UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Oryxslayer]

It's quite funny that a lot of Tories are forgetting what happens after you call an election- you have to have one!

An early election during a time with high inflation, stagnant wages & where your Government has not really done much would be very brave!

It's been forgotten very quickly just how bad 2017 was for Theresa May because ordinary voters did not understand why there was any need for an election- which built the assumption that it was to give her a majority to bring back fox hunting & grammar schools.

People do not like early elections that are triggered without a good reason!

Yes, the only larger goal of calling a snap would be to vindictively punish those internally who turned against the PM, given that any vote right now could all-but only return a Labour government in some form.

[Oryxslayer]

Late to the party, but Johnson needs, what? 180-181 Conservative votes to save him? (Assuming everybody else votes the same way).  

Yes. There is a ~100 publicly committed Retain voters floating around right now, though obviously some of them are people who we know are saying one thing publicly and will likely do another on a secret ballot. So we don't know if he meets that threshold until its announced.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533858511335079936https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533857921804664837

Before the events of the last couple of months or so, I’d find it difficult to believe that even Tory MP’s could be this stupid/spineless. On the other hand, given what we’ve seen, who knows what kompromat the whips have amassed on them.

I mean the 'dissidents' to also use a word to apply to them collectively, have also claimed around 130 supporters, though obviously through private chats. All we can say is that May was in a much much better position, and those in the room are the only ones who truly know.

[Oryxslayer]

Good news for Labour, since you know BoJo would have even taken a victory of 1 to be a mandate to remain in office for as long as he likes, so this is a resounding victory from his perspective.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any chance for Boris to turn the tide and improve his situation, going forward? Can things possibly go north for him, not south?

Theoretically, yes. Realistically, the things to do so are out of his hands and more likely to go against him. For example: cabinet dissent, and losing both by-elections.

[Oryxslayer]

My unpopular take is that this isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Conservatives. Boris can limp on but he is damaged. A few more months of cost of living, poor polling and by-election defeats can lead to 30 MPs switching sides and getting rid of him. If I was wanting to be the next Conservative leader I would want him to last a while longer so he absorbs a lot of the public hate and then the new leader can take over as the economy gets better (or stays bad, which at worst makes no difference from getting rid of him now). A new leader in 2023 would then give them a bit of time to define themselves and move on from Boris. The counter argument is that the longer Boris stays the more damage he does to the Conservative brand (just look at how long the damage from Blair, Brown, Miliband and Corbyn’s leadership lasted in some form or other), and his ability to make poor decisions will damage whoever succeeds him.

The issue of the Conservative Brand I think is the bigger one here, and its not one that is likely to change before the next election, whenever it happens. Today the public wants Boris to Go - including enough of the Conservative section to scare the PM. They just saw the party effectively close ranks to defend him when given the opportunity to toss Boris aside - never mind that a deeper examination is less stark. Unless the next few days see a reversal of the outcome through MP action,  then the public will begin to transfer their opinion of Boris to the Conservative party (for they hold the blame) as a whole for the medium term, which endangers their electoral fortunes at the next poll. Once Boris does go the new leader can't just now say that it's over, they will have to spend energy to internally clean up his mess, which will keep public perceptions of the party overall as poor.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1534932332716736516?s=20&t=MF93Cb...

I spotted this in my feed today....replace "Ukraine" with "Me" and I think the statement might reflect Boris' true beliefs ATM. Not that the UK should stop its support, but Boris really has just used it as a shield to protect his job.

[Oryxslayer]

Sturgeon announced they're trying for a second Scottish Independence referendum, claiming it would happen in October 2023.

I don't understand how they expect that to happen--Westminster is not going to assent to a Section 30 order? And I don't really see that changing short of some snap election where Labour suddenly need to do the SNP's bidding to get into government (agreeing to IndyRef2 is also a very dumb idea for Labour, but that's besides the point). Or are they going to plow ahead Catalonia style?

