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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  Iowa- Emerson: Trump +1 vs Pete, +4 vs Biden, +7 vs warren/sanders
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Author Topic: Iowa- Emerson: Trump +1 vs Pete, +4 vs Biden, +7 vs warren/sanders  (Read 1235 times)
marty
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« on: December 10, 2019, 09:30:54 pm »

Quote
President Trump leads all potential Democratic opponents in head to head matchups in Iowa. The President leads Buttigieg by a point 46% to 45%. Against Biden, he leads 49% to 45%, and against Sanders and Warren he leads 50% to 43%. This is a shift from the previous Emerson Iowa poll, in which Sanders lead Trump by a point, and Biden and Warren trailed Trump by two points.

With the impeachment investigations reaching a boiling point in D.C., opposition to impeachment in the Hawkeye state sits at 50% while 38% are supportive of it. 12% of Iowans still have yet to make up their minds about the issue. Despite the recent hearings and pressure from the House Democrats, support for impeachment has dropped slightly since the last Emerson Iowa poll in mid-October when 48% opposed impeachment, 42% supported it, and 10% were unsure.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-warren-s-support-drops-while-sanders-rises
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Cinemark
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« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2019, 09:34:14 pm »

I'm glad Emerson is branching away from Amazon Turk for their online surveys.

Anyway, seems believable. Iowa seems like a state that will trend hard towards democrats in 2020, but not enough for Trump to lose it.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2019, 09:35:43 pm »

Trump is favored to win Iowa, but he still will lose
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2019, 09:37:07 pm »

This reminds me of the 2013 polling that showed Republicans doing well on issue surveys on everything except the shutdown, and we saw what happened in 2014 and 2016, particularly with the immigration issue at the forefront in the latter and to some extent in the former and that was one of the issues listed.

Democrats should focus on health care and the trade war if they want to do well in Iowa.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2019, 09:40:11 pm »

Dems have all but given up on defeating Ernst, she is pragmatic; whereas: TX, GA are better targets with GOTV effort on Senate races
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2019, 10:08:14 pm »

This reminds me of the 2013 polling that showed Republicans doing well on issue surveys on everything except the shutdown, and we saw what happened in 2014 and 2016, particularly with the immigration issue at the forefront in the latter and to some extent in the former and that was one of the issues listed.

Democrats should focus on health care and the trade war if they want to do well in Iowa.

I can totally see Trump winning Iowa by only 4 this time, but I just can't see him losing.  The same dynamic could make MN a lot safer for the Dem than last time though. 

If there is a real farm/ag backlash,  wonder if some of the massive EV/PV gap showing up in recent polls is Trump only winning most of the Plains states by 10ish instead of 25?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2019, 11:50:48 pm »

#IAMoreLikelyToFlipThanFLandGA
#IAAsCompetitiveAsWI
#IATossupButOHSafeR

Itís certainly possible that IA trends 1-3% Democratic in 2020 (similar to NV 2008-2012 if you want an analogy or "redux"), but thereís no way the state is a pure Tossup in a close race or that Trump is more likely to lose IA than FL or GA. This is a ridiculous take.
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Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud
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« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2019, 11:56:15 pm »

#IAMoreLikelyToFlipThanFLandGA
#IAAsCompetitiveAsWI
#IATossupButOHSafeR

Itís certainly possible that IA trends 1-3% Democratic in 2020 (similar to NV 2008-2012 if you want an analogy or "redux"), but thereís no way the state is a pure Tossup in a close race or that Trump is more likely to lose IA than FL or GA. This is a ridiculous take.

Someone would have to be on drugs to say Trump is more likely to lose IA than Florida. I can see someone saying that about GA (though I would disagree, especially after 2018 cemented 2016 trends), but I can't imagine anyone on this forum saying the former.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2019, 12:02:47 am »

Someone would have to be on drugs to say Trump is more likely to lose IA than Florida. I can see someone saying that about GA (though I would disagree, especially after 2018 cemented 2016 trends), but I can't imagine anyone on this forum saying the former.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=349920.0

I know it sounds like a straw man, but it isnít.
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DTC
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« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2019, 12:04:30 am »

#IAMoreLikelyToFlipThanFLandGA
#IAAsCompetitiveAsWI
#IATossupButOHSafeR

Itís certainly possible that IA trends 1-3% Democratic in 2020 (similar to NV 2008-2012 if you want an analogy or "redux"), but thereís no way the state is a pure Tossup in a close race or that Trump is more likely to lose IA than FL or GA. This is a ridiculous take.


