Rate KY-Gov 2023

[Strong Candidate]

I'm going to say Toss-up, since in this day and age it is difficult for even popular Democrats to win in red states, but since Kentucky's governership is so weak (which tends to beget strong approval ratings) I would probably call him a favorite in you were to put a gun to my head.

[Xing]

Way too soon to say for sure. I'd say that if he's unpopular, he'll very likely lose. If he's popular, he could certainly win re-election, though it would depend on his opponent, the national environment, and how popular he is. This far out, doesn't make sense to call it anything more than a Toss-Up, I guess.

[Roll Roons]

I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say Lean D. "Crossover" governors tend to be popular (Baker, Hogan, Scott, JBE, Kelly, Bullock or Steve Beshear). Andy Beshear knows he can't do anything too liberal, so I think he'll govern as a competent pragmatist who doesn't try to pick fights, and he'll get high marks for that, especially when compared to his predecessor.

[TML]

We’ll have to take Beshear’s approval rating in 2023 into account when rating this race. Remember that of the last three KY governors to run for re-election, the one with a relatively high approval rating won re-election, while the two with relatively low approval ratings lost their seats.

[😥]

Lean D

[One Term Floridian]

Lol let's at least wait for Beshear to get inaugurated before prognosticating his re-election chances. Since KY is such a red state, his chances depend on his governing/campaigning style as well as the national environment and potential nascent local issues that will pop up in 2023. I have no rating since we will have to wait and see for at least about two years

[ElectionsGuy]

Yeah, I'm not going to do that yet.

[Strong Candidate]

Y'all should be willing to be more fearless. No one is actually going to hold you to these ratings in 2023, lol (also, he has been sworn in now, although that doesn't really change the substance of your comments, obviously).

[SnowLabrador]

Likely R flip. Unless Matt Bevin runs again, he's done.

[Galeel]

Lean R right now. Subject to change obviously.

[Skill and Chance]

Likely R.  In recent times, the "only won because their opponent was nutty/incompetent" effect is about 10% of the vote and he only beat Bevin by 0.4%, so I think the baseline expectation for 2023 is an 8-10% win for Generic R.  Of course, JBE did just get reelected, but he managed to beat scandalized Vitter by 12%, suggesting he may have won anyway against a Generic R back in 2015.

[DINGO Joe]

Now that voting rights are restored to former felons, titanium D.

[jamestroll]

Likely R.  In recent times, the "only won because their opponent was nutty/incompetent" effect is about 10% of the vote and he only beat Bevin by 0.4%, so I think the baseline expectation for 2023 is an 8-10% win for Generic R.  Of course, JBE did just get reelected, but he managed to beat scandalized Vitter by 12%, suggesting he may have won anyway against a Generic R back in 2015.

I mean...  a lot of what you said is just true and I would agree JBE may have a shot against a generic R in 2015. But look how much changed from 2015 to 2019. Who knows how the climate will be like in 2023.

For all we know Beashear is elected by a 10 point margin due to lopsided margins in the Cincinnati burbs.

Also, not all midterm and off year elections will necessarily go against a presidents party. Though the 2002 GOP wave was over stated.

[Skill and Chance]

Likely R.  In recent times, the "only won because their opponent was nutty/incompetent" effect is about 10% of the vote and he only beat Bevin by 0.4%, so I think the baseline expectation for 2023 is an 8-10% win for Generic R.  Of course, JBE did just get reelected, but he managed to beat scandalized Vitter by 12%, suggesting he may have won anyway against a Generic R back in 2015.

I mean...  a lot of what you said is just true and I would agree JBE may have a shot against a generic R in 2015. But look how much changed from 2015 to 2019. Who knows how the climate will be like in 2023.

For all we know Beashear is elected by a 10 point margin due to lopsided margins in the Cincinnati burbs.

Also, not all midterm and off year elections will necessarily go against a presidents party. Though the 2002 GOP wave was over stated.

I mean, he obviously has a better chance with a Trump reelection than with a Dem president and an economic crash, but I don't see any way he goes into 2023 favored for reelection.

[TDAS04]

It's pretty early, but I'll say tossup/tilt D.

[bagelman]

Lean R right now. Subject to change obviously.