Does make you wonder what would happen if the "NO" vote wins again in 2023--Perhaps that could "end" discussion on this for a while, or it could just keep the nation somewhat polarized on pro- and anti-independence matters

Yes it really seems futile. Boris - or whoever has control of the Tories then - will say no. Then the ball is then back in Sturgeon's court and no move is beneficial. She could confront the government, calling for protests and demonstrations. That won't win her any favors with the marginal Scottish voters, and it may prompt a reaction from Westminster to try and generate some rally-around-the-flag sympathy and play their cards like Madrid did. She could plow ahead and hold an unrecognized referendum like Catalonia - which will likely be won by the separatists thanks to unionist abstention -  but then the SNP are in the position of the Catalans where they threw away national and international goodwill for little benefit. Then there is the option of accepting Westminster's No, but Sturgeon can't so that politically.

[Oryxslayer]

How credible is the snap October election theory?

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1537845004751847425

This comes up every few weeks. It always seems that the Tories are high on their own stash when the justifications are laid out against the polling. The Conservative Westminster bubble may have lost touch with reality, but they still can read the room when by-election losses head the papers. And so we reach the conclusion that such a action would be either totally absentminded in regards to the end goal of holding power, or purely vindictive on Boris's part. Both situations defy logic so nobody can say it will happen until it happens.

[Oryxslayer]

Whelp, both by-elections were thumping losses for the Tories. Lets see how BoJo convinces the backbenchers to save his job this time.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think it's been mentioned yet but Sturgeon called for IndyRef2 on the 19th of October, 2023. Since I have seen nothing from the Conservatives, I assume this means the SNP are planning for the confrontational route.

[Oryxslayer]

The claim is that they’ll run in 2024 on a pure independence ticket; I expect with the threat that they’d bring down a Labour Government if it didn’t grant one. .

And in that scenario I expect Labour wouldn't bite and would dare the SNP to bring them down and risk opening the door back to the Tories?

I don't think the SNP leaders now really cares about that, even though their public image at the moment feigns difference.  In the end, they are both Westminster parties elected mainly by the English who will both say no to a second referendum if given a free opinion.

What does seem to be an issue is that Lab+Lib has a majority in most present models and expectations.

[Oryxslayer]

So YouGov did a MRP poll/estimation of Tory seats the Lib-Dems could target. Obviously I think the biggest thing that needs to be stated is that what defines a Lib-Dem target is only really minimally decided by the last election results, its more do to their base floor, campaign effort, and candidates they recruit. What I find most interesting is the southeastern swings, mainly around Surrey. In many of these seats the Lib-Dems have a local base, but never could break on through. Now however it looks like the Dominos may be falling fast, which means similar seats to the west and north of London not polled might also be battlegrounds.

[Oryxslayer]

Taking all bets: does Boris survive this latest Broadside? Does the government survive or need to be fully reconstituted in some fashion?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1544372392629338119?s=20&t=26iYw-UhGPa...

Popcorn sure is tasty today

[Oryxslayer]

My hot take is Partygate isnt what really caused this but rather what caused this was after 12 years of Tory rule, the voters were looking for any excuse to turn on the Tories. Partygate and Starmer being inoffensive enough gave that excuse and the rest is history

I'm not sure this makes much sense. If the electorate wanted to turn on the Tories, they've had a number of opportunities before this year.

Indeed - 2021 was a year of great electoral success for them until the autumn.

Maybe the electorate have *finally* turned on the Tories *now* (we can but hope) but they've proved malleable by the right wing's (and captive media's) ever changing cynicism for a pretty long time.

I mean the reason why this is all happening now is because Boris's Drip-Drip scandals (which were there before true party-gate revelations) are coinciding with the cost of living. Like in 2021 there was the sleaze stuff about his residence which failed to stick whatsoever. One on top of the other created a feedback loop that presently is consuming the Tories.

Alex Chalk resigns as Solicitor General.

Also worth noting he’s sitting on a razor-thin majority in Cheltenham - 981 votes.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexChalkChelt/status/1544437737771655169

I mean given where the Lib-Dems are right now, he's probably DOA unless things change or a nomination in a different seat. I think YouGov's seat MRP had that as L-D by over 15%...

[Oryxslayer]

Johnson's (few?) remaining supporters apparently saying he is serious about his threat to dissolve the current parliament "if that is what it takes".

