Remember there are people who strongly believe that because 2016 had every state vote the same for Senate and President that going forward that will happen in every single election until the end of time.
Yeah, this is such a hilariously bad take. Even in 2016, Republicans almost lost a Senate race in a Trump +18 state and almost certainly would have held NH if it had not been for the conservative Independent candidate (Aaron Day) who received 2.4% of the vote.
The below scenerios are not impossible next year:
1) Trump loses Michigan and Peters sleepwalks and loses to a Republican candidate with high name ID.
2) Trump eeks out a week in Arizona due to a thin Democratic margin in Maricopa County, underwhelmng Democratic margin in Pima and a monstrous Trump margin in the remainder of the state for the GOP. But Kelly ends up defeating McSally. This is probably a highly likely scenerio.
3) North Carolina will be close irrespective next year due to demographics. Just a few niche voters can make a shift.
4) A Democratic win in Maine while Collins wins reelection seems like the most probable outcome at this point.
5) Trump/Dem Senate Kansas result has been a possibility for months and has been remarkably stable.
Those are five split possibilities right there!
Also coalitions could be significantly different. Duckworth and Clinton had differing coalitions even if the present trends probably cost Duckworth several downstate counties and prevented Kirk from winning his home county of Lake.
For 2022 midterms I do not know if I would call Hogan the Democratic Bredesen. Hogan would not be old news in 2022 and he may have a ceiling of 48% in a Senate race but a third party could put him in the Senate in a Democratic midterm.
Anyway all states voting the same for President and Senate in 2020... is. not. going. to. happen. Period.
