be forced to do the same.

[Suburbia]

To be honest, there is Rishi Sunak now. We could have an Asian PM by the end of this year, feasibly.

I don't know if the older, middle class white Tory grassroots will accept that...Sunak looks like a Westminster creation.

[Blair]

Up there with Eric Joyce- but that took years to happen. Moore has bought down a PM in mere weeks!

https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1482770431375560717

[Silent Hunter]

Up there with Eric Joyce- but that took years to happen. Moore has bought down a PM in mere weeks!

https://twitter.com/davies_will/status/1482770431375560717

And looking at today's interview, a certain quote comes to mind.

"Don't you think he looks tired?"

[Blair]

Tory MPs clearly taking it well...

https://twitter.com/ScottBentonMP/status/1483567164355493889

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Tory MPs clearly taking it well...

https://twitter.com/ScottBentonMP/status/1483567164355493889

Again all politicans should be banned from twitter.

[Torrain]

Regardless of the exact details of the situation, the one thing we can be sure of is that PMQs is going to be an absolute riot* tomorrow.



_{*Whether that ends up meaning “fun”, “a raucous mess”, or “Angela Rayner literally leaps over the benches, leading a scrum of MPs to headbutt Boris while screaming ‘the North never forgets!’” is entirely up to you.}

[Suburbia]

Who does Johnson support succeeding him anyway?

[MABA 2020]

What do we think happens next if the letters come in, but Johnson fairly narrowly wins the confidence vote?  (Say about 200 to 160.)

That's what happened with T. May which didn't turn out very well did it? I don't think the tories will make the same mistake again, if there is a no confidence vote I'm pretty sure he'll lose it since they know it'll be their only chance for a year.

[Conservatopia]

The average age of the "pork pie plotters" is under 40.
This isn't men in grey suits it's kids in nappies.

[Blair]

The average age of the "pork pie plotters" is under 40.
This isn't men in grey suits it's kids in nappies.

So was the curry house plot in 2006 which got rid of Sir Tony!

[Blair]

Tory whips telling rebels they’ll get f***ed in the boundary changes if they oppose the PM. Not a great sign when you’re forced to make threats like this.