UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[EastAnglianLefty]

There's also the issue that a full lockdown is going to require at least some measure of financial support, and probably a reinstatement of furlough, which Johnson would struggle to get his Chancellor to agree to.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Northampton's proposal was thrown together at the last minute, so it'd be a bit of a shock if they get it. My money would be on Middlesbrough, though I'd say the most deserving case there is Milton Keynes.

[EastAnglianLefty]

With the usual discussion around the NHS in THIGMOO it does seem interesting how few people in the UK are aware that GPs are private- I recently spoke to a family member who was shocked that there GP was closing (and being replaced with some strange sounding company in the next village)

I've long thought that if you want to run a campaign on nationalisation, the priority shouldn't be the utilities but rather things that people mistakenly assume are nationalised anyway - i.e. GPs and universities.

[EastAnglianLefty]

If yesterday's actions have slowed the path to 54, that's good for Labour, because Johnson is undoubtedly an unambiguous anchor on Tory support right now. However, the Gray report is likely to come out early next week and if that doesn't lead to a VoNC then the Tories are screwed, because it'll mean they're not going to try and disassociate themselves from Johnson at all.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Met has now asked Sue Gray to make 'minimal reference' to eight incidents they're investigating, to avoid prejudicing their investigations.

This is odd, because whilst reporting restrictions to avoid a jury trial do exist, lockdown-related offences are punished by a Fixed Penalty notice, not a jury trial. Lots of fevered speculation at the moment about what this means for the report and what the Met thinks it's doing, but it's worth remembering that whilst it is 'institutionally corrupt' (this is the verdict of the Daniel Morgan official investigation), it's also hopelessly, hilariously incompetent.

[EastAnglianLefty]

There was a suggestion that the Met were holding up publication because they were investigating more serious offences which might go before a jury. They've now denied this (off the record, to the Press Association) and said that the things they're investigating are covered by FPNs.

This being the case, we can be reasonably sure that the problem is that they are even stupider than everybody has been assuming and really have decided to just wade in and make themselves look absurdly corrupt.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Incidentally, if Johnson were to repeat a certain lie outside the Commons chamber, he would almost certainly face a libel suit which, were it to happen, he would certainly lose and would certainly have to pay extremely heavy damages.

He has since followed up by suggesting that the opposition frontbench are habitual drug takers. Certainly not flailing at all.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Our first resignation from the government - Angela Richardson from (the marginal seat of) Guildford who has resigned as PPS to DLUHC. You might think it's only a PPS - it's of course not as damning as one from any government minister - but remember, that's one more number in the other corner.

She was also fired as PPS back in November for refusing to vote to exonerate Paterson, only to be reinstated the following day.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Why would they abolish the EHRC? The current Commissioners are fully signed-up to the government's culture wars agenda.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I would also say that to the extent English resentment of the Scots is a thing, it isn't concentrated amongst the Labour base.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's worth pointing out that Labour doesn't run serious campaigns in Con-LD marginals. It never has done, and that's especially unlikely to change when the party's finances are in a parlous state.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Sunak has now admitted he held a green card until October of last year.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's not particularly loyal - more now than when Greig was editor, but its politics is still anti-Labour rather than pro-Boris.

The paper that is in the tank for Boris is the Express.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Only just realised that Richard Holden, the MP who pushed Beergate, is a former CCHQ press officer and SPAD.

They really do make the worse MPs don’t they?

Give me a clueless Luddite or an obsessive ex councillor over them any day. Brings the worse parts of Westminster to daily life; unnecessary aggression, an obsession with day to day coverage and an undying need to be seen as the one engineering it all- it’s just as bad on the Labour side.

I'm mostly inclined to agree with this, but it's worth noting that the other Tory MP who is keenest to push Beergate is Andrew Bridgen, who (when he's not lying in court) is very much a local Luddite for local people.

[EastAnglianLefty]

And if it incorrectly identified the accused then it would be libellous.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I almost *want* to see them try and turn Ed "Starmer Without The Excitement" Davey into some sort of scary bogey figure - it will be genuinely hilarious.

Wouldn't the campagin more be focused on turning "Former Trot" Starmer into such a figure for Con-Lib Dem swing voters ?