I mean, it is still most likely a total bluff and even if he attempts that it will surely fail. But even so it is far from unbelievable that he might give it a go. Yet again, it would be just desserts for a party that in large measure voted for him to be PM *despite knowing what sort of person he was*.

I mean we all know that such a move would be pure reaction and retribution,  with a side of risking it all for more time in power. Especially since we can expect Uxbridge to go red in the current environment - especially if Boris is still there. And it probably won't change the Tory line, they would just run on something anti-Boris but in favor of saving the furniture.  

Johnson's (few?) remaining supporters apparently saying he is serious about his threat to dissolve the current parliament "if that is what it takes".

I mean, it is still most likely a total bluff and even if he attempts that it will surely fail. But even so it is far from unbelievable that he might give it a go. Yet again, it would be just desserts for a party that in large measure voted for him to be PM *despite knowing what sort of person he was*.

Has the Fixed Terms Act been repealed cause if it isn’t then Boris would not be able to go through with this threat

Yes, in March.

[Oryxslayer]

Assuming that the rules are changed and that Johnson does lose a VONC next week (although, at this point, I'm not 100% confident that the party won't bottle it yet again), the rule that leaders can't be challenged again for one calendar year after winning a one needs to be scrapped ASAP. Sure, a threshold of letters for a challenge is probably a necessity, but the one year rule has created a truly ludicrous situation.

At this point I'd also have to say that the careers of anyone who remains in cabinet after this point must be toast. The Johnson loyalists apart, you can't announce that you have no confidence in the PM, tell that to his face, then back down and announce that you support him just because he ing says 'no - piss off'. This is possibly the only parliamentary democracy in the world where the politicians could be that weak and spineless in dealing with a failed leader. You can't imagine them sh*tting the bed this badly in an Australian political party.

Johnson is trying to make this argument that the Conservative victory in 2019 resulted in a governing mandate not for the party but for him as an individual, which really is totally contrary to the central premise of parliamentary democracy, and it's extraordinary how many are somehow willing to go along with that reasoning.

Reasoning that has been massively been encouraged by our media, of course - not least when even a BBC Political Editor banded around the nonsense phrase "unelected prime minister" with abandon.

I mean it should be no surprise that since many Tories guiding light ideologically these days is the US, they would put up a PM who believes he has the mandate and stature of a president.  In this vein, Boris's main personal failure was his inability (impossibility) to get loyalists kick out older incumbents more loyal to the party as a whole  - aka what happened to the GOP with their 2018 and 2020 intakes. Maybe in that universe the entire party would have their heads in the sand,  not just him.

It’s midnight here - and the resignations are still coming.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GarethDavies_MP/status/1544817086744109057?s=20&t...

To this end, I think we have reached the point where if you are still on the ship come Monday,  you are a loyalist whose higher career ends that day as well.

So 1922 committee decided not to change the rules tonight why? They're just gonna have to do it next week when he doesn't resign

They’re holding elections for a new executive on Monday - the argument being this new body will have a Democratic mandate to change the rules, whereas the current rump one didn’t.

I guess thats a better explanation, I thought they were still holding out hope he'd go voluntarily. It seems like prolonging the suffering either way to me though.

Far from me to suggest rule changes to a internally antidemocratic and exclusive club like the Conservatives, but the ideal way to go about this seems to be a incrementalized trigger threshold.  Essentially,  have X% of letters be the initial trigger,  and if the PM survives that vote, have subsequent votes that year require X × 2, 3, etc. Put up or shut up: prove things have changed and you can win a revote. I have full faith Boris would quickly face a second and third, if needed,  VONC to kick him out if this were the rules presently.

[Oryxslayer]

Starmer to table VONC in the Commons.

Does the UK system allow for there to be a window for an alternate PM appointed if they can command a majority of the Chamber, or does this instantly trigger a GE? It differs by country, and if the latter, then it wouldn't be unimaginable for the Tories to chuck Boris out and put up a new caretaker they expect to command their caucus.

[Oryxslayer]

So, where does Johnson rank compared to his two predecessors? I, for one, called both Cameron and May among the worst in British history, and I knew it wouldn't be long before he usurped them both for that title. Can the streak continue?

