Sanders electorate vs. Clinton electorate
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  Sanders electorate vs. Clinton electorate
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Author Topic: Sanders electorate vs. Clinton electorate  (Read 1578 times)
Orser67
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« on: December 10, 2019, 04:55:19 PM »

I posted something similar regarding the Cruz vs. Trump electorate, so I wanted to post this for the Democratic primary.

In Identity Crisis by John Sides et. al, the authors noted pointed to some key differences between the Sanders and Clinton electorate:

-Clinton voters were far more diverse (e.g. Clinton won 77% of black voters and 51% of white voters)
-Sanders voters were far younger (Clinton won two-thirds of voters over 45, about half of voters between the ages of 30-45, and one-third of voters under 30)
-Self-identified Democrats were more likely to support Clinton, Democratic-leaning independents were more likely to support Sanders.
-Sanders voters expressed more economic anxiety and more concern about economic inequality

Some other differences:
-Clinton won 62% of women and 50% of men
-Clinton did quite poorly with the relatively small number of Democratic primary voters who expressed sexist attitudes
-Sanders did better among self-identified liberals than with self-identified moderates
-Sanders voters expressed less trust in government
-Sanders voters were a little more likely to favor raising the minimum wage and increasing government spending for child care

Some things that weren't strongly correlated with support for Sanders or Clinton:
-Racial attitudes among whites (which were a key factor in the Republican primary)
-Views on trade, taxes, or healthcare
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2019, 04:59:17 PM »

I think the race gap is misleading because older Democrats in certain states are disproportionately black or hispanic.
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Orser67
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« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2019, 02:42:20 AM »

I think the race gap is misleading because older Democrats in certain states are disproportionately black or hispanic.

I think Sides et. al would disagree with this interpretation, as they seemed to view race as the single most important factor, followed by partisan identity.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2019, 05:02:55 AM »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 05:06:05 AM by President Griffin »

Age was the single largest difference in 2016. Even when looking at racial preferences (which on the surface perhaps seemed like the strongest divide), they more or less dissolve - at least in absolute terms - in the context of age.

As one example, Clinton did not win any racial group among Millennials, but barnstormed among every racial group over the age of 55. Put another way: white and black senior citizens were closer in candidate preference than white (or black) seniors & Millennials.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2019, 06:32:49 AM »

And don't forget how they voted in the GE: Clinton voters 97% for Clinton, Sanders voters 68-15-4-7 for Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2019, 07:58:26 AM »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 08:07:29 AM by Epaminondas »

And don't forget how they voted in the GE: Clinton voters 97% for Clinton, Sanders voters 68-15-4-7 for Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein.

It's no surprise that party stalwarts would shun the unusual candidate in favour of Clinton.

Was Sanders bringing in Indies/Repubs to the Dem fold a bad thing?
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Orser67
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« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2019, 12:16:31 PM »

Age was the single largest difference in 2016. Even when looking at racial preferences (which on the surface perhaps seemed like the strongest divide), they more or less dissolve - at least in absolute terms - in the context of age.

I think it's reasonable to argue that age was the largest difference, but I don't think it completely overrode race. E.g. exit polls found that Sanders won about 50 percent of black voters under 30, which was a major underperformance compared to Sanders's overall share of the under-30 vote. Yougov also found that Clinton did better with non-whites over 45 than she did with whites over 45, and that she did better with non-whites under 45 than she did with whites under 45.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2019, 12:37:02 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2019, 12:40:32 PM by President Griffin »

Age was the single largest difference in 2016. Even when looking at racial preferences (which on the surface perhaps seemed like the strongest divide), they more or less dissolve - at least in absolute terms - in the context of age.

I think it's reasonable to argue that age was the largest difference, but I don't think it completely overrode race. E.g. exit polls found that Sanders won about 50 percent of black voters under 30, which was a major underperformance compared to Sanders's overall share of the under-30 vote. Yougov also found that Clinton did better with non-whites over 45 than she did with whites over 45, and that she did better with non-whites under 45 than she did with whites under 45.

By "dissolving it (in absolute terms)", I meant that unlike with race alone, comparisons across age and race mostly show all racial groups of a particular age range supported the same candidate (by different margins obviously); young blacks, whites & others all voted for the same candidate, as did older blacks, whites and others. Among all race of a particular generation or age range, there was general agreement on who to back, even if the support levels did vary.

As far as the race gap goes, it looks relatively small by itself; it was basically 35-40 points between the two most contrasting groups (black and white). Along age lines, there was a nearly 80-point gap between the youngest and oldest voters (70-30 vs 70-30). Said age gap more or less was the same for blacks (50-50 vs 85-15) and whites (75-25 vs 65-35) alike.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2019, 01:04:25 PM »
« Edited: December 15, 2019, 01:18:50 PM by mathstatman »

And don't forget how they voted in the GE: Clinton voters 97% for Clinton, Sanders voters 68-15-4-7 for Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein.

It's no surprise that party stalwarts would shun the unusual candidate in favour of Clinton.

Was Sanders bringing in Indies/Repubs to the Dem fold a bad thing?
Not at all, and I'm not sure Sanders brought them into the Dem fold so much as he brought them into the political process, period. (Though I'm sure the lion's share of those who credit Sanders with waking them from apathy voted Dem for Congress in 2018).
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2019, 01:18:19 PM »

In the MI Dem Presidential Primary on March 8, 2016, both Macomb and Oakland voted with the loser (Clinton), a rare thing. Wayne of course went strongly for Clinton, with Washtenaw and Ann Arbor voting for Sanders (though not overwhelmingly).

Macomb is pretty monolithically conservative, white, and Catholic or Evangelical (in fact, a high 3.8% voted for neither in the Dem primary; Macomb still has many conservative Dems who vote GOP for President and Dem for lower offices). In Oakland, however, particularly south Oakland, one can drive a mile or two and enter a community with significantly different demographics and politics that the community one just left. As an example, Ferndale and Huntington Woods are within a mile of each other on Woodward Ave in south Oakland County. Both communities are decidedly liberal and left-leaning; downscale, funky, youthful Ferndale (which shares an 8 Mile Rd border with Detroit) has a large LGBT population, while upscale, highly educated HW has a large Jewish population. In the March 8 primary, Ferndale voted over 68% Sanders, in fact Ferndale was Sanders' best community in Oakland County; HW voted 52-47 Clinton. In November, Ferndale swung slightly to Trump (76-22 to 71-21) while HW swing strongly to Clinton (70-29 to 76-19). Ferndale voters were nearly 3 times as likely as HW voters to pick Jill Stein. Adjacent to Ferndale is downscale Hazel Park, which also shares an 8 Mile Rd border with Detroit and a Dequindre Rd border with Macomb County. Well into the 2000s HP was "hillbilly heaven"; lately some of the youth and funk of Ferndale has spilled over into HP. HP also voted Sanders in the primary, and swung strongly to Trump (66-32 to 54-39, with over 7% voting 3rd party).
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Gracile
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« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2020, 04:07:07 PM »
« Edited: January 01, 2020, 04:12:33 PM by gracile »

As much as people like to talk about the stereotypical Sanders-Trump voter as being fervently anti-Clinton leftists, a good chunk of those voters were people who have effectively been Republicans for several elections (at least on the presidential level) but voted in the Democratic primary as it was their registered party in a closed primary state. Their vote for Sanders was largely just a protest vote against Clinton.
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