UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Conservatopia]

Often a disproportionately high amount of politically engaged, reasonably young, educated, middle-class people sign up to YouGov and then wonder why they don't get polled so much. As someone who falls into that bracket I can say that most of the questions I was asked were about things like television viewing habits - unlike some of the other pollsters they frequently survey broader things like that for whoever might want to find that out.

Odd that you seem to get non-political questions.  YouGov, Survation and Opinium seem to just about only give me voting intention polls.

[Blair]

Does anybody have any estimate/idea/guesses of how much higher the % of people voting via postal votes is going to be in these locals?

I keep seeing people say ignore the polls because 'everyone' is on a postal vote... which seems to ignore the fact that I haven't seen any numbers & I only received mine towards the end of last week!

[Geoffrey Howe]

Does anybody have any estimate/idea/guesses of how much higher the % of people voting via postal votes is going to be in these locals?

I keep seeing people say ignore the polls because 'everyone' is on a postal vote... which seems to ignore the fact that I haven't seen any numbers & I only received mine towards the end of last week!

I know a family who for some reason all did postal votes in the London mayoral election. I doubt they ever used to. I should imagine it'll be higher.

[Silent Hunter]

I did postal votes this year because of Covid-19; I've set my preference to expire at the end of the year though as my polling station is less than 5 minutes' walk away.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I keep seeing people say ignore the polls because 'everyone' is on a postal vote... which seems to ignore the fact that I haven't seen any numbers & I only received mine towards the end of last week!

It comes across as a cope basically - particularly as people who vote by post are generally more partisan, or at least have already made their minds up. And also because the minority who vote by post and are not sure who they're going to vote for or if they will at all will (obviously!) be the ones who fill out their ballots and post them off the latest...

[Blair]

Curious for people's views on this; the seat should have been won in 2017 by Labour... but it's a region that swung heavily in 2019, Andy Street is a non-offensive incumbent and Liam Byrne is well Liam Byrne.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1389483686748254210

[CumbrianLefty]

Part of Labour's problem is that both Street and Houchen (the Tory mayor for the Tees Valley) market themselves as almost quasi-independents.

[TheTide]

Curious for people's views on this; the seat should have been won in 2017 by Labour... but it's a region that swung heavily in 2019, Andy Street is a non-offensive incumbent and Liam Byrne is well Liam Byrne.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1389483686748254210

If Street was merely in the high 40s on first preferences in this poll then there would be a lot of Twitter takes about how preferencing would make it close. This would be ignoring that 1. a lot of people don't bother giving a second preference and 2. those who do often don't preference in a way predictable on the basis of left/right.

Also has Labour ever been considered the favourite here? The "should have in the bag" line seems a bit of hackish spin.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, Payne is a hack and an increasingly tiresome one so there you go!

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, Payne is a hack and an increasingly tiresome one so there you go!

He paid a flying visit to Gateshead during the 2017 campaign, and having chatted to a few people - all of whom (surprise) hated Corbyn - concluded the Tories were set to win the seat.

I will let people look up the actual result for themselves

[Silent Hunter]

So, yeah, Hartlepool...

[cp]

Looks like bad news for Ed Milliband.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like bad news for Ed Milliband.

That's pretty much what Mandelson was actually saying this morning, apparently

[Geoffrey Howe]

Today has made me realise just how much more interesting I find British election results than American ones.

[Angel of Death]

I expect the next few opinion polls to show more support for Scottish independence again.

[GenerationTerrorist]

Have been working until 8pm today, so only just got in to the news/results.
(I first needed a walk with my dogs and then a beer, after a mad day in our Radiology Department at the Hospital when the CT Scanner killed itself!)

I am not overly surprised.
Though it is a bit of a worry for Labour given that the Brexit/UKIP vote from 2019 seems to have almost entirely gone to the Conservatives.

The situation in the country is, despite all the recent progress, still dominated by the Pandemic and probably will be for the next 18 months. If these votes had taken place in early 2023, for example, people may be seething at reflection on the woefully bad Pandemic response, rather than the fact they are able to go to the pub this weekend?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Interesting analysis from Matthew Parris. Effectively, he says, the levelling-up agenda will not work. In the short term, the Tories will keep on winning because they will compensate for that by going further on 'culture war' type issues. But this will come at the cost of educated, wealthier, entrepreneurial voters. Likewise for the country: the North will not succeed even with free ports and lots of cash, but focusing on it at the expense of places like London, Cambridge, Thames Valley may bring those places down - precisely the places that generate the wealth and keep Britain somewhat dynamic.

https://epaper.thetimes.co.uk/the-times/20210508/282200833794287

[CumbrianLefty]

Going too far on "culture war" stuff will be a net vote loser.

[Conservatopia]

Steve Aiken has resigned as UUP leader.  He was seen as a liberal and he moved away from the idea of unionist pacts with the DUP and co-operation with the Tories in Great Britain.

For those who don't know the UUP was effectively the NI branch of the Conservatives until the Sunningdale Agreement severed the links between them.  Since then they have co-operated to varying degrees and briefly formed a disastrous alliance from 2009-2010.

Aiken basically moved away from having any links with the Tories while many Tories (particularly on the right) moved towards closer collaboration with the DUP, exacerbating the trend.

From my perspective I hope whoever is the new UUP leader will re-orientate to an ever closer union with us in the Conservative Party.

[Blair]

Going too far on "culture war" stuff will be a net vote loser.

Yes this feels extremely similar to the debate that Labour had over immigration in 2014- which ended up with a negligent lack of parliamentary oversight (see the hostile environment) & the Labour party pissing off a lot of its own activists while still falling well behind with voters who ranked it as their top issue. 

[YL]

Steve Aiken has resigned as UUP leader.  He was seen as a liberal and he moved away from the idea of unionist pacts with the DUP and co-operation with the Tories in Great Britain.

For those who don't know the UUP was effectively the NI branch of the Conservatives until the Sunningdale Agreement severed the links between them.  Since then they have co-operated to varying degrees and briefly formed a disastrous alliance from 2009-2010.

Aiken basically moved away from having any links with the Tories while many Tories (particularly on the right) moved towards closer collaboration with the DUP, exacerbating the trend.

From my perspective I hope whoever is the new UUP leader will re-orientate to an ever closer union with us in the Conservative Party.

They tried that before and it didn’t go very well (though, to be fair, nothing they’ve tried since they lost their dominant position in Unionism has).  There isn’t much appetite for left-right politics in Northern Ireland.

[Estrella]

British polling industry gonna British polling industry.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1390553072368193537

[Derpist]

Today has made me realise just how much more interesting I find British election results than American ones.

US elections are a 50/50 trench war between two national parties that fundamentally agree on most major issues and basically every state and locality is just a rehash of the national partisan divide. In America, all politics is national and people even vote on local elections just to indicate their opinion on the President.

The UK at least has regional v. national dynamics + a multi-party system.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The Daily Express seems to be the mouthpiece of Boris Johnson. I have not seen a single critical headline from them. By contrast, the Daily Mail is quite anti-lockdown.

It's usually the Daily Mail which has massive quotes from Priti Patel on the front page; today it's the Sunday Express: 'And Priti Patel says 'we're coming after the criminals''.

(I don't read these 'newspapers;' I get their headlines from the BBC.)

[Conservatopia]

The Daily Express seems to be the mouthpiece of Boris Johnson. I have not seen a single critical headline from them. By contrast, the Daily Mail is quite anti-lockdown.

It's usually the Daily Mail which has massive quotes from Priti Patel on the front page; today it's the Sunday Express: 'And Priti Patel says 'we're coming after the criminals''.

(I don't read these 'newspapers'; I get their headlines from the BBC.)

Surprisingly the Torygraph (which I subscribe to) has lost its love for Boris since the last election.  Probably because he and Farage no longer write columns for them.  Instead they cheerlead Starmer's fight against "Trots".