Firehouse (R) : Trump leads in PA, MI and WI against every democratic candidate

[junior chįmp]

Yeah, it's an R internal, but it still shows significant movement against Dems.

Impeachment is a disaster.

Who could've possibly seen this coming?

How is impeachment a disaster when a majority supports it in most (credible) polls? The idea that Trump should be allowed to get away with murder just so it won't make his supporters angry is  ridiculous. With that said, a Republican poll is trash and no one should be taking it seriously.

It's not so much that impeachment has backfired....its that the idiot voters dont care and arent paying attention. You can ignore the polls all you want but its certainly not a fluke: Trump is an incumbent and the economy is good. For most voters living world land....that's enough to re'elect him

[DrScholl]

Yeah, it's an R internal, but it still shows significant movement against Dems.

Impeachment is a disaster.

Who could've possibly seen this coming?

How is impeachment a disaster when a majority supports it in most (credible) polls? The idea that Trump should be allowed to get away with murder just so it won't make his supporters angry is  ridiculous. With that said, a Republican poll is trash and no one should be taking it seriously.

It's not so much that impeachment has backfired....its that the idiot voters dont care and arent paying attention. You can ignore the polls all you want but its certainly not a fluke: Trump is an incumbent and the economy is good. For most voters living world land....that's enough to re'elect him

I didn't say I was ignoring polls. What I stated is that a Republican poll shouldn't be believed because they have a history of being inaccurate by weighted by party idea and subtracting numbers based on "well, it feels like 2016, duh, duh, duh" or some other crazy historical reasoning.

Even if the economy is good people hate Trump as a person. Not as a President, as a person. If he was a regular person without an office people would spit on him on that street because he is disgusting. That is what his downfall will be, but some people can't see it.

[Roblox]

The emerson polls showing double digit democratic leads in these states were junk and so if this one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse is given a tentative C/D in 538's ratings, which means they don't have enough polls for a good sample yet, but they appear to be a below average pollster

[Hammy]

The emerson polls showing double digit democratic leads in these states were junk and so if this one.

Emerson is junk simply by being Emerson.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cant wait til someone finally beats Biden and hopefully Bernie does in IA and NH. The primaries arent over, Biden is corrupted

I see the usuals like President Johnson or General MacArthur arent responding to this poll showing Biden losing 😖😖😖

[Skill and Chance]

Inflated, but illustrates why Democrats can’t afford to concede FL and GA. If they have to rely on WI to put them over the top, they’re probably going to be very disappointed (and no, WI almost certainly isn’t voting to the left of PA and MI, this is such a ridiculously contrarian take).

#FloridaRecount

#DemocratsLovetheECAgain

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Inflated, but illustrates why Democrats can’t afford to concede FL and GA. If they have to rely on WI to put them over the top, they’re probably going to be very disappointed (and no, WI almost certainly isn’t voting to the left of PA and MI, this is such a ridiculously contrarian take).

#FloridaRecount

#DemocratsLovetheECAgain

GA isnt gonna vote to the left of OH, the GA runoff will favor Perdue, its Perdue v Nunn and Biden is only up by 1 in GA well within margin of error.

I remember Perdue was trailing Nunn and polls exacerbated her lead

[DabbingSanta]

Firehouse showed Democrats ahead by a pretty large margin in previous polls. If results like these happen Trump will easily win 350+ EVs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Firehouse showed Democrats ahead by a pretty large margin in previous polls. If results like these happen Trump will easily win 350+ EVs.

This just shows that a landslide is not going to happen

[President Johnson]

Cant wait til someone finally beats Biden and hopefully Bernie does in IA and NH. The primaries arent over, Biden is corrupted

I see the usuals like President Johnson or General MacArthur arent responding to this poll showing Biden losing 😖😖😖

Man, you change your prediction every day or once a new poll gets out. Today Biden is doomed, tomorrow when a new poll is out having him ahead, he's inevitable. It's also a bunch of malarkey to claim he's "corrupted", when there is zero evidence of any wrongdoings by Joe Biden. All this does is playing into the hands of Donald J. Trump and his crownies, who are essentially taking marching orders from the Kremlin now with this Biden-Ukraine hoax.  

As already pointed out, it's a Republican pollster and there is no way some of the other Democrats than Biden would do that poorly in these states. However, Democrats must put a much bigger effort into these Rust Belt states than they did in 2016. They also need to go for the Sun Belt as a backup (for which Biden is the best suited candidate).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cant wait til someone finally beats Biden and hopefully Bernie does in IA and NH. The primaries arent over, Biden is corrupted

I see the usuals like President Johnson or General MacArthur arent responding to this poll showing Biden losing 😖😖😖

Man, you change your prediction every day or once a new poll gets out. Today Biden is doomed, tomorrow when a new poll is out having him ahead, he's inevitable. It's also a bunch of malarkey to claim he's "corrupted", when there is zero evidence of any wrongdoings by Joe Biden. All this does is playing into the hands of Donald J. Trump and his crownies, who are essentially taking marching orders from the Kremlin now with this Biden-Ukraine hoax.  