I think Iowa will be slightly to the left of GA if Pete Buttigeg is the nominee. Pete consistently polls poorly with black people while polling great with white people. I don't think this will change much in a GE.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2019, 12:06:54 am »

Dems are $$$ on winning TX, and ita 38 EC votes, who cares about IA6
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2019, 12:08:52 am »

Confirms the notion that Pete is the most competetive candidate in states where people know him and where he has an 80% name recognition.

Of course he trails by a bigger margin in states where he only has a 20% name recognition like VA, MT etc. or in most other states ...
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Annatar
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2019, 12:13:28 am »

I'm very sceptical of polls like this showing Trump's approval is lower in Iowa than Wisconsin, Marquette has Trump's approval at 47% in Wisconsin, it's not really possible it's only 45% on Iowa.

Iowa is basically a smaller and more Republican version of Wisconsin, it's whiter, it's more rural, fewer big metro area's and 1.3% less of it's adult population has a bachelor's degree or higher. Whatever happens in 2020, Iowa is guaranteed to vote more Republican than Wisconsin so I can't really see how Trump's approval is only 45% in Iowa if it's 47% in Wisconsin.

With that being said, it's good news for Trump he's hitting 49-50% of the vote against all the democrats except Buttigieg despite only being at 45% approval, I can see him getting around 53-54% of the vote in Iowa next year and winning it 53-45 or 54-44 since his real approval rating in Iowa is likely closer to 50%, a few points higher than Wisconsin.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2019, 03:30:27 am »

Itís also a very good new for Ernst as she will likely over perform Trump a bit
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2019, 03:32:02 am »

Lean R. It's Memerson and 11 months to go, but if Dems can't win IA where Mr. Trump's approval rating is underwater by double digits, it's concerning.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: December 11, 2019, 03:39:20 am »

Lean R. It's Memerson and 11 months to go, but if Dems can't win IA where Mr. Trump's approval rating is underwater by double digits, it's concerning.

No, itís not underwater by double digits, itís just that Morning Consult is a trash pollster (heís not more unpopular in IA than in VA either).

His approval rating in this poll is -1 (45/46), opposition to impeachment is at +12 (50/38). Much more believable than Morning Consult's numbers.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #16 on: December 11, 2019, 05:22:12 am »

Lean R. It's Memerson and 11 months to go, but if Dems can't win IA where Mr. Trump's approval rating is underwater by double digits, it's concerning.

No, itís not underwater by double digits, itís just that Morning Consult is a trash pollster (heís not more unpopular in IA than in VA either).

His approval rating in this poll is -1 (45/46), opposition to impeachment is at +12 (50/38). Much more believable than Morning Consult's numbers.

Well, MC has Trump underwater in Nebraska
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PrisonerOfHope
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« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2019, 12:07:29 am »

Dems are $$$ on winning TX, and ita 38 EC votes, who cares about IA6
AZ, GA  and quadrenials FL, OH, NC all better investments than TX.  But yeah, IA is pretty useless.  Given current polling posted here, and keeping GA tossup at best, leaves Dem. short -23.  Thats FL or 2 big states.  That so much time and money goes into IA, primary and general, is just insane.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: December 12, 2019, 02:34:49 am »

Emerson Poll... not to mention that the Iowa DEM Caucuses still include ranking voting choices....

Last time I checked there is something called "leading indicators" vs "lagging indicators"....

Personally at this point I would say in the words of the famous Chuck D: "Don't believe the Hype"
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #19 on: December 12, 2019, 07:12:57 am »

Iowa can be won, but Dems arent defeating Ernst, but Dems can sweep the House races and King seat
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
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« Reply #20 on: December 12, 2019, 08:53:51 am »

Investing in Iowa is wise since all six-wide races can be won here.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2019, 03:05:18 pm »

Yeah, Iowans are divided, they like their Dem congressmen, but they like Ernst and Reynolds, even in a wave, like we saw in 2018, Ernst can survive, just like Reynolds did, but Steve King can lose, and JD Scholten can run for the open seat in IA for Sen in 2022
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indietraveler
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« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2019, 04:47:45 pm »

Lean R still. Won't be surprised if the final result here is similar to the 2018 governor's race. Which means MI and PA flip back and the true tossups are AZ and WI.

Even if he wins here it will be significantly slimmer than this 2016 win. I think a lot of people are still underestimating how disliked Clinton is here (and throughout the midwest).

Ernst will be safe.
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