Will Trump do better in the 2020 election than 2016?

[SN2903]

Many indicators currently are pointing toward yes with the advantage of incumbency, a good economy and a divided and weak democratic party that cannot unite on a message other than opposing Trump.

Impeachment clearly isn't playing which is why dems are now scrambling and supporting the USMCA because they ran on working together and haven't worked with the other side on zip so far.

[SN2903]

If he does it will only be by Minnesota and new Hampshire and every thing else is fantasy

no it isn't.  340 350 ev is in play because of impeachment

[SN2903]

Many indicators currently are pointing toward yes with the advantage of incumbency, a good economy and a divided and weak democratic party that cannot unite on a message other than opposing Trump.

Impeachment clearly isn't playing which is why dems are now scrambling and supporting the USMCA because they ran on working together and haven't worked with the other side on zip so far.

Let me ask you amore nuanced question, SN.  Let's say Trump does indeed improve upon his performance in 2016.  Does that still mean a close election in 2020? A massive Reagan-esque landslide where Trump stuns pundits by flipping states such as New Jersey and Oregon? Or something in between?

I'll answer your original question by saying it's too early to tell.  Trump could do better, but there's also room for him to do worse.  Though I will say that the odds are slightly in his favor at this point. 

No I don't think it will be that close.

[SN2903]

If he does it will only be by Minnesota and new Hampshire and every thing else is fantasy

no it isn't.  340 350 ev is in play because of impeachment

Impeachment is ahead in the polls and people know Trump is a crook, he got lucky in 2016 but he hasn't gotten more popular since then. All those voters that hated Hillary haven't warmed to him, he is making it very hard for himself.

  Not luck. He is a far better campaigner and politician than Hillary. Impeachment has gotten less popular.

[SN2903]

I don't think so. He could definitely win reelection but it'd probably be by a smaller margin than 2016.

If he does it will only be by Minnesota and new Hampshire and every thing else is fantasy

no it isn't.  340 350 ev is in play because of impeachment

There is zero chance Trump will win over 340 electoral votes in 2020 without a significant third party candidate. The only way he could get there is through Virginia or New Mexico, and neither of them are flipping in any realistic scenario.

VA is in play if Biden is not the nominee.