As already pointed out, it's a Republican pollster and there is no way some of the other Democrats than Biden would do that poorly in these states. However, Democrats must put a much bigger effort into these Rust Belt states than they did in 2016. They also need to go for the Sun Belt as a backup (for which Biden is the best suited candidate).

The reason why he doesnt appear to be corrupted, because the House Dems exonerated Biden, we didnt have the other side in the impeachment case, due to partisan politics.  This is the very reason why Romney, Ermst and Collins, the pragmatic Rs in the Senate are gonna acquit Trump because the media, except for Fox news isnt showing both sides.  You cant fool me that Biden isnt corrupted, why is he losing to Bernie in IA and NH, Biden isnt the nominee.

[pbrower2a]

Contrast the polls of Firehouse Strategies to a pollster with a long track record:

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us12102019_uwhp13.pdf/

Biden/Trump: 52-41
Sanders/Trump: 51-43
Warren/Trump: 50-43
Buttigieg/Trump: 48-43
Bloomberg/Trump: 48-42
Klobuchar/Trump: 47-43

That is nationwide, and to some extent we have apples and oranges.  If the Firehouse Strategies poll  is true, then Trump is winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but absorbing huge losses of support in states that he won by huge margins. The only way in which such is possible is if America has something like a 1976 electorate... which is even more absurd.

[SN2903]

Although he's not up by that much I def think Trump is ahead in all 3. Democrats seriously are running a pathetic campaign and anyone who says otherwise is simply blind to what is going on.

[pbrower2a]

Although he's not up by that much I def think Trump is ahead in all 3. Democrats seriously are running a pathetic campaign and anyone who says otherwise is simply blind to what is going on.

If Trump is up on the Democrats it is not by much -- and at a low level... maybe 43-41 in those states. That is worthless. For an incumbent at this point he needs to be putting away his opposition. He needs to be at a level in which he is close enough to 50% support that he can campaign a little as needed and win the critical states.

Trump is the incumbent, dammit! He owns the national agenda if he is halfway competent... but much of the topic in discussion is his moral inadequacy and his contempt for a majority of Americans.   

[pbrower2a]

OK. In anything close to an even election in the popular vote, President Trump wins. Howe is this? Figure that the Democrat is winning the following states on percentages like these. I ordinarily show margins, recognizing no practical difference between on track to win 56% of the popular vote in a state and being on track to win 80%. The only state that Republicans have won by a 20% or higher margin since 1988 that has more than twelve electoral votes since the 1990's has been Texas... except for Texas, Republicans tend to win electorally small states and win with small margins in medium-to-large states when they do win (such states have been AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI) while Democrats run up huge margins in some states in which they have electoral locks.       

The 70% shade is for states in which the Democratic nominee will get 65 to 75% of the popular vote, and the 60% shade is for states in which the Democrat is going to get 55% to 65% of the popular vote. That gives impressive results for the Democrat for 208 electoral votes. But -- there are 330 other electoral votes... and if the Democrat has run up a 65-35 margin for 208 electoral votes and is close to even nationwide, then guess what that means for the other states. The Democrat is getting 42% elsewhere. OK, maybe the Democrat manages to eke out wins in Maine at-large, Minnesota (because it is Minnesota), New Hampshire, and Nevada.. and this time wins Michigan by a razor-thin margin. Trump gets re-elected with a 45% share of the vote nationwide as a portent of how the vote goes for the next twenty years.

Democrats are not trying to run up gigantic vote totals in sixteen states while neglecting the rest. They can do that without really trying; 2016 shows that such is a losing strategy. This is about what Republicans would let happen if they had locks on state legislatures and statewide public offices... and let foreign powers interfere with electioneering in places in which Democrats have no lock. Republicans will get away with such because the states that Democrats win reliably are generally better in social conditions (Nevada, New Mexico, and possibly Illinois and Rhode Island excepted) and Republicans will have no problems with rioters in states like Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (just mow 'em down)... maybe assign people's votes to their employers. 

OK, that is a bleak view. That is about how Hungary was between the two World Wars -- split neatly and almost evenly between the Hard Right and the Hard Left, but eventually the Right conceded Budapest to the Left and took complete control of everything else. The Right dominated in electoral politics, and eventually the fascist butchers took over as the Soviet Army got uncomfortably close.

OK, politicians cannot reliably bank votes in swing states.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Although he's not up by that much I def think Trump is ahead in all 3. Democrats seriously are running a pathetic campaign and anyone who says otherwise is simply blind to what is going on.

