under a future dem president

[Mr.Phips]

Under Obama in 2010, Dems were still very over represented in white southern districts.  For instance, Dems still held majorities in both Alabama chambers and the Kentucky state house.  They held supermajorities in both Arkansas and West Virginia chambers and were tied in the Tennessee state house.

Another factor that contributes to the swing is the size of the New Hampshire house, where over 100 seats alone can swing in a given election.  . 

[Mr.Phips]

A dem president over 2 terms will probably lose 600 seats, the average loss in a 1st midterm alone is 420 legislative seats for the party that controls the WH, the GOP only lost 295 in 2018 because they were able to outperform historical trends and minimise their losses owing to Trump's strength outside urban areas, in many states they basically lost almost no seats, in WI they had a net gain of 1 legislative seat and in Iowa the net loss was only 2 legislative seats.

I think the 1st midterm for a dem president will be closer to the average loss of 420 unless they can expand their base outside urban areas, there are still hundreds of dems in legislative seats in areas that are trending Republican that will be wiped out the next time there is a midterm under a democratic president.

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2018

No way it would be 600 seats.  Dems are still like 200 seats away from a majority and do not hold the level of rural GOP double digit PVI districts that they held in 2010.  What would likely happen is that they lose around 300 (which is about what happened in 2014, when Dems were far less overexposed than 2010)

[Mr.Phips]

A dem president over 2 terms will probably lose 600 seats, the average loss in a 1st midterm alone is 420 legislative seats for the party that controls the WH, the GOP only lost 295 in 2018 because they were able to outperform historical trends and minimise their losses owing to Trump's strength outside urban areas, in many states they basically lost almost no seats, in WI they had a net gain of 1 legislative seat and in Iowa the net loss was only 2 legislative seats.

I think the 1st midterm for a dem president will be closer to the average loss of 420 unless they can expand their base outside urban areas, there are still hundreds of dems in legislative seats in areas that are trending Republican that will be wiped out the next time there is a midterm under a democratic president.

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2018

No way it would be 600 seats.  Dems are still like 200 seats away from a majority and do not hold the level of rural GOP double digit PVI districts that they held in 2010.  What would likely happen is that they lose around 300 (which is about what happened in 2014, when Dems were far less overexposed than 2010)

if they lost 300 seats - wouldn't that put them at there 2017-2018 numbers? Which is to say there lowest point since the 1920s?

Yes.

[Mr.Phips]

A dem president over 2 terms will probably lose 600 seats, the average loss in a 1st midterm alone is 420 legislative seats for the party that controls the WH, the GOP only lost 295 in 2018 because they were able to outperform historical trends and minimise their losses owing to Trump's strength outside urban areas, in many states they basically lost almost no seats, in WI they had a net gain of 1 legislative seat and in Iowa the net loss was only 2 legislative seats.

I think the 1st midterm for a dem president will be closer to the average loss of 420 unless they can expand their base outside urban areas, there are still hundreds of dems in legislative seats in areas that are trending Republican that will be wiped out the next time there is a midterm under a democratic president.

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_elections,_2018

No way it would be 600 seats.  Dems are still like 200 seats away from a majority and do not hold the level of rural GOP double digit PVI districts that they held in 2010.  What would likely happen is that they lose around 300 (which is about what happened in 2014, when Dems were far less overexposed than 2010)

if they lost 300 seats - wouldn't that put them at there 2017-2018 numbers? Which is to say there lowest point since the 1920s?

Yes.

well at what point does the wind finally get to be at the democrats' back? Like if you look at state legislative losses under Eisenhower and Nixon/Ford, they lost 800 seats under each while the dems only lost 400/500 seats under Kennedy/Johnson. By the time of the Reagan/Bush years, the GOP on net actually gained a seat or two. I would have thought that by 2017, the dems are where the republicans were circa mid 1970s but I guess you're saying they still have negative headwinds.

Whatever happened to the Emerging Democratic Majority?

The Emerging Democratic Majority tends to go into hibernation once a Democrat becomes President and doesn’t come out until after a Republican comes back in.

[Mr.Phips]

Most of this can be explained by 1994 being basically the only Republican wave at the downballot level since 1946. 

not 1966?

Dems didn’t come close to losing the House or their state legislative majorities in 1966.  They basically just had their 1964 gains reversed.