Sanders electorate vs. Clinton electorate (user search)
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  Sanders electorate vs. Clinton electorate (search mode)
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Author Topic: Sanders electorate vs. Clinton electorate  (Read 1609 times)
Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,947
United States


« on: December 10, 2019, 04:55:19 PM »

I posted something similar regarding the Cruz vs. Trump electorate, so I wanted to post this for the Democratic primary.

In Identity Crisis by John Sides et. al, the authors noted pointed to some key differences between the Sanders and Clinton electorate:

-Clinton voters were far more diverse (e.g. Clinton won 77% of black voters and 51% of white voters)
-Sanders voters were far younger (Clinton won two-thirds of voters over 45, about half of voters between the ages of 30-45, and one-third of voters under 30)
-Self-identified Democrats were more likely to support Clinton, Democratic-leaning independents were more likely to support Sanders.
-Sanders voters expressed more economic anxiety and more concern about economic inequality

Some other differences:
-Clinton won 62% of women and 50% of men
-Clinton did quite poorly with the relatively small number of Democratic primary voters who expressed sexist attitudes
-Sanders did better among self-identified liberals than with self-identified moderates
-Sanders voters expressed less trust in government
-Sanders voters were a little more likely to favor raising the minimum wage and increasing government spending for child care

Some things that weren't strongly correlated with support for Sanders or Clinton:
-Racial attitudes among whites (which were a key factor in the Republican primary)
-Views on trade, taxes, or healthcare
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Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,947
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2019, 02:42:20 AM »

I think the race gap is misleading because older Democrats in certain states are disproportionately black or hispanic.

I think Sides et. al would disagree with this interpretation, as they seemed to view race as the single most important factor, followed by partisan identity.
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Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,947
United States


« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2019, 12:16:31 PM »

Age was the single largest difference in 2016. Even when looking at racial preferences (which on the surface perhaps seemed like the strongest divide), they more or less dissolve - at least in absolute terms - in the context of age.

I think it's reasonable to argue that age was the largest difference, but I don't think it completely overrode race. E.g. exit polls found that Sanders won about 50 percent of black voters under 30, which was a major underperformance compared to Sanders's overall share of the under-30 vote. Yougov also found that Clinton did better with non-whites over 45 than she did with whites over 45, and that she did better with non-whites under 45 than she did with whites under 45.
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