Cameron is still the absolute worst. His Brexit Referendum gambit to shut up the Eurosceptics within the Tory Party put the UK on its current path. That's not to say that there should not have been a referendum (because, clearly, Brexit had/has widespread support), but there should have been a **plan** in case leave won.

Cameron's issues almost all stem from the fact that he was a bad gambler, or at least one who sat down at the table without knowing the stakes. You put the Lib-Dems in the toilet and get one referendum result that pays out perfectly for the Tories,  and suddenly every gamble is worth taking.

 It didn't help that their second one appeared in the short term to have similarly reaped benefits. With hindsight we can see that this polarized the Scottish electorate and entrenched the SNP, a situation that is now leading to a potential constitutional crisis over devolved authority.  I have no doubt Cameron still would have rolled the electoral dice here even if he knew these outcomes,  since it means less Labour seats, but was certainly not a good decision ling term for both nations.

And of course he lost the third gamble, one no doubt made with the intention of repeating triumph over the Lib-Dems only this time with UKIP and internal enemies.  The third gamble though exposes how Cameron rolled the dice only seeing his outcome  - totally ignoring the finer and necessary specifics of the alternatives. When you play stupid games with the countries future, you win stupid prizes that endanger the stability of the system.  

[Oryxslayer]

They won't ditch him now - especially since he has promised to behave

Having to vote confidence in him will be embarrassing for many Tory MPs (that's why Labour are doing it, after all) but they will calculate any long term damage will be limited - at least if his replacement makes a reasonable impression. Though it will also be interesting to see if any *do* break ranks.

Given that the replacement process is already formally underway, I bet there will be a number of statements like "I don't have confidence in Johnson, but I have confidence that the process will find a new and competent PM, so I must vote against this measure..."

[Oryxslayer]

I wonder how much Starmer's situation in regards to voter perceptions is similar to Biden's situation - AKA there is a significant section of your base who vehemently disapprove of you for factional reasons, but are partisans and will still turn out to vote straight-line for Labour/Dems. Starmer of course can't exactly get these people to see his side for the foreseeable future, since their disagreements more stem from the fact he replaced Corbyn and is perceived by them to be against Corbyn's policies - whether there is truth or that or not,

[Oryxslayer]

Also to add to the uncertainty, it depends upon Labour's personal number in the event that the Tories lose the ability to form a government. A Labour government that requires the SNP and the Lib-Dems is a different beast from one that only needs the SNP or the Lib-Dems, from the position of all parties involved.

[Oryxslayer]

The particularly hilarious thing is that so much of the coverage was about how he had re-created British politics and the dividing lines between the parties- the squatting toad comment as an example after his rather rambling conference speech in 2021.

You would have thought they would have learnt after May in early 2017 & the talk of her serving for 10 years. At least Truss will not be entering into office with these expectations.

The one thing he could have had a legacy on was around planning reform- the original proposals would have killed the post 1947 legacy of planning and would have seen a very very different approach.

Although he made the mistake of putting an overzealous idiot in charge of the efforts & ironically the minister responsible in parliament for planning was a Mr Christopher Pincher.

I mean the geography of electoral victory has changed, and pretending it didn't happen is willful ignorance. Lots of Labour seats in the north are now marginals. Labour will be winning back nearly 100% of them next election if polls stay as they are, but the margins are what matters and those will likely remain close to the overall NPV. Meanwhile, a lot of seats in the south that Labour and the Lib-Dems won during the Blair landslides have had their Tory bases fall out from under them and are also now marginals, but the full extent will not be revealed until after the next election.

The issue is giving Boris all the blame/honor from this result, a personalization of politics more similar to presidential systems. Arguably a lot of the problems the Tories internally have right now seems to be because they maintained and fostered this illusion to their own detriment. Now the old guard has zero ideas how to win what was so recently opposition turf besides maintaining a PM who has lost these voters confidence according to polls. These are just generational trends and shifts in individual preferences which got accelerated by Brexit. For example the Tories have long been nibbling away at the once-solid Labour wall of seats in the Eastern Midlands covering the former coalfields, Brexit justa llowed them to speed things up and sweep.