AZ-OHPI: Biden/Buttigieg -2, Warren -6, Bloomberg -7, Sanders -13

[MT Treasurer]

1) Biden will be the nominee.
2) This is a fairly GOP-friendly pollster.
3) Democrats tend to outperform their pre-election polling in AZ.
4) Trump is clearly doing worse here than in several Obama/Trump Midwestern states.

Like WI for Democrats, this is not a state Republicans should count on.

[MT Treasurer]

1) Biden will be the nominee.
2) This is a fairly GOP-friendly pollster.
3) Democrats tend to outperform their pre-election polling in AZ.
4) Trump is clearly doing worse here than in several Obama/Trump Midwestern states.

Like WI for Democrats, this is not a state Republicans should count on.

*Trump leads in Iowa*
OMG THIS POLL IS TRUTH
*Trump leads in Arizona*
Junk, D trending state is Lean D, *mental gymnastics*

Yeah, Trump leading by 2% in a state where polling has underestimated Democratic strength recently in a poll which had McSally winning is surely good news for him. Clearly this poll/2018/"""elasticity""" means that the Republican-trending Trump +9 state is more likely to flip than the Romney +9/Trump +3 state.

[MT Treasurer]

^Nah, I’m not saying Trump is the underdog in AZ because of the 2018 results, just that this particular pollster had McSally winning in 2018. That’s all.

Also agree that AZ isn’t much more likely to flip than PA.