This is why Bernie is getting a second look and the voters haven't decided yet, polls underestimate Trump's strength, but Gary Johnson took vital votes away from Hilary too, as her corruption,  like Biden's was a factor in caucasians voting Trump or third party, not AA votes. UK election taught us that, dont underestimate Conservatives, when it comes to Boris and Trump. As the 23 T dollar deficit, causes more entitlement cuts instead of more spending on programs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OK. In anything close to an even election in the popular vote, President Trump wins. Howe is this? Figure that the Democrat is winning the following states on percentages like these. I ordinarily show margins, recognizing no practical difference between on track to win 56% of the popular vote in a state and being on track to win 80%. The only state that Republicans have won by a 20% or higher margin since 1988 that has more than twelve electoral votes since the 1990's has been Texas... except for Texas, Republicans tend to win electorally small states and win with small margins in medium-to-large states when they do win (such states have been AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI) while Democrats run up huge margins in some states in which they have electoral locks.       

The 70% shade is for states in which the Democratic nominee will get 65 to 75% of the popular vote, and the 60% shade is for states in which the Democrat is going to get 55% to 65% of the popular vote. That gives impressive results for the Democrat for 208 electoral votes. But -- there are 330 other electoral votes... and if the Democrat has run up a 65-35 margin for 208 electoral votes and is close to even nationwide, then guess what that means for the other states. The Democrat is getting 42% elsewhere. OK, maybe the Democrat manages to eke out wins in Maine at-large, Minnesota (because it is Minnesota), New Hampshire, and Nevada.. and this time wins Michigan by a razor-thin margin. Trump gets re-elected with a 45% share of the vote nationwide as a portent of how the vote goes for the next twenty years.

Democrats are not trying to run up gigantic vote totals in sixteen states while neglecting the rest. They can do that without really trying; 2016 shows that such is a losing strategy. This is about what Republicans would let happen if they had locks on state legislatures and statewide public offices... and let foreign powers interfere with electioneering in places in which Democrats have no lock. Republicans will get away with such because the states that Democrats win reliably are generally better in social conditions (Nevada, New Mexico, and possibly Illinois and Rhode Island excepted) and Republicans will have no problems with rioters in states like Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (just mow 'em down)... maybe assign people's votes to their employers. 

OK, that is a bleak view. That is about how Hungary was between the two World Wars -- split neatly and almost evenly between the Hard Right and the Hard Left, but eventually the Right conceded Budapest to the Left and took complete control of everything else. The Right dominated in electoral politics, and eventually the fascist butchers took over as the Soviet Army got uncomfortably close.

OK, politicians cannot reliably bank votes in swing states.   

This is a freiwall map but Biden does best in TX, GA and AZ, than MI, WI and PA, we can have a diverse election

[pbrower2a]

OK. In anything close to an even election in the popular vote, President Trump wins. Howe is this? Figure that the Democrat is winning the following states on percentages like these. I ordinarily show margins, recognizing no practical difference between on track to win 56% of the popular vote in a state and being on track to win 80%. The only state that Republicans have won by a 20% or higher margin since 1988 that has more than twelve electoral votes since the 1990's has been Texas... except for Texas, Republicans tend to win electorally small states and win with small margins in medium-to-large states when they do win (such states have been AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI) while Democrats run up huge margins in some states in which they have electoral locks.       

The 70% shade is for states in which the Democratic nominee will get 65 to 75% of the popular vote, and the 60% shade is for states in which the Democrat is going to get 55% to 65% of the popular vote. That gives impressive results for the Democrat for 208 electoral votes. But -- there are 330 other electoral votes... and if the Democrat has run up a 65-35 margin for 208 electoral votes and is close to even nationwide, then guess what that means for the other states. The Democrat is getting 42% elsewhere. OK, maybe the Democrat manages to eke out wins in Maine at-large, Minnesota (because it is Minnesota), New Hampshire, and Nevada.. and this time wins Michigan by a razor-thin margin. Trump gets re-elected with a 45% share of the vote nationwide as a portent of how the vote goes for the next twenty years.

Democrats are not trying to run up gigantic vote totals in sixteen states while neglecting the rest. They can do that without really trying; 2016 shows that such is a losing strategy. This is about what Republicans would let happen if they had locks on state legislatures and statewide public offices... and let foreign powers interfere with electioneering in places in which Democrats have no lock. Republicans will get away with such because the states that Democrats win reliably are generally better in social conditions (Nevada, New Mexico, and possibly Illinois and Rhode Island excepted) and Republicans will have no problems with rioters in states like Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (just mow 'em down)... maybe assign people's votes to their employers. 

OK, that is a bleak view. That is about how Hungary was between the two World Wars -- split neatly and almost evenly between the Hard Right and the Hard Left, but eventually the Right conceded Budapest to the Left and took complete control of everything else. The Right dominated in electoral politics, and eventually the fascist butchers took over as the Soviet Army got uncomfortably close.

OK, politicians cannot reliably bank votes in swing states.   

This is a freiwall map but Biden does best in TX, GA and AZ, than MI, WI and PA, we can have a diverse election

True... but such suggests a return to electoral politics characteristic of the 1970's, which seems highly unlikely. On the other hand, Barack Obama won big with electoral maps closer to those of Eisenhower wins than to any others, except that the Parties were flipped. Carter was the last Democratic nominee to win Texas.

In any event we have plenty of warning signs of a Trump defeat. One is that Texas is in contest.