Well they are going to struggle with that too, though they seem to prefer the "he served under Jezza!" scare rather than the "Trot 40 years ago" one that literally nobody cares about even in the Tory party (after all, some of their MPs past and present were once on the left too)

There's also the Savile and grooming gangs stuff to rehash if they get really desperate, I suppose.

Well it probably won't matter to Labour voters or even Labour-Con swing voters, but i'm guessing trying to scaremonger about far-left policies that a Starmer-Davey  Alliance would implement could work. Similar to the mansion tax attack in 2015.

But the underlying point is that - compared to even "Red Ed", never mind Jezza - Starmer and Davey are simply fundamentally not very scary people. Tories risk actually looking ridiculous if they just try and run the 2015 attack lines all over again.

I don't know, there's already a scary biography of him out there painting him as a Machiavellian figure with a long-term plan to sabotage and purge the left from the party.
https://www.economist.com/britain/2022/04/28/sir-keir-starmer-the-cynical-leader

Which mostly goes to show that Verso will publish any old crap if they know your dad.

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-05-23/exclusive-pm-pictured-drinking-at-downing-street-party-during-lockdown

The pictures have indeed leaked.

I'm reasonably sure Johnson is just going to try and bluster this one out and my working assumption is that his backbenchers are cowardly enough to let him, but I'd be interested to see how the Met react to their being explicit photographic evidence that they are both incompetent and corrupt.

[EastAnglianLefty]

You might say that, the PM's Aussie deputy chief of staff seems quite convinced that doing anything about the cost of living is 'unconservative'.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Isn't this about the fourth time it's been reported that the numbers are in the high 40s? I'll remain sceptical until it actually happens.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Update: There’s to be a public statement from Johnson at 12.30 or so, a statement to the Commons in the mid-afternoon, and a meeting of the 1922 committee (with Johnson addressing the party) around 17.00.

This is all coming in via BBC News, and is liable to change on a day like this.

Which means it will be a weird PMQs, because ordinarily that's the main event whereas in this case it's just an appetiser.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's a spectacularly poorly chosen response, but entirely in character.

In other news, Johnson clearly hasn't read the report properly - he's twice claimed that it exonerates him over the Abba party, when in fact Gray specifically said she did not investigate it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Looks like a relatively big intervention on energy bills, but does show how stupid Sunak was to think his plan earlier this year was at all enough.

Devil will be in the detail and the fact that rising prices aren’t just about energy prices…

It's a decent scheme, and might have got a fair amount of plaudits if they'd done it in the spring statement. Major issues seem to be that the amount spent is a lot more than the windfall tax is expected to raise (though the Tories can get away with it in a way Labour simply couldn't) and that the investment deduction encourages fossil fuel extraction.

[EastAnglianLefty]

In other news, the ministerial code has been watered down so that the punishment for breaching it is at the PM's discretion.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Any plausible challenger to Major would have done worse, and it's not clear that any of the challengers to Brown would have done better. To depose a leader you either need an alternative or a consensus that literally any alternative would be better.

I think Johnson should start worrying about whether he'd win a VoNC when he sees Cabinet-level resignations. As it is even the former Cabinet ministers who Johnson has frozen out aren't calling for him to go.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's quite funny that a lot of Tories are forgetting what happens after you call an election- you have to have one!

An early election during a time with high inflation, stagnant wages & where your Government has not really done much would be very brave!

It's been forgotten very quickly just how bad 2017 was for Theresa May because ordinary voters did not understand why there was any need for an election- which built the assumption that it was to give her a majority to bring back fox hunting & grammar schools.

People do not like early elections that are triggered without a good reason!

Yes, the only larger goal of calling a snap would be to vindictively punish those internally who turned against the PM, given that any vote right now could all-but only return a Labour government in some form.

I suspect if he tried to do it the 1922 would immediately change the rules to let them no-confidence him again, and the Palace wouldn't grant a dissolution under those circumstances. They also tend to take a dim view of anything that forces the monarchy into a political crisis, and whilst they'd generally try to avoid making it worse they certainly wouldn't have an incentive to be helpful.