UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Cassius]

RIP Wilf Johnson’s swing. The true victim of all these shenanigans.

[Cassius]

What do we think happens next if the letters come in, but Johnson fairly narrowly wins the confidence vote?  (Say about 200 to 160.)

Plotters and leadership aspirants look like:



ie embarrassment and disaster

[Cassius]

Time for Johnson to be supplied with a bottle of whisky, a gun and a nice, dark room methinks.

[Cassius]

It’s starting to look as if Wakeford’s defection and Davis’ intervention may in fact have been counterproductive as regards the prospects of a no confidence vote in Johnson. More MP’s seem to be rallying to the PM.

[Cassius]

It’s starting to look as if Wakeford’s defection and Davis’ intervention may in fact have been counterproductive as regards the prospects of a no confidence vote in Johnson. More MP’s seem to be rallying to the PM.

Would Wakeford have defected if he'd thought the threshold was about to be reached?  As he actually went the whole hog and went to Labour rather than just becoming an Independent, perhaps he was going to go anyway, but it seems odd timing.

Of course nobody really knows what's going on with the letters except the member for Altrincham & Sale West.

As per my understanding he’d actually begun discussions with Labour about a possible defection even prior to Partygate, so it certainly doesn’t seem like a spur of the moment thing.

[Cassius]

Why is the 2019 intake so utterly chaotic- compared to say the Labour 97 of Tory 2010 intake?

Probably a combination of 2019 being a snap election (thus necessitating the hasty selection of candidates), a general decline in the quality of people putting themselves forward to be a candidate and, as a purely Tory thing, attempts to broaden the social base from which Tory candidates are drawn leading to a larger number of weak candidates getting through.

[Cassius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1484107937132032001

Seems like a storm in a teacup. Looks as though the coup has failed, although calling it a ‘coup’ is rather generous given the lack of organisation amongst the MPs who want Johnson out. Johnson’s people sticking the boot very hard into Wakeford and the rebels, which will probably discourage most others from putting their heads above the parapet. PM looks to be safe until May at least barring any new revelations.

[Cassius]

I think it's time for the Conservative party to make a little sacrifice.

[Cassius]

That cake was just resting in my account.

[Cassius]

Mirza was one of the few serious people left in Downing Street, so that’s pretty damn bad for him. A sign that he’s becoming too radioactive even for the inner circle.

On a side note, I believe as regards “levelling up” that Johnson was wittering on the other day about the success that Germany has had with regards to “leveling up” East Germany. Whilst there’s a case both for and against that view, it’s a rather odd choice of illustration given the enormous brain drain that East Germany has had and continues to suffer from, which is exactly the thing that British “leveling up” is supposed to be about counteracting.*

*I think the whole policy is an absurdity, especially the stupid name, but still, just an observation.

[Cassius]

Wo ist Fegelein?

[Cassius]

Also equally, it is the fault of the quite incompetent Speaker Hoyle, who should have required Johnson to withdraw what he said.

Whilst what Johnson said would have been sailing dangerously close to slander in a non-parliamentary context, it wasn’t (as far as I’m aware) unparliamentary language, so Hoyle couldn’t really ask him to withdraw. I also very much doubt that Hoyle asking him to do so would have made a blind bit of difference to these protesters.

[Cassius]

Khan says FU Dick*

*It’s an older reference but it checks out.

[Cassius]

Neil Coyle has had the Labour whip suspended over allegations that he made racist remarks to a journalist in the Commons.

As an aside it was quite lolworthy that the journalist in question described the Commons bar as his ‘place of work’, although I suppose that’s technically true.

[Cassius]

I mean if they did something meaningful like abolish the EHRC, eject the concept of hate crime from the statute book and stop trying to force companies to achieve demographic parity on their boards then maybe we’d be going somewhere. Instead the government’s grand strategy is to lock people up for a decade for defacing a statue because it makes Winston’s Churchill’s ghost cry. That’ll turn the tide!

[Cassius]

Is there really any need for a pact? Most anti-Tory voters seem fairly aware of the concept of tactical voting these days and will vote accordingly, and given that both Labour and the Lib Dems are now led by fairly uncontroversial leaders there’s much more scope for this to happen than in 2019.

In giving tacit approval to some sort of pact, Labour risks getting pushed into a corner on electoral reform and possibly losing the ability to ever enact any meaningful change again. That should be born in mind before treating with a runt party like that the Liberal Democrats (especially since the prospect of the Lib Dems propping up the Tories in a hung Parliament is remote, and thus they don’t have much in the way of leverage, unlike in 2010).

[Cassius]

Is there really any need for a pact? Most anti-Tory voters seem fairly aware of the concept of tactical voting these days and will vote accordingly, and given that both Labour and the Lib Dems are now led by fairly uncontroversial leaders there’s much more scope for this to happen than in 2019.

In giving tacit approval to some sort of pact, Labour risks getting pushed into a corner on electoral reform and possibly losing the ability to ever enact any meaningful change again. That should be born in mind before treating with a runt party like that the Liberal Democrats (especially since the prospect of the Lib Dems propping up the Tories in a hung Parliament is remote, and thus they don’t have much in the way of leverage, unlike in 2010).

As well all know no German, Dutch, Kiwi or Australian Labour/S&D party has been able to survive and push through meaningful changes following electoral reform.

Well, the ALP has traditionally operated in (broadly speaking) a more two party and majoritarian system than even the British Labour Party and has never participated in a Coalition at the federal level. As for the PvdA and the SPD, their most recent stints in government (stretching back thirty years) are primarily remembered for pushing through policies that their supporters mostly didn’t like. The New Zealand Labour Party remains the central pivot of the centre-left side of politics and thus is able to function on a semi-majoritarian basis (although you’d have to question whether they have been able to effect meaningful change in many areas).

The point is electoral reform towards a more proportional system will force Labour to take its manifesto to the cutting room floor after every election (flukes like the New Zealand 2020 general election notwithstanding). Whilst we don’t know what constellation of parties would be thrown up by a more proportional system, we do know that, initially, Labour would most likely have to partner with the Lib Dems, who are no friends of Labour, certainly as far as economic policy goes. I don’t know why a party that is currently showing that it has the capacity to win 40, 41, 42% of the popular vote at the next election (potentially getting it either a majority or near enough to), would throw away the opportunity to be the sole shaper of policy in government (now and forevermore) for the conditional support of a dwarf party that primarily represents England’s leafy suburbs.

[Cassius]

The vast majority of them are fairly un-ideological people who vote on the basis of valence (not that they’d call it valence because they’re normal). Whilst I think there has been some degree of polarisation on the part of the broader electorate between the parties in the last decade, it’s nothing like the turbo-polarisation that has occurred in the media and between ‘Left Britain’ and ‘Right Britain’ (the latter being a good bit smaller than the former). Swing voters still exist in some numbers, as shown by the polls in the last couple of years.

[Cassius]

Jellyback is getting quite excitable indeed over Russia and Ukraine.

[Cassius]

Today I learned from our glorious leader of the existence of another international agreement between Russia and Ukraine known only as the Minksk Agreement.

[Cassius]

Johnson currently at pre-partygate levels of popularity - turns out war in Europe does still produce a ‘rally-round-the-flag’ effect, even if it can’t shift you out of a net-negative approval.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1500883993725747202
I guess the real question is whether that persists, and what on Earth happens during the local elections…

Still two months to go before the locals, which is a Hell of a long time. Who knows what the situation will be vis-a-vis Ukraine, but my guess is we’ll be living through the unpleasant hangover of both the conflict and the sanctions, which I suspect won’t do much for Johnson’s popularity. On the other hand, were the locals held today I’d expect a less dreadful than previously anticipated performance for the Tories that Johnson would be able to spin as turning the corner, giving the Conservative party yet another excuse to avoid making a decision on his future.

[Cassius]

I know Dale is a media person and thus has the attention span of a botfly, but you'd think he'd understand that the Home Office's 'incompetence' with regards the processing of refugees is the intentional result of a policy that successive Conservative governments have pursued for the last decade, designed to minimise refugee intake from wheresoever that might be, with the full support of the right-leaning sections of the press and media that he belongs to.* Expecting the government to change up this process within weeks (or to reform it at all) is essentially magical thinking.

*This is, of course, a tactic that has been employed in other areas, such as at the DWP with the process of claiming universal credit; make the process as byzantine and inefficient as possible in order to reduce uptake, which enables the government to reduce uptake without precisely spelling out that the goal of the policy is to reduce uptake.

[Cassius]

Obviously it shouldn't be difficult to guess my views on this and I don't wish to rack up more infractions but what I will say is he's not exactly a model MP and Bridgend was already a seat for which I hope (and expect) will be a Labour gain at the nect election.

I do find it strange they tried to use being trans as an excuse for running away from a car accident.

Break glass in case of being crooked moment.

[Cassius]

CRIME WEEK

*Crime Parliamentary Term

[Cassius]

Pls stop Tory MPs