UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[TheTide]

William Wragg (Hazel Grove) calls on Johnson to resign. A Vice Chair of the 1922 Committee...

[Coldstream]

Wragg is significant because he’s a diehard Brexiteer, respected amongst the grassroots. Though he’s been a rebel on covid from the start so he’s not exactly a loyalist.

[LAB-LIB]

Douglas Ross, the leader of the Scottish Conservative Party has formally called on Johnson to resign, as has former leader Ruth Davidson. Several Conservative MSP's have called on Johnson to resign as well.

[Conservatopia]

An interesting thing to note is that Boris is the first Tory leader in a long time to have no Praetorian Guard in Parliament that is willing to back him to the hilt. Even Major and May had their arch-loyalists. This is probably in part due to the fact he spent eight years out of Westminster when he was Mayor. Whilst Boris does have his allies (Burns, Dorries, Malthouse, Patel, Shapps) they are mostly in government positions and not on the backbenches (where he needs them) and the fact that he does not belong to any party faction is another strength that is now working against him because he can only rely on personal connections rather than factional allies like Thatcher or Major could.

[All Along The Watchtower]

In sillier news, some old tweets from a Labour councillor have been uncovered, and uh:

https://twitter.com/philipnormal/status/38324028531949568?s=20
https://twitter.com/philipnormal/status/79214225884594176?s=20

[PSOL]

What are these rumors that Corbyn might start his own party if not given back the whip?

[Blair]

The remarkable thing is just how much No.10 and the Cabinet devoted to 'waiting for the Gray report'; it does have shades of previous internal reports where MPs can essentially lie about its contents and claim that it cleared the PM of any wrongdoing.

But there's a chance that it will be done in a way to prevent that, or that further incidents emerge in the upcoming days or even after the report.

Of course the banter outcome is for inspector knacker to get involved and make this drag on for months and months.  

Wragg is significant because he’s a diehard Brexiteer, respected amongst the grassroots. Though he’s been a rebel on covid from the start so he’s not exactly a loyalist.

I would be tempted to describe him as a wet, but it's more so in style- the list of those MPs calling for his ouster is still in the predictable category but we know letters will be going in anonymously.

[Blair]

An interesting thing to note is that Boris is the first Tory leader in a long time to have no Praetorian Guard in Parliament that is willing to back him to the hilt. Even Major and May had their arch-loyalists. This is probably in part due to the fact he spent eight years out of Westminster when he was Mayor. Whilst Boris does have his allies (Burns, Dorries, Malthouse, Patel, Shapps) they are mostly in government positions and not on the backbenches (where he needs them) and the fact that he does not belong to any party faction is another strength that is now working against him because he can only rely on personal connections rather than factional allies like Thatcher or Major could.

https://twitter.com/SnoozeInBrief/status/1480969616222523392

[All Along The Watchtower]

You guys aren't saying that the editor of The Spectator who wrote the acclaimed novel Seventy-Two Virgins is a horrible man who should never have been Prime Minister, are you?

[Coldstream]

The remarkable thing is just how much No.10 and the Cabinet devoted to 'waiting for the Gray report'; it does have shades of previous internal reports where MPs can essentially lie about its contents and claim that it cleared the PM of any wrongdoing.

But there's a chance that it will be done in a way to prevent that, or that further incidents emerge in the upcoming days or even after the report.

Of course the banter outcome is for inspector knacker to get involved and make this drag on for months and months.  

Wragg is significant because he’s a diehard Brexiteer, respected amongst the grassroots. Though he’s been a rebel on covid from the start so he’s not exactly a loyalist.

I would be tempted to describe him as a wet, but it's more so in style- the list of those MPs calling for his ouster is still in the predictable category but we know letters will be going in anonymously.

Wragg is very far from a wet, he was campaigning with Peter Bone and Nigel Farage during the referendum when Johnson was shunning them.

[Silent Hunter]

Of course, Prime Ministerial resignations due to personal conduct are pretty much unheard of here, but you did have a number of chief ministers removed by their monarchs, who subsequently removed their heads.

Ultimately, Her Majesty could theoretically sack her Prime Minister. The Dutch Queen did it in 1940 with Dirk Jan de Geer for advocating a separate peace with Nazi Germany... but they officially did that on health grounds.

****
As for the Cabinet backing him... they have to or they have to resign. Collective responsibility is still in place here.

[Pericles]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1481358087286108169?ref_src=twsrc%5...

How is this even accepted as a statement of support? It means nothing.

[Blair]

Despite the act he has always been quite vicious in his politics.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1481399221496463361?ref_src=twsrc%5Eg...

[Silent Hunter]

Despite the act he has always been quite vicious in his politics.

https://mobile.twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1481399221496463361?ref_src=twsrc%5Eg...

The English aristocracy have always been vicious in their politics.

[MABA 2020]

This has been a fun day.

As long as he's gone before the end of July I think he'll be a shorter lived PM then May and I believe something like beginning of June to be beaten by Brown. Here's hoping.

[Suburbia]

Britain was once seen as a stable country.

Now Prime Ministers don't last 6 years.

Blair and Cameron are the only ones since 2001 to last long....

Shame......

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1481397556655669251?s=21

Ooof

Obvious caveat about needing more polls, but here’s one that’ll look bad.

[(no subject)]

The LibDems are the party of Gladstone and Asquith just with Democrats as a suffix. The ex-Labour element was never that essential.

[Zinneke]

An interesting thing to note is that Boris is the first Tory leader in a long time to have no Praetorian Guard in Parliament that is willing to back him to the hilt. Even Major and May had their arch-loyalists. This is probably in part due to the fact he spent eight years out of Westminster when he was Mayor. Whilst Boris does have his allies (Burns, Dorries, Malthouse, Patel, Shapps) they are mostly in government positions and not on the backbenches (where he needs them) and the fact that he does not belong to any party faction is another strength that is now working against him because he can only rely on personal connections rather than factional allies like Thatcher or Major could.

https://twitter.com/SnoozeInBrief/status/1480969616222523392

https://twitter.com/zinovievletter/status/1481211456595152900

[Blair]

I see the new line from supportive MPs is to accept he is awful but that his other achievements justify keeping him in.

[YL]

The LibDems are the party of Gladstone and Asquith just with Democrats as a suffix. The ex-Labour element was never that essential.

I'm not sure why you're saying this now, but I basically agree: the SDP people who remained in the merged Lib Dems long term were generally those who would have been comfortably in place in the old Liberals.  In particular it's not generally the case that it's the ex-Labour elements on the left of the modern party and the ex-Liberal elements on the right.

(Though I think there could be a debate to be had about how much the Liberal Party of Thorpe and Steel resembled that of Gladstone and Asquith, and not just because neither of the latter ever got accused of hiring a hitman.)

[Torrain]

More polling has emerged today, suggesting that Johnson presents a clear electoral threat to the Tories now:

From the Guardian

Almost seven out of 10 voters think Johnson's apology not sincere, poll suggests

An overnight poll has given Labour a 10-point lead over the Conservatives, their highest for eight years (see 9.40am), and there are some even worse findings in a poll out this morning from Focaldata.

Focaldata, which has shared the results with the Guardian and which is due to publish them later today, has been asking respondents about Boris Johnson. Here are the key findings.

Almost seven out of 10 voters (68%) think Johnson’s apology yesterday was not sincere, the poll suggests.

Keir Starmer has opened a huge lead over Johnson on the question of which leader is more trustworthy, the poll suggests. In April last year Johnson was ahead of Starmer (by 4 points - 38% to 34%). By mid December Starmer was well ahead (by 20 points - 44% to 24%). Since then the gap has got even larger; 51% say Starmer is more trustworthy, and only 16% say Johnson, giving Starmer a 35-point lead on this measure.

Starmer has also developed a clear lead over Johnson on who would make the best PM. In mid December Starmer had a four-point lead on this measure (38% to 34%). Now 40% of respondents say Starmer would make the best PM, and 30% Johnson.

Some 64% of voters think Johnson should resign, the poll suggests. And even amongst people who voted Tory in 2019, more think he should resign (46%) than think he should stay (43%).
Focaldata collected data from a nationally representative sample of 1,003 adults yesterday and today, and the results have been weighted by age, gender, region, education and 2019 voting.

[Torrain]

Local Tory campaigners in London have also started distancing themselves from Johnson.

I know this is mostly anecdotal evidence from a Guardian reporter, but thought it was interesting, as my prior has been that the Conservatives let Johnson hold on until May so he gets the blame for the local elections being tough.

However, if he becomes a total millstone around the party’s neck, it’s hard to see him lasting that long. There’s no point in losing dozens of additional councillors to Labour, providing them with a bench of viable candidates for the next few election cycles.

https://mobile.twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1481578792825012224?ref_src=tws...

https://mobile.twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1481581177467285507?ref_src=tws...

[Blair]

The Tories in London will be particularly worried as councillors are generally the only people who they can get to canvass- it would be interesting to look at the membership data in some areas that were once areas of strength e.g. Chiswick, Richmond, Putney, Croydon.

I’m unsure re the new boundaries but a good General election for labour could be an absolute bloodbath for the Conservatives in outer London.

[YL]

The Tories in London will be particularly worried as councillors are generally the only people who they can get to canvass- it would be interesting to look at the membership data in some areas that were once areas of strength e.g. Chiswick, Richmond, Putney, Croydon.

I’m unsure re the new boundaries but a good General election for labour could be an absolute bloodbath for the Conservatives in outer London.

If you enter that YouGov poll into Electoral Calculus and select the new boundaries, then Labour gains in London compared with Electoral Calculus's notionals are:

Beckenham
Chingford & Woodford Green
Croydon East
Croydon South
Eltham & Chislehurst
Finchley & Muswell Hill
Fulham & Chelsea West
Hendon & Golders Green
High Barnet & Mill Hill
Stanmore & Edgware
Uxbridge & South Ruislip
Westminster & Chelsea East

Oh, and the Lib Dems win Wimbledon and both Sutton seats.  So yes, pretty bad for the Tories in outer London (seven seats left, mostly on the Kent and Essex fringes) and a complete wipeout in inner London.

(Full figures are Lab 313, Con 234, SNP 55, LD 24, Plaid 2, Green 1, Other 1 (Exmouth), so Labour just short of a majority.  Take with a pinch